Apologies I am late and out of time again this month. Brief summary below. Please go ahead and post your CET predictions for October. Entries will remain open with no penalties until 23:59 on Sunday.
Historic summary for October
1971-2000 10.4C
1981-2010 10.7C
1996-2015 11.2C
All three of the last Octobers have been fairly warm. 11.0C last year (so only a little above average) but 12.5C in both 2014 and 2013. 2012 was cold at 9.7C.
Latest model output
850 temperatures looking fairly average overall for the first half of the month. A cool start then turning a bit warmer and then cooler again.
My CET estimate for the first 13 days of the month suggests a CET of just under 12C by the 13th which is bang in line with the 1981-2010 mean. My gut feeling based on the latest BBC forecasts is that if anything the actual temperatures will probably end up being a little warmer than this.
Met Office contingency planners overview
Strong suggestion of above average temperatures with a westerly Atlantic dominated month.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/p/Forecast-temp-OND-v1.pdf
Edited by moderator
17 November 2016 10:55:09
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