First poll of 2011:

YouGov/News International

Con 40% Lab 42% Lib-Dem 8% Lab Lead 2%

First poll of 2011:

YouGov/News International

Con 40% Lab 42% Lib-Dem 8% Lab Lead 2%

 It would seem the Lib-Dem share of the vote is close to stabilising.

First poll of 2011:

YouGov/News International

Con 40% Lab 42% Lib-Dem 8% Lab Lead 2%

 It would seem the Lib-Dem share of the vote is close to stabilising.

You tend to find that with temperatures as you venture out into deep space too.

First poll of 2011:

YouGov/News International

Con 40% Lab 42% Lib-Dem 8% Lab Lead 2%

 It would seem the Lib-Dem share of the vote is close to stabilising.

I suppose its a bit like when the temp in the UK gets down to -20c and just will not drop any further. It reaches a point where it can't go any lower.

Just think how well Labour would be doing if they actually had a leader....

Just think how well Labour would be doing if they actually had a leader....

I told you so.  Labour have a proven winner (and all-round nasty guy which is a good quality in a politician) who'd be capable of taking on DC. He's called Lord Mandelson. The problem Labour now have again (Blair stopped this temporarily it would seem) is they are more interested in pontificating among themselves than grabbing power. The natural order in British politics looks like being resumed in the next few years, with the Tories looking like the more potent political force.

Lib-Dems drop to a new low

YouGov/Inews International

Con 39% Lab 43% Lib-Dem 7% Lab Lead 4%

Lib-Dems drop to a new low

YouGov/Inews International

Con 39% Lab 43% Lib-Dem 7% Lab Lead 4%

Bizarre editorial in the Times yesterday urging voters in Oldham to vote Lib Dem in the by-election, for no other reason than to give Clegg a reward for destroying his own party by joining the coalition!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/byelection/8248138/Blow-for-Nick-Clegg-as-Labour-heads-for-by-election-victory-in-Oldham.html

According to Lord Ashcroft's polling company, Labour are heading for a win in the Oldham by election.

Interesting that most voters also support the spending cuts (or rather see them as necessary). This is a problem long term for Labour as at the moment they seem to have lost the argument over the deficit. We've had this debate many times I know, yes Labour ran a structural deficit to fund public services, but were unlucky with the global financial crash. They would have got away with it otherwise. It does seem odd that most people are willing to lie back and accept tax rises, rail fare rises, job losses and service cuts at the same time as accepting the need for massive bank bailouts in Ireland and massive spending on an unwinnable war in Afghanistan 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/byelection/8248138/Blow-for-Nick-Clegg-as-Labour-heads-for-by-election-victory-in-Oldham.html

According to Lord Ashcroft's polling company, Labour are heading for a win in the Oldham by election.

Interesting that most voters also support the spending cuts (or rather see them as necessary). This is a problem long term for Labour as at the moment they seem to have lost the argument over the deficit. We've had this debate many times I know, yes Labour ran a structural deficit to fund public services, but were unlucky with the global financial crash. They would have got away with it otherwise. It does seem odd that most people are willing to lie back and accept tax rises, rail fare rises, job losses and service cuts at the same time as accepting the need for massive bank bailouts in Ireland and massive spending on an unwinnable war in Afghanistan 

An odd by-election for sure. With so many variables swirling around it I'm not sure quite how we'll see anything but spin. Obviously, in normal circumstances, the opposition should do well in a by, but here the locals have seen the demise of the odious incumbent and the impact of Chaytor's conviction (in near-by Bury North) can't be good for the Labour campaign.

Add into the mix the poorly disguised by-electoral pact from the Torylition partners and their p1ss poor performance thus far, and the voters must be seriously wondering which way to turn. If I lived there I'd certainly be looking for the NOTA box if I bothered to get to the polling station at all. I suppose all the media attention and 'high-profile' visits will hold up the turnout figures, but they really don't deserve to be high.

