So here we are again -a couple of months or so away from the start of winter.

I should make it  clear that I don't believe we can predict winters in any detail.The best we can hope for is a forecast of whether the temperature is going to be overall above or below average.

Last winter many of us got it right with above average.However it was  a somewhat rare scenario with one of the strongest El Nino's and a strong positive QBO both indicators of warmer than average winter.

This year there is no  one extreme indicator.In summary ENSO is forecast to be neutral,THE QBO is currently positive,MAY SST's did not display a tripole pattern so no cold indication from that.Sunspot numbers are in decline but are unlikely to be afacor until around the solar minimum.

On the basis of the above I would go for another milder than average winter.

Some more detail on the indicators.

1.ENSO

The latest NOAA discussion goes for neutral NAO condition s for next winter.This is change from the weak La Nina being forecast in the august discussion.

Neutral ENSO conditions have occurred 20 times in the 65 years.The winters in this grouping have a 60:40 split in favour of NAO + winters.However for those wanting a cold straw to clutch on the set includes the cold wintes of 62/63,78/79,81/82,85/86,90/91,96/97 and 08/09.

2.QBO

Currently the QBO is positive around +10 and look likely to remain positive over the winter.This suggests a strengthening of the westerly circulation and a milder than average winter.

3.SST's

As mentioned above May SST's did not display tripole pattern.The cold mid Atlantic patch is now declining with warmer Atlantic temperatures and warm sea south of Greenland.How this feeds into winter type I don,t know!

4.Sunspot numbers.

The trend is downward  although there is a fair bit of jumping around in the last 3 momths being 20.9,32.5 ,and most recently 50.7.Solar minimum is in 2020 and its  around this time that a colder influence is likely.

So be interested to have your initial thoughts on winter 16/17.

BINGO !!!!! a thread ive been waiting for, well from what ive been reading hot summers are followed by mild winters and poss average winters but can not rule out a cold one, due to the EL NINO - EL NINA summer has turned out better than expected here in ESSEX infact its been a brilliant summer, so im expecting winter to show its cards and full  potential just like summer has, we shall see

I'm intrigued to see how the various 'indicators' are interpreted by our members in terms of this coming winter.

It'd be nice to see an increase in forum participation, too. I remember the halcyon days in the mid-00's, when, if there was a hint of a cold spell approaching, there'd be a veritable army of contributors commenting on every new 6-hour portion of a GFS roll-out, us all hitting F5 repeatedly to try to see the next step of the run before anyone else.

Well, around these parts, it won't take much for it to be a very much colder and snowier winter than last year, that's for sure   

Prospects this winter should be better than last winter. Solar activity is very low and ENSO looks broadly neutral.

Fingers crossed!

Plus we are having an Indian summer - anecdotally, I think that can presage a proper winter. One reason for the Indian summer is the prevalence of blocking in our region, after all.

But the blocking's not in the most advantageous location in this case!

A contrast to the northern blocking we've seen earlier in the summer (where, on a few occasions, it was a case of 'if only it was January!')

I'd love a repeat of either the 2009/'10 or 2010/11 winters

I am not so sure about that - current fax chart shows a decent Scandi HP and LP over Biscay - I am sure that would set a few pulses racing in January:

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa_ukmo_analysis/PPVA89.gif?31415

Solar  thanks -with a currentl evel of 10 +when is the switch to easterly QBO likely to take place?

It's just a forecast but probably better than most and the one thing you can be sure of is that it can't be worse than last year!

I am hopeful of a colder, drier winter something like 2008/09.

Andy

Without having seen a proper snowfall, let alone laying snow since April 2013 IMBY, the prospects locally here in the far south east are that things can only get better.

I've already commented on the similarities between this year and 1953, and on the basis that late autumn/early winter of that year was a write-off, I'm expecting that to continue:

It was actually even milder than last year as there was at least a brief northerly with snow on 21st/22nd November last year which brought November's mean down a bit. The big difference is that they had something memorable the year before, as referenced in the article above, but nowadays it's just the same year-in-year out

Whether mild or cold, I hope this winter will be an active one for a change.

They are a bit unsure of what it is doing at the moment.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/quasibiennialoscillation

Yes this current QBO + cycle is rather peculiar with a peak of 13.38  in October  2015 and another peak of 10.07 in August.The April 2016 value was 0.64 and normally there would be a switch to negative.I can  find no other QBO + cycle that has such a pronounced double peak.Be fascinating to see how the September QBO works out

Thanks Roger, an interesting read.

Think its very hard to predict what will happen at this stage, and I don't believe in pattern matching October or any other month with the winter. However I would predict a generally mild winter,  simply as it is the overwhelming trend over the last 20 years (solar minimums aside).   But there will always be opportunities for snowfalls even in a mild winter , and places just have to have a little luck. 

In a perfect world, we would have a very warm September and October , then a spell of frosty weather in November before a cold winter.  I am in favour of warm SST's to promote instability and showers.

During the last 30 years or so there has IMO been a correlation between late season warmth / anticyclonic conditions and milder winters. Therefore, what we're seeing this September is more likely to favour a mild winter, but it is a subjective view and I know exceptions will always be found.

Assuming the potential correlation is connected to the increased incidence of a repeating pattern, I think it the sort of winter to follow would depend on the synoptics that brought the late season warmth / anticyclonic conditions.

If it were caused by extensive AH ridging and/or blocking to the south, then a repeating pattern of this through winter would obviously lead to milder weather. On the other hand, if the blocking was located more to the east or northeast (especially if accompanied by more general HLB), then similar synoptics would increase the likelihood of colder winter weather.

Global long-range model probability maps have been issued: - Looks normal/average to me for the UK - in terms of temperatures (Dec/Jan/Feb).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Tallyho your link not working hope this one does.Pressure is as temperature close to normal

However sometimes the split into two categories is useful.close to average is still the result for temp.pressure and precipitaion.

The only real anomaly that shows up  is a band of lower than average SST's to the NW and N of the uk.No idea whar such a pattern would deliver!

Anyway, if correct it would not be the raging zonality of the last few winters.

At this stage in the game the MetO and ECM updates are OK if it's a cooler, drier winter you are looking for.

Andy

This is not an Indian Summer.  This is(was!) "high summer". Indian Summer refers to unseasonal heat mostly in October and November.  See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15127159

here is the key paragraph from P Eden: The latest edition of the Meteorological Glossary defines it thus: "A warm, calm spell of weather occurring in autumn, especially in October and November." So, it is most commonly used in those two months, but the idea of such a spell starting in late-September is not necessarily precluded.

WI

This is the most telling reanalysis chart I have seen: