Ian F latest musings are still showing a blocked pattern until the middle of next month and with a limp wristed start regarding the PV setting up shop over Greenland, then even an attempted move to a more westerly phase in the weather may not last all that long just as long as we still see HLB in a favourable place continuing.

It is a certainty that the current propensity for northern blocking has an end, and that at some point the Atlantic will power up and the default pressure pattern will re-assert itself, with the associated switch to a westerly type with copious rainfall on our western up-slopes, cloudy nights and temperatures on the mild side.

The only question is - when will that switch occur?

I think we could see a continuation of a blocked weather pattern in November, though how much cloud covers us at night, how much cold or mild air gets advected over us due to the positioning of the blocking highs, is unknowable and means we all have to wait and see how things develop.  My current thinking is that The Atlantic will power up as we enter meteorological winter, and I will be issuing a LRF around December 1st, as I reserve the right to make a final prediction having seen what November, and the upstream signals, have to offer at that crucial time.

IMBY, there has been now laying snow since April 2013, and almost not a flake since then, making the current run of snowless years a stark and unpleasant reminder of the warming of our winter climate, whatever you believe the cause to be.

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It is a certainty that the current propensity for northern blocking has an end, and that at some point the Atlantic will power up and the default pressure pattern will re-assert itself, with the associated switch to a westerly type with copious rainfall on our western up-slopes, cloudy nights and temperatures on the mild side.

The only question is - when will that switch occur?

I think we could see a continuation of a blocked weather pattern in November, though how much cloud covers us at night, how much cold or mild air gets advected over us due to the positioning of the blocking highs, is unknowable and means we all have to wait and see how things develop.  My current thinking is that The Atlantic will power up as we enter meteorological winter, and I will be issuing a LRF around December 1st, as I reserve the right to make a final prediction having seen what November, and the upstream signals, have to offer at that crucial time.

IMBY, there has been now laying snow since April 2013, and almost not a flake since then, making the current run of snowless years a stark and unpleasant reminder of the warming of our winter climate, whatever you believe the cause to be.

Think yourself lucky, if we're using the definition of lying snow for say 24 hrs then December 2010 was the last time that happened around these parts. 😕

Think yourself lucky, if we're using the definition of lying snow for say 24 hrs then December 2010 was the last time that happened around these parts. 😕

OMG.  That is appalling!  You are overdue a good dumping.  Fingers crossed that this year will deliver.  It only takes one good synoptic set up, even in a winter of dross.  Not much to ask, is it?

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We are certainly overdue a proper dumping of snow. Using the 24hr covering of snow I believe the last time here was in March 2013 which is quite frankly ridiculous.

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Latest snow cover chart makes for interesting reading. Significant advance of snow cover since last week.

Of most note is the fact there is now significant snow cover in Scandinavia which may be more impactful for what happens over our part of the world this winter rather than what is going on in Siberia.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif

Current forecast is for the snow cover to expand significantly again this week with the snow reaching the European border by Friday:

Today 00

Friday 144

This is despite temperatures not being especially cold in the next week. The GFS is indicating the first week of November could be very cold in Scandinavia and Russia with mean temperatures of <0C right up to the European border. That could increase snow coverage even more.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

So something to keep an eye on. Only one factor of many to take into account of course.

It will be the centennial of the winter 1916-17 this winter. Winter 1916-17 was the first severe winter of the 20th century. It was an extended winter lasting well into April.

Pressure anomalies for that winter 

Sunderland

Days with falling and lying snow

December

5 days falling

13 days lying

January

19 days falling

22 days lying

February

4 days falling

17 days lying

March

9 days falling

14 days lying

April

12 days falling

11 days lying

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Latest snow cover chart makes for interesting reading. Significant advance of snow cover since last week.

Of most note is the fact there is now significant snow cover in Scandinavia which may be more impactful for what happens over our part of the world this winter rather than what is going on in Siberia.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif

So something to keep an eye on. Only one factor of many to take into account of course.

IMO you're right to say that it's only one factor to take into account; as far as I recall Scandinavia has not been starved of pretty decent winter conditions during the last 3-4 years, whereas most of the UK has. Whether being earlier will have any significant impact on our forthcoming winter is very much open to opinion. 

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The lack of snow at sea level in Svalbard is now beyond exceptional.

In recent years there has usually been snow cover from mid-September.

http://longyearbyen.kystnor.no/ 

As to what impact this has on our winter, I really don't know.

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The lack of snow at sea level in Svalbard is now beyond exceptional.

In recent years there has usually been snow cover from mid-September.

http://longyearbyen.kystnor.no/

As to what impact this has on our winter, I really don't know.

Let's not forget that by this time, most if not all of Svalbard, is now experiencing the polar night. The Arctic really is exceptionally warm at the moment.

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The situation in the Barents/Kara seas and hence around Svalbard is of great interest to meteorologists and climatologists alike with respect to the coming winter.

With such extreme anomalous warmth up there, and a lack of strong ENSO forcing to interfere with or override the response, this should be a good test as to how well the feedback mechanisms are able to produce results.

The past week has seen my excitement level just start to pick itself up off the floor after a very benign Sep-Oct (not that it's been without interest in statistical terms - I certainly enjoyed the warmth in Sep).

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OMG.  That is appalling!  You are overdue a good dumping.  Fingers crossed that this year will deliver.  It only takes one good synoptic set up, even in a winter of dross.  Not much to ask, is it?

We're all due a good dumping of the white stuff and hopefully this winter will produce the goods for all us long suffering coldies. ❄️❄️❄️❄️

IMO you're right to say that it's only one factor to take into account; as far as I recall Scandinavia has not been starved of pretty decent winter conditions during the last 3-4 years, whereas most of the UK has. Whether being earlier will have any significant impact on our forthcoming winter is very much open to opinion. 

Tis but one tiny factor to take into consideration, the big pool of water on our doorstep is where winter is won or lost IMO.

I think the snowfall around 22 March 2013 in NW England has been forgotten in the earlier post

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Let's not forget that by this time, most if not all of Svalbard, is now experiencing the polar night. The Arctic really is exceptionally warm at the moment.

 

Yes very warm but I don't it is quite polar night for much of Svalbard for a few days yet. Perhaps northernmost parts? In a few days I think it will be in all parts.

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I think the snowfall around 22 March 2013 in NW England has been forgotten in the earlier post

Not in mine, that brought a few flurries here.

It will be the centennial of the winter 1916-17 this winter. Winter 1916-17 was the first severe winter of the 20th century. It was an extended winter lasting well into April.

Pressure anomalies for that winter 

Sunderland

Days with falling and lying snow

December

5 days falling

13 days lying

January

19 days falling

22 days lying

February

4 days falling

17 days lying

March

9 days falling

14 days lying

April

12 days falling

11 days lying

Interesting that 1916-17 seems to have been a sever winter, as the previous winter produced an exceptionally mild January, the mildest January on record if I'm not mistaken.

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Interesting that 1916-17 seems to have been a sever winter, as the previous winter produced an exceptionally mild January, the mildest January on record if I'm not mistaken.

December 1916 looks to have been a month with some very strong wave activity in the stratosphere. A canadian warming or full blown SSW - reanalysis cannot tell.

10mb reanalysis December 1916.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.20thc.day.v2.pl

 

 

Not in mine, that brought a few flurries here.

After getting decent falls in the January, a smattering in Feb and one decent fall earlier in the March, that one in late March was the only one we missed out on - well we got a covering of about an inch but only on the grass and car rooftop. Didn't even stick on the road, a poor effort really. While it seemed places that hardly get any snow got pasted, looking at pictures from west Cumbria where even lorries got buried.

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Winter 1916-17 brought some really severe weather to Ireland with numerous blizzards, with notable events occurring in January and April (oddly) the latter bringing up to a metre of snow over a large parts of the west of the country, and is considered to be the most severe snow event of the 20th century here.

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