4.5c pls

4.25c please

4.2c

I'll go for 3.85 please GW.

Messed up January, (almost spot on for my area Surrey, but the cold SE corner wasn't elsewhere)

Going to take a punt on Feb, mild start, some cold incursions, more mild periods in the West, but with a very cold end for most of the Eastern side.  Difficult call but 3.7c overall is my guess

I'll go for

4.0C

4.3C please GW. Thanks

4.9 for me please.

3.9C please

3.92C please.

One of those, innit, where some seriously potential-laden output has you pondering, "could this be that really cold month we dream about?", but with not all models online (and memories of the late November 16 hints-that-never-materialised fresh in the mind), do you play it safe?

I'm going to wait until another couple of outputs churn out before I make my guess later tonight 

Another tough call this month; aren't they all though? 

I'll go for 4.8C please.

Well the atlantic is in full flow now and I can`t see it letting up for some considerable time so I'm going for

5.8c

4.2C please GW.

4.8c please GW 

Best background signals for a proper continental flow since late 2010 so I might as well try out that 3.2*C figure again. It would be lower but for the mild start and an inability to believe that any easterly will sustain itself for more than 4-5 days (too much pain in the past half-decade).

You'd be amazed what my rough approximations from recent GFS runs have been doing to the CET after such a mild start - the 12z is the most extreme of all and sends it from near 9*C as of Thursday to 6*C by Monday 6th (chilly weekend) and then... right down to just above 2*C as of 16th 

Amazing as it sounds, I believe ECM would tumble the CET even further, having not been as chilly Tue-Wed next week.

Best background signals for a proper continental flow since late 2010 so I might as well try out that 3.2*C figure again. It would be lower but for the mild start and an inability to believe that any easterly will sustain itself for more than 4-5 days (too much pain in the past half-decade).

You'd be amazed what my rough approximations from recent GFS runs have been doing to the CET after such a mild start - the 12z is the most extreme of all and sends it from near 9*C as of Thursday to 6*C by Monday 6th (chilly weekend) and then... right down to just above 2*C as of 16th 

Amazing as it sounds, I believe ECM would tumble the CET even further, having not been as chilly Tue-Wed next week.

I know where you're coming from given some of the charts I've seen. Still hard to pin down though.