Why? The QBO was about as westerly as it gets during Nov and Dec 2010 and it didn't seem to matter then!

The Op delivers virtually a week of ice days for London. I don't recall seeing anything that sustained for a long while.

Cold but not the sort of cold that will please many on here I'm afraid...

Fairly decent Karl I'd say

Even more so your lot won

And that is a great reminder to all that even if something is against us we can still get something wintry to the UK

LOL.  Maybe, but the snow probability line on the ensemble runs up to 30% on occasion and is >0 for all of week 2.

Yes, plenty of easterly options in FI, including this monster in Pert. 20!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-20-1-300.png?0

Generally, things have changed very little this morning save for the fact that the initial cold blast on New Years Day looks as though it will be a blink and you'll miss it event in the far south.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122900/gfs-1-114.png?0

Round 2 seems to keep things interesting for the eastern side of the U.K. before a half hearted attempt to set up that easterly.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122900/gfs-0-210.png?0
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122900/gfs-0-312.png?0

Judging by the ensembles there are a few runs that make a better fist of it! The Operational is certainly one of the milder runs initially but then nestles back below the mean as we enter FI.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=313&ext=1&y=127&run=0&runpara=0

Great model watching again this morning but all rather FI IMBY. Best just sit back and enjoy the ride!

My view this morning on the GEFS is that FI sets in as early as t72 as there is considerable scatter in the ensembles early on, much more so than normally.

Having said that, the cold snap around 2 Jan is still on course, but its snow delivery potential is muted as other have attested to.

Beyond that, the GEFS now suggest a second cold snap peaking around 7-8 January (five days after the first) from a similar scenario, so expect it to be a fairly  dry , though it must be said there is the potential for the second bite at the cherry to deliver a bit more longevity than the first, possibly extending into a drier,colder spell, with a mid-lat high and possibly a glancing blow of cold for the SE.  But more runs are needed and we need to get much closer to the time before making any firm predictions.

Beyond that, well, well in Fantasy Island people will see what they want to see, barely 3 runs deliver a true easterly, so I am exercising caution.

WI

A shame its ECM 240 hours (again) but for me this chart is awesome and would no doubt go on to a notable easterly.

PV over Baffin.

Energy spilling SE'wards in the western Atlantic

Huge Mid Atlantic ridge with a good dose of warm air advection 

A huge arctic high extension appearing

Pressure dropping away over Italy.

Surely our time will come....surely ?

A decent chart there Steve, well in FI.  Just keep and eye out on whether the second northerly plunge is accompanied by a falling of pressure over the western Med and Iberia.  Unless the pressure falls there (which is a tough call)  I cannot see any easterly of note. More runs and a dose of caution needed?

Some eye candy in FI whilst the usual downgrades apply nearer the time.

All very typical.

I guess you are half right. Interesting FI yes, but downgrades nearer the time?

There have only been very small changes in the output for the start of the new year, and beyond that the details are changing as you would expect.  

Two northerlies in some form of anticyclonic sandwich has been the trend for days now. That trend continues.

I'd say we're really close syponotically speaking but as always it's over a week down the line and subject to vanish on the next run.

Can't see that downgrade yet...

Martin

Some very interesting longer term clusters from the 00Z EC ENS this morning, Scandy highs, to Greenland blocks and poss E'ly flow.

Might please a few

Looking at GEFS ENS there are already signs of ENS shifting towards ds lees cold.At 360h around a third are cold Scandi nor gGreenalnd HP,a third are back to westerly flows and a  third variable location HP

Of  course there is still hope of .something coming offbut I would be happier whwn an dif the METO monthly  if the extended METO stars to mention snow.

Indeed, Marcus. It just goes to show that whether or not we get a decent wintry spell during any given winter in this country is not dependant on one factor in isolation.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.gif 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn782.gif 

Certainly pleases me.Presume this is the Op run?Snow also shows up on some of the GEFS eg pert 19.

Much depends on whether  the small LP shown on som perts develops.The snow you are showing  is  essentially  back end of front activity?