Met Office Hadley          6.4c.         Anomaly         -1.0c.  Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                       6.30c.       Anomaly          -0.63c.

Netweather                    6.49c.       Anomaly          -0.42c.

Peasedown St John      7.2c.          Anomaly          -1.0c.   

Massive surge in the CET today and I now have it at 6C by my calculations.

However, after another warm day tomorrow it turns very cold again for a time before something closer to average beyond that. But I suspect there is a chance that we will ultimately see somewhat cooler conditions to end the month than the data currently suggests.

Notwithstanding the mild spell at the moment and the lack of any sustained cold later in the month currently showing up, I still estimate the CET will only be at 6.24C by the 29th. So my prediction of 6.2C is still looking fairly good at the moment. If anything I am now slightly concerned that I will end up too high.

Met Office Hadley             6.8c.              Anomaly         -0.5c.    Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                          6.54c.            Anomaly           -0.38c.

Netweather                       6.91c.            Anomaly            0.02c.

Peasedown St John         7.5c.             Anomaly           -1.7c.         

5.5C (-1C) to today here but on a downward trend again for a few days.

0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

1.0 below the 81 to 10 average

Met Office Hadley             7.1c.             Anomaly        -0.1c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                          6.61c.           Anomaly        -0.32c.

Netweather                       7.11c.           Anomaly         0.22c.

Peasedown St John         7.7c.        Anomaly           -0.5c.          

If it did finish at 6.2c, according to my back-of-a-fag-packet scribblings, there wouldn't be too much change at the very top. Twister & The Professional would climb in the top 10, with Gusty dropping out.

You'd continue your renaissance to be sat in 11th

Further down the list, the big fallers would be John S2, Wallaw & Bertwhistle, whilst the main upwardly mobiles would be me, Tractor Boy, Snow Hoper, SS Magnet & Cowman.

I think unless we start to get 2010'esque charts showing across the board by late Nov, December's going to be a tricky month to forecast, and could see some big error margins.

Could work out as average for December if temperature is up and down.....

Well, yes - or it could be cold throughout and an average punt would be 2c or 3c out. Or it could be a cold start, leading some to plump for a low CET, only for it to turn mild from mid-month. Or even, the NWP veers away from cold output as Nov comes to a close, people go milder with their forecasts, only for output to flip back to cold output early in December.

Yes, not far off the old November average now, and pushing over 7c.  This may be the highpoint.  Where will it settle though???

Somewhere close to 6.8c or 6.9c I would have thought after a dip back to 6.5c for a time this week. 

It all depends where the high pressure cell sits. Cold nights will ensue in the CET area if the sits further south. Nights will be considerably milder should it sit further north with a moderate easterly breeze blowing throughout.

Met Office Hadley               7.1c.            Anomaly          -0.1c.Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                            6.51c.          Anomaly          -0.41c.

Netweather                         7.12c.          Anomaly           0.41c.

Peasedown St  John           7.7c.              Anomaly           -0.5c.    

Met Office Hadley              6.9c.            Anomaly         -0.2c.    Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                           6.34c.          Anomaly           -0.58c.

Netweather                        6.97c.          Anomaly            0.08c.

Peasedown St John         7.5c.          Anomaly          -0.7c.  

My CET calculations are currently around 0.75C lower than the Hadley figures. So expect a very large downward adjustment this month. May not be quite as much as my figures suggest but it should be a sizeable adjustment.

Despite the output currently suggesting the final week of the month will be slightly above average (I am not sure that will verify) I still calculate the CET will finish only just above 6C at 6.16C.

Its turning out to be quite a chilly month - that's for sure.

Met Office Hadley             6.8c.         Anomaly          -0.3c.  Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                          6.25c.       Anomaly          -0.68c.

Netweather                       6.82c.       Anomaly          -0.09c.

Peasedown St John       7.3c.        Anomaly           -0.9c.              

Met Office Hadley           6.6c,            Anomaly         -0.3c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                        6.16c.          Anomaly         -0.76c.

Netweather                     6.77c.          Anomaly         -0.14c.

Peasedown St John      7.2c.         Anomaly           -1.0c.     

Met Office Hadley          6.5c.          Anomaly       -0.4c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                       6.23c.        Anomaly       -0.70c.

Netweather                    6.8c.          Anomaly       -0.11c.

Peasedown St John     7.1c.     Anomaly   -1.1c.      

I did think the provisional CET seemed a bit high given that I have a local mean of 6.4*C up to 21st (rising to 6.5*C today).

The predicted temperatures have adjusted downward by a few degrees for a number of the overnights in the period Wed-Sun. Then we have a notably colder outcome for Tue-Wed in prospect than was looking to be the case, thanks to a continental cold feed.

I've not had time to try and estimate for the CET itself, but for my local mean it looks like it will drop around 0.4*C based on the latest GFS run. 

A provisional CET of around 6.1*C looks achievable, with the final value in the high-5s. I could live with that 

Met Office Hadley      6.5c.     Anomaly       -0.4c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                    6.22c.   Anomaly       -0.70c.

Netweather                 6.82c.   Anomaly       -0.09c.

Peasedown St John   7.1c.     Anomaly     -1.1c.

Met Office Hadley     6.5c.    Anomaly    -0.3c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                  6.27c.  Anomaly     -0.65c.

Netweather               6.84c.  Anomaly     -0.07c.

Peasedown St John   7.1c.    Anomaly   -1.1c.          

Going to be interesting to see whether the CET flat-lines at 6.5 for a few more days before taking a slight tumble at the end. Could end up between 6.1 and 6.4 I reckon.

Met Office Hadley         6.5c.    Anomaly   -0.3c.  Provisional to 24th

Metcheck                      6.25c.   Anomaly   -0.67c.

Netweather                   6.86c.   Anomaly   -0.05c.

Peasedown St John      7.1c.     Anomaly   -1.1c. 

Probably a 5.8c to 6.0c finish now. Anticyclonic conditions will bring sub zero night time temperatures and a resultant fall in CET.

With 6.9c I have blown myself out of contention. 

I reckon it will end up around 6.25, so you and many others are still in contention, especially as December is going to be hard to predict with much confidence.