ive just read the weather-outlook winter forecast and It does suggest a cold snap/spell in JAN. followed by mild. there seems to be more mild weather mentioned in the winter 16/17 forecast than cold weather and it does not say anything about long prolonged cold weather but leaning towards more of the mild option/wet and windy. so saying that any cold snaps/spells looks to be short lived, BUT WHO KNOWS

The 06z ensembles are certainly poorer than the 00z.

Roll on the 12z runs! 

From what I recall, is that the cold blast just after the New Year wasn't a certainty a few days ago. Everything seems to be firming up on this.

Should help our chase

Indeed. 

Everyone sometimes just needs to take a bit of a breather and stop making sweeping statements after every run. 

The trend is still very much to be cold and wintry, this mornings runs were very promising. 

The 06z GFES are poorer but it may just be a blip rather than a new trend. 

there seems to be a lot of IFS and BUTS heading towards this MAYBE cold spell. like gavin P just said in his vid if we are on the cold side of the blocking its going to be VERY cold if we are on the mild side of the blocking its going to be very MILD 50/50  like always it looks good from FI viewing but nearer the time it always gets downgraded or becomes the good old fashion RED HERRING

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7866;sess=   matt hugo synoptic guidance 2017 JAN.

All eyes on the 12z, though I have a nasty feeling this is slipping away from what was looking like a decent event, albeit partly in FI. As much as Ian is maligned, his take that the modelling in the gin sea area could have been the difference, this now coming to the table in the 06z output. Very small differences with how any potential height rises are handled here evolve into a huge differences for our part of the world. Personally I don't think strat conditions are helping our cause, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the HP sinking with yet further SW orientated episodes though not particularly zonal.

Massive set of 12z coming up. Let's hope we roll a double 6!

This isn't necessarily a done deal after the 12z runs. The runs could be crap and improve tomorrow, or be decent and backtrack tomorrow.

Nothing is simple and one is at risk of being driven absolutely insane! :-) 

No chance of a cut off low forming as the front pushes southwards as with early December 1990....?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

12z has the first Atlantic high better aligned than the 06z so far

I agree, I never get the " the next run is vital" bit..........

GFS 120

UKMO 120

UKMO 144 - Interesting indeed

12z GFS and MetO both very positive for coldies IMO. 

Indeed, Joe. I've seen much worse charts for coldies in the past; earlier this month at times for starters!

that 6 weeks of zonality sure went quick 

Looking good to me not severe cold but cold frosty and maybe foggy . 

Not a million miles from an easterly into the early reaches of FI.

In the meantime, cold! 

Either that, or I've been asleep for the last six weeks.

Is the a saying New Year New Weather? Perhaps there should be. All rather seasonal with some snow potential - the trend continues.

144 Met O is the pick so far IMO , January could prove to be a very interesting month