The Weather Outlook

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Global Warming
06 November 2016 09:37:35

Here is the list of predictions for November.

Twister
06 November 2016 09:49:35
Thanks GW - looks like 3 in 4 went for a below average November. Now it's 6 days in, but the models remain volatile and we're none the wiser what the CET outcome will be... who knows what the rest of this month has in store for our shores!
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL

Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)

Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39

Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)

"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

ARTzeman
06 November 2016 11:16:52

Thank you GW for the charts.. Just have to watch and wait.. Good to have the interest.. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
06 November 2016 11:20:57

Met Office Hadley           6.9c.          Anomaly         -1.0c.    Provisional to 5th.

Met Office                       6.10c.        Anomaly         -0.82c.

Netweather                     6.8c.          Anomaly         -0.11c.

 

Peasedown St John     7.0c.          Anomaly          -1.2c.    




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 November 2016 17:55:02

I'm thinking we're almost a week into November, it's already low and I'd expect it to get colder towards month end.  Maybe my guess wasn't so bad. Only maybe. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Whether Idle
06 November 2016 18:15:33

I think anyone in at least the top third of the CET table has a chance in this year's competition. 

The overall table is tighter than a free-climber's grip!


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gavin D
07 November 2016 11:02:42
6.5 to the 6th

1.4 below the 61 to 90 average

2.2 below the 81 to 10 average

ARTzeman
07 November 2016 13:00:45
Met office Hadley 6.5c. Anomaly -1.4c. Provisional to 6th.. Needs to rise a couple of degrees.....

Metcheck 5.89c. Anomaly -1.04c.

Netweather 6.37c. Anomaly -0.54c.

Peasedown St John 6.5c. Anomaly -1.7c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Saint Snow
07 November 2016 14:24:43

Here is the list of predictions for November.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

 

Oh gawd, I'm toward one of the ends again.

My punt in October knocked me out of any sort of contention; after this month I could be fighting a relegation battle!

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Hungry Tiger
07 November 2016 20:06:41

I've well and truly had it. But anyway - its all god fun and interesting. :-)

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
07 November 2016 22:14:59

Forget what I said yesterday!  My 6.8 guess is already higher than the actual CET and I don't think even mild week can help me. The month is likely to just get colder. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Jonesy
08 November 2016 11:31:29

Forget what I said yesterday!  My 6.8 guess is already higher than the actual CET and I don't think even mild week can help me. The month is likely to just get colder. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

With what we've had the last few years I'm not so sure Caz ...But like you I fear for my prediction already, however if it's cold and crisp I won't complain 

 

Once that Atlantic huffs and puffs by the weekend it might take a little longer to shift than expected, hopefully a very very very cold 1st December instead 


Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !

ARTzeman
08 November 2016 13:09:55

No update from Hadley yet.

Metcheck        5.47c.   Anomaly   -1.46c.

Netweather     6.17c.   Anomaly   -0.74c. 

 

Peasedown St John    6.1c. Anomaly  -2.2c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Rob K
08 November 2016 13:22:27
-6C at Pershore last night ought to knock it down a bit!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Essan
08 November 2016 14:14:47

 Oh gawd, I'm toward one of the ends again.

My punt in October knocked me out of any sort of contention; after this month I could be fighting a relegation battle!

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I rather suspect you'll be closer to the right end than the wrong this month


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

ARTzeman
09 November 2016 12:12:12

Met Office Hadley           5.9c.           Anomaly           -1.9c.     Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                        5.28c.          Anomaly            -1.64c.

Netweather                     5.78c.          Anomaly            -1.13c.

 

Peasedown St John     5.4c.         Anomaly                -2.3c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Saint Snow
09 November 2016 15:18:11

Met Office Hadley           5.9c.           Anomaly           -1.9c.     Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                        5.28c.          Anomaly            -1.64c.

Netweather                     5.78c.          Anomaly            -1.13c.

 

Peasedown St John     5.4c.         Anomaly                -2.3c.

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

 

 

Long may it remain so low!


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
09 November 2016 18:39:29

4.2C here so far (-2.2C)


ARTzeman
10 November 2016 12:49:05

Met Office Hadley             5.8c.              Anomaly         -2.0c.   Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                         5.30c.             Anomaly           -1.62c.

Netweather                      5.75c.             Anomaly           -1.16c.

 

Peasedown St John        6.1c             Anomaly            -2.1c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
11 November 2016 12:05:06

Met Office  Hadley           5.8c.          Anomaly         -1.9c.  Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                         5.28c.        Anomaly           -1.64c.

Netweather                      5.82c.        Anomaly           -1.09c.

 

Peasedown St John       6.6c.           Anomaly          -2.6c.     Compared to 2015..... 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
11 November 2016 22:27:53

It has been a very cold start to November indeed. The Hadley data does not do it justice. Up to today I estimate the CET currently stands at 5.02C which is way below the Hadley figure of 5.8C. Some very cold nights so far this month. My figure may be a little low but not by much.

The CET on the 8th of 0.9C is the 6th coldest for that date on record since 1772. As it happens the 8th often seems to be a cold day otherwise it this year would have been even higher up the list.

Based on the 5.02C figure the first 11 days of November have been the 5th coldest first 11 days of November since 1900 and the coldest since 1980.

Coldest first 11 days of Nov since 1900

1919 3.38C

1980 4.27C

1910 4.43C

1934 4.89C

2016 5.02C est

Temperatures return to average this weekend and then become very mild indeed for the first half of next week pushing the CET up by more than 1C. After that temperatures return close to average again. There is a possibility that temperatures could dip below average by quite a bit towards the end of the month.

Currently I estimate the CET will level off between 6.4C and 6.5C by the end of next week. 

So at the moment I would say anyone who has predicted around 6C or a little above is looking in good shape. I am still quite happy with my prediction of 6.2C.

ARTzeman
12 November 2016 12:52:09

Met Office Hadley            5.8c.         Anomaly          -1.9c.  Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                         5.42c.       Anomaly          -1.50c.

Netweather                      5.8c.         Anomaly          -1.11c.

 

Peasedown St John       6.5c.        Anomaly          -2.7c.      




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
13 November 2016 11:32:57

Met Office Hadley               5.9c.            Anomaly         -1.6c.    Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                            5.57c.          Anomaly         -1.35c.

Netweather                         6.04c.         Anomaly         -0.89c.

 

Peasedown St John        6.8c.            Anomaly            -2.4c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
13 November 2016 20:34:49

A quick heads up - I am going to run a winter CET competition this year. 

To keep it simple, if you wish to participate in the winter CET competition you can send me your predictions by PM at the same time as you send your December CET predictions.

I will open the December CET thread a few days before the end of November as usual. But predictions for December and the winter CET can be sent to me before then if you wish via PM.

ARTzeman
14 November 2016 12:19:09

Met Office Hadley            6.1c.        Anomaly      -1.3c.   Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                         5.79c.      Anomaly       -1.16c.

Netweather                      6.13c.      Anomaly       -0.7c.

 

Peasedown St John        6.9c.         Anomaly       -2.3c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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