It's off one of the NOAA servers but was tweeted to me last winter and I don't have a link. Good points you raise and which I don't have answers to. Nonetheless, it backs up the theory that winter patterns have changed in recent decades. 

Indeed a very telling chart which demonstrates a deepening of low pressure over Iceland and  a rise over the Azores and thereforea strengthening circulation and more positive NAO.

In term of the NAO it is worth noting that the NAO time series  DJF 1826-2015 has roughly twice as many NAO +winters as NAO - ones,so the conditions for cold winters is not a 50.50 event- but 32:68 as we know to our cost!

Within the 1826-2015 series there are wide variations over different time periods.For the period 1950-2015 the NAO  - % is 42%>however this figure is skewed by the 1960's and 70,s where 11 out of 17  64% of winters were NAO -

The period 1870-1935 however had only 22% NAO - winters.

the 1950-2015 reanalysis shows a strengthening  circulation there is a current hypothesis  suggesting the jet is moving further south- would that lead to an even stronger zonal flow?

However 2000-2015 is almost the inverse....

Have you got a link to the NCEP server where that chart can be viewed or generated?

 2000-2015 is a short period and is probably  skewed by the  2009/10 winter which had a DJF NAO of -3.12

There were a number of -NAO summers in that period as well. Summers 2007-2012 were all -NAOs. NOAA have both last summer and this summer as -NAO

Hi Brian

Ive done the image -
Cant upload it though from iphone -unsure on here though

i personally although 2009 does skew it

It's amazing how negative fans of cold weather are these days considering we had the best winter in a couple of generations just six years ago. But people on TWO were still moaning even then.

Yes that's what I mean. In any given year the chances are slightly lower than they were. 

Some early thoughts from me regarding the coming Winter then.   

I wanted to see if there's a variation in October synoptic anomalies depending on whether the following Winter was mild or cold, but only during a similar stage in the solar cycle to this year.  So I established 5 Octobers that preceded Mild Winters, these are 2004, 1994, 1973, 1974 and 2006.   

And the 5 Octobers that preceded cold Winters are 2005, 1995, 1984, 1962 and 1963.   Remember all these 10 years were at a similar stage in the solar cycle to 2016.

Running a composite for each set of years gives a striking result.  The cold Winter block was preceded by Octobers that had a Low Pressure anomaly near Iceland, and High Pressure anomaly over mainland Europe, with generally milder and drier conditions for the UK.

But looking at the mild Winter block, the anomalies are completely reversed, with instead a High Pressure block to the N and NW of the UK, with Low Pressure anomalies dominating Europe, resulting in a wet October for the UK.

Interesting also, that in the cold Winter block, only one year had an El Nino ongoing, with 2 La Nina and 2 ENSO Neutral conditions.  Whereas the mild Winter block had 3 El Nino years, 2 La Nina, and 0 ENSO Neutral years.   I didn't see any effect from the QBO signal, so for me the QBO figure in October is a very poor predictor of the following Winter.

So, if you're looking for a cold Winter this time around, we need to see a decent amount of High Pressure to the S and SE of the UK, and with Low Pressure mainly staying to the W or NW of us.

This is exactly what we have been seeing and will be experiencing more of from the middle of this week - LP to the W or NW and HP to the SE.

For me the worry is the persistently warm SSTs in the gulf of Alaska.

Fergieweather (Ian) has posted on the other side quite an enlightening post as to where the thoughts of the Metoffice pros are at this point in time. Suggests there are tentative signs of an easterly sourced outbreak as early as November with some current convergence of seasonal modelling on a much different (blocked) winter to last year.

Have you a link for his thoughts?

The last few winters have been so awful down here (in terms of cold), anything is going to be an improvement.

It's in their ENSO thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/79367-enso-discussion/?page=31#comment-3452070

Just to clarify, he is talking about an easterly phase of the QBO (specifically 10hPa level) rather than easterly winds driving our weather.

Yep gathered that's what he meant after a re-read, perhaps I should have made it a bit clearer :)

Still, I'm encouraged nonetheless. 

My gut feeling is that we are in a run of mild/very mild winters,similar to the 1990`s early 2000`s and other than fleeting short lived outbreaks of cold the next several years will be highly zonal and would not be surprised to see winter 2016/17 similar to 2013/14 and any chance of cold will be during February/March.

Just gut feeling based on the very warm temperatures in the northern hemisphere at the moment,there is no signs of much of cool down,which by now we usually have started to see.

The winter will be what it will be and am sure there will be some suprises as there usually is in the uk.

My instinct tells me something different. I think we are in for the coldest and driest winter for six or seven years.

There will be surprises for many this winter, definitely not a wet and mild winter like last year.

The starting parameters are looking more promising this year but I'm very cautious. Persistence shouldn't be overlooked and this year 8 out of 9 months so far have been warmer than average. Recent winters have also trended milder after the colder cluster circa 2009/10. At this stage I'd say we're starting from a position of having to roll a double 6 twice rather than three times.