Beast I know you're a Labour man and all that, but surely you can see that the long term problem for Labour is greater than just finding a way to convince the punters that it was the banksters. ATM I see no sign at all that Lab under Miliband is going to be anything other than another manifestation of a right of centre, corporatist, neo-liberal apologists that NL were. The party has lost its soul, its meaning and its very reason for existence. I sincerely hope that Cashcroft's polling is correct and the tragic Torylition suffer their first electoral humbling, but until and unless Miliband can start to articulate some ideological alternative to this neo-thatcherism I, for one, don't believe things would be very different if he were PM. IMHO that's Labour's problem....I should want to vote for them

 ATM I see no sign at all that Lab under Miliband is going to be anything other than another manifestation of a right of centre, corporatist, neo-liberal apologists that NL were. The party has lost its soul, its meaning and its very reason for existence. I sincerely hope that Cashcroft's polling is correct and the tragic Torylition suffer their first electoral humbling, but until and unless Miliband can start to articulate some ideological alternative to this neo-thatcherism I, for one, don't believe things would be very different if he were PM. IMHO that's Labour's problem....I should want to vote for them

Yes, to some extent all the main parties are different shades of the same thing. I've become more of a pragmatist in older age and I believe that getting some progressive policies in place is better than nothing at all and being in permanent opposition, however noble and principled doesn't really help.

The whole premise of New Labour was to get into power under the current system which is stacked against left-wing parties. The consensus of rampant capitalism, consumerism and  pursuit of material wealth and property is something that is now so engrained in the psyche that I can't see how that will change. Perhaps if the banks had been allowed to collapse in 2008, there could have been a popular uprising against the system, but now people have slipped back into their "normal" comfort zones.

Just listened to Alan Johnson on the BBC World News talking out of his posterior:

On VAT he said "promises have been broken on VAT, both parties promised not to raise it". Fact - the Conservatives never pledged not to raise VAT and nor did Labour - Alastair Darling has said that VAT was going to increase to 20% if Labour won the election as well.

On fiscal retrenchment: "No other country is doing this." - just who is Alan Johnson trying to kid? What about Ireland, Greece, Spain, Germany to name just a few?

Nought out of ten for Alan Johnson on that outing - must do better!

 ATM I see no sign at all that Lab under Miliband is going to be anything other than another manifestation of a right of centre, corporatist, neo-liberal apologists that NL were. The party has lost its soul, its meaning and its very reason for existence. I sincerely hope that Cashcroft's polling is correct and the tragic Torylition suffer their first electoral humbling, but until and unless Miliband can start to articulate some ideological alternative to this neo-thatcherism I, for one, don't believe things would be very different if he were PM. IMHO that's Labour's problem....I should want to vote for them

Yes, to some extent all the main parties are different shades of the same thing. I've become more of a pragmatist in older age and I believe that getting some progressive policies in place is better than nothing at all and being in permanent opposition, however noble and principled doesn't really help.

The whole premise of New Labour was to get into power under the current system which is stacked against left-wing parties. The consensus of rampant capitalism, consumerism and  pursuit of material wealth and property is something that is now so engrained in the psyche that I can't see how that will change. Perhaps if the banks had been allowed to collapse in 2008, there could have been a popular uprising against the system, but now people have slipped back into their "normal" comfort zones.

Hmmm...but didn't Blair/Brown try that "one-nation toryism" and get kicked out? I really do think that Miliband's party need to start articulating some convincing alternatives that the electorate can hang onto. There is a rising sense of anger, betrayal, and injustice surrounding most of what the Torylition have wrought, and MiliLabour should be harnessing that to challenge the neo-liberal agenda. I hear little if anything that is convicing from this band of lightweights. 

As for your acceptance of what the masses want, I'm not convinced that all is lost to rampant consumerism. I think many (former) Labour supporters do still retain values that centre around social justice, reducing inequality and the power of solidarity and community. Interestingly this 1959 quote from Bevan has been doing the rounds on some lefty blogs:-

"I have enough faith in my fellow creatures