Interesting 12z ens

The Op manages to be largely warmest throughout (850s) and an outlier for pressure later on too (one of the highest) and to complete the set warmest T2M temps later on.

There's some notable cold clustering in the last third or so of the run with a number of members giving ice days

Deep FI and all that but encouraging none the less. One thing is sure it's not a warm and zonal run and there's clearly good potential for further cold weather later on, after the upcoming cold snap subsides.

The ensembles represent an upgrade. Although the OP isnt anything special a fair few members develop serious heights over Greenland. The control in particular is cold.

Best of the lot though is P4 which is an absolute stunner. A massive Greenland high leaves an unstable air mass over the UK and at one point we get -15C uppers over the UK. January 1881 esque

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP04EU12_300_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP04EU12_300_2.png

 We can dream...lol

The number of cold runs is increasing however, lets hope the ECM provides a christmas cracker!

yes a good upgrade this evening. Some wonderful charts that would deliver just about everywhere. Trying to pin point where the operational gfs moves away from the pack. ECM looking consistent again.

martin

I've seen worse charts than this in my time:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

The Ens for Liverpool suggests a decent chance of back-edge snow IMBY during the first cold pulse as we go into 2nd Jan. 13 members in the 'snow row' isn't to be sniffed at!

Mild outlier

Looks alright I guess!

ECM12z is a bonechiller tonight. We now have the BEST chance of a genuine nationwide cold spell since 2012/13.

Yes truly stunning end to the ecm. Great output tonite but it's a waiting game for the mega charts .

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Now even I'm getting more interested. This chart is much more what I've been looking for even better as it comes from my preferred model. Note the undercut out of the states can only go under the High because of its blocking attributes further North than recently. Further out charts would probably show a Southerly positioned Jet flow across the Atlantic towards Iberia which could feed a battleground scenario from the SW longer term. A long way out but this chart offers a real chance of a substantial cold outbreak from that setup. Let's hope the ensembles later show a shift towards a similar evolution and this better orientation and position of the High pressure is maintained over up and coming runs.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Stunning ECM 240 hours. 

We would all be very rich if we had a pound for every time its been said this year.

Not one for 'pattern matching' but the ECM chart at 144 reminded me a little of that which occurred just the before the 'big one' back in Dec '10.

2010

Tonight's ECM at 144hrs:

Of course, on a synoptic scale, many differences to be had, but on a sub-synoptic scale, maybe not so many.

A good positive, but rightly cautious, comment.

GFS ENS takes a dodgy rise after this fairly-nailed-on dip in 850 temps; hence caution is preferable.

The other feature to note is that the WAA is flowing north, i.e. it's not toppling under pressure from the jet, which looks to be split with what appears to be more energy in the southern arm.

It's a variation on the recent theme; as SC says, we need to see where this evolution sits in the ensemble suite.

Those two charts don't look at all dissimilar, do they!

Post of the day. 👍

Well said SC.

Interesting output though we need to see where this fits in the ensembles- perhaps time for an ensemble watch ? 😀

GavsWeatherVids ‏@GavinPartridge 3m3 minutes ago

Have updated the Blog - We're looking at the latest UKMO Contingency Planners Guidance covering January-March 2017 http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html 

TBH after reading the latest UKMO Contingency Planners Guidance I got this horrible feeling and that the uncertainty of this cold spell is going to go TITS UP..........

the latest BBC weather only just said turning chillier and more settled as we head into the new year...................

part of a matt hugo tweet........... from what I've seen last month wQBO set to dominate throughout until late winter  [ no idea what he means, but don't sound good to me,