The Weather Outlook

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Gandalf The White
28 December 2016 15:52:30

Ensembles point to a couple of topplers, but nothing sustained by any means. We may have to wait until later in January for snow not confined the far north & eastern coastal fringes.
Lots to cherry pick from in the output but generally temps slightly below average will be welcomed after a largely mild & dull December.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I guess you didn't peruse the 06z too carefully?  Some wintry stuff down as far as the Midlands on Sunday; nothing dramatic and probably only with some elevation but it's in line with what you would expect from a northerly with sub-528 dam air (500-1000 hPa).


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Rob K
28 December 2016 16:05:36

 

but that's Aberdeen - for us down here in the extreme south and southwest we have more in common weather wise with bordeaux then Aberdeen.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

But the ensembles for the south look much the same, a degree or two milder of course but the same distance below the mean, and still with a couple of runs flirting with the fabled -15C line: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I really can't see why people are complaining about the output at the moment, when it shows a virtually nailed-on drop of 13C between tomorrow and Monday, and the 850s stay below average right out to the end of the run. What exactly do people want? 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

David M Porter
28 December 2016 16:30:50

 

But the ensembles for the south look much the same, a degree or two milder of course but the same distance below the mean, and still with a couple of runs flirting with the fabled -15C line: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I really can't see why people are complaining about the output at the moment, when it shows a virtually nailed-on drop of 13C between tomorrow and Monday, and the 850s stay below average right out to the end of the run. What exactly do people want? 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Me neither. The output at the moment is IMO somewhat better for coldies than it has been for much of the time since the beginning of December. Even the output back in late November, during the same period the  MetO's 16-30 day updates seemed to be talking up the chances of a cold spell during December, didn't look that spectacular over the piece according to my recollection.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

doctormog
28 December 2016 16:38:28

Impressive to see sub 510dam air over Shetland. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2223.gif 


Bertwhistle
28 December 2016 16:41:24

Impressive to see sub 510dam air over Shetland. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2223.gif 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

That's a great photo / chart; what would it take to get that low, north of Norway, to migrate south?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

doctormog
28 December 2016 16:47:07
I must say that the GFS op runs have been incredibly inconsistent in the medium to longer term. Perhaps we need to bring in the parallel run sooner or stick to the ECM!
Phil G
28 December 2016 16:48:43

 

That's a great photo / chart; what would it take to get that low, north of Norway, to migrate south?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

That's a tight gradient between the deep LP and HP to the north as well. Bit of a wind chill there!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2221.gif

 

 

Rob K
28 December 2016 16:50:02
Currently we seem to be seeing the high staying more or less anchored out to our west and periodically ridging north allowing a cold shot, then collapsing over us, then repeating. Certainly a colder picture than of late but slightly frustrating as it won't retrogress properly and let the floodgates open. On the plus side the Alps look like getting some long-awaited cold and snow before long!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Tractor Boy
28 December 2016 16:50:09

Where is our high going?...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif

 


Dave

Farndale, North York Moors

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
28 December 2016 16:57:07

Oh Oh.  A PV Tumbler High, sends the Cold plunge over Norway Denmark, Poland and Sweden and Germany instead -UKMO shows Sunday a weak brief Northerly incursion then the Week following New Year's Day we are back with a cold bone dry less cold frosty High, slapped SE to UK from Northern Atlantic et all.

Though GFS 12z has plenty of a one day cold and wintry potential Sunday 1st January aka New Year's Day, then after that we have same prediction as from it as it joins the UKMO boring High.

A big Azores Low to the SW of UK High and Iceland to NE Europe Copenhagen Denmark and Germany etc have PV Low's tracking SE from Greenland as at same time at 120-144hrs the Greenland High builds back, then at 144-168 GFS builds to our near West to SW off UK Low Pressure two areas next to each other pointing NE in our direction by Friday 5th and Saturday 6th January it could be back to Low's cross West Central and N UK with chance of cloud and rain where Pressure is lowest and winds stronger.

It GFS tries to turn it into a Bartlett!!.

😎😂😕🌞.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

Rob K
28 December 2016 16:57:21

Where is our high going?...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif

 

Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 

Nowhere fast, as alluded to in my post above... it kind of reminds me of a jellyfish, or maybe an amoeba, pulsating and throwing out the odd tentacle 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gavin D
28 December 2016 16:59:20

Where is our high going?...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif

 

Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 

Nowhere fast

Essan
28 December 2016 17:09:07

But the ensembles for the south look much the same, a degree or two milder of course but the same distance below the mean, and still with a couple of runs flirting with the fabled -15C line: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I really can't see why people are complaining about the output at the moment, when it shows a virtually nailed-on drop of 13C between tomorrow and Monday, and the 850s stay below average right out to the end of the run. What exactly do people want? 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



True, though I am not sure it will make it any colder down here.  Had a max of 2.2c here today under clear skies     Near perfect winters day.


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

Gooner
28 December 2016 17:30:21

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122812/gensnh-0-1-240.png

The control is very different to the OP


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
28 December 2016 17:31:57



True, though I am not sure it will make it any colder down here.  Had a max of 2.2c here today under clear skies     Near perfect winters day.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

2c here today , where the fog lingered it only just got above freezing

A cracking day


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
28 December 2016 17:44:37

ENS look ok

P 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ( cracker ) , 6 ( ish ) , 7 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 17 , 18  ( Belter ),
 
 
Certainly a cold outlook i'd say

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



doctormog
28 December 2016 17:50:42
A very interesting set of ensemble data from the 12z GFS run. Unsurprisingly the op run doesn't really fit the pattern (although that doesn't of course mean it might not be correct)

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0 

Interesting clustering later on.


Air
28 December 2016 17:53:04

A very interesting set of ensemble data from the 12z GFS run. Unsurprisingly the op run doesn't really fit the pattern (although that doesn't of course mean it might not be correct)

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0

Interesting clustering later on.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes the operational really out on its own little adventure when out of the reliable timeframe. As you say that doesn't mean it isn't correct but it is encouraging to see so many perturbations maintaining the cold outlook throughout the run 

roger63
28 December 2016 17:59:13

A very interesting set of ensemble data from the 12z GFS run. Unsurprisingly the op run doesn't really fit the pattern (although that doesn't of course mean it might not be correct)

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0

Interesting clustering later on.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

ENS at 7th jan show majority   strong northerly/north westerlies for 7th Jan.

At 360h a good set of Ens with half being either Scandi or Greenland HP  -I presume that is the clustering you are highlighting  Doc? 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2016 18:09:16

Best gfs ensembles yet this winter.

 

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Karl Guille
28 December 2016 18:10:53
Pretty good ensembles down here too, albeit mainly in FI!

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=219&ext=1&y=251&run=12&runpara=0 


St. Sampson

Guernsey

Maunder Minimum
28 December 2016 18:11:14

A very interesting set of ensemble data from the 12z GFS run. Unsurprisingly the op run doesn't really fit the pattern (although that doesn't of course mean it might not be correct)

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0

Interesting clustering later on.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Just had a look through the GFS 12z operational and thought much of a muchness with the HP cell in never quite the right place for us. So I hope the ensemble mean is more on the money.


New world order coming.
Rob K
28 December 2016 18:18:04
I think it might be time for an ensemble watch soon... plenty of -10s starting to appear. The milder bump around Jan 4-7 seems a little more pronounced now, as expected things are firming up, but mid-Jan is looking quite interesting now!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2016 18:21:18

Pretty good ensembles down here too, albeit mainly in FI!
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=219&ext=1&y=251&run=12&runpara=0

 

Yes they only get good about the 6th January but some get very very good indeed from there for London about 9 or 10 hit -10c and two even hit -15c.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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