Way too early to be worrying about whether you have gone too high or low. What we can say is the first part of November is going to be in the very cold category.
My current estimates suggest a CET of just 5.38C by the 8th. This would be the coldest first 8 days of November since 1988 and the 11th coldest first 8 days since 1900. The CET at that stage will be nearly 3.5C below the 1981-2010 mean so very significant indeed.
After that the models want to warm things up significantly but I take that with a large pinch of salt. Yes things will probably get less cold but the ENS are all over the place at the moment so the warm up to the high 6's by mid month shown in the charts below is by no means a likelihood at this stage. Even if it does get that high we will still have nearly half the month to go and temperatures generally drop off a lot during November. Some forecasts are suggesting things could get quite cold again towards the end of the month but that is speculation at this point.
So at this stage I am quite happy with my prediction of 6.2C. I was very tempted to go much lower with something around 5.5C but I held off because the models were showing a much warmer period around mid month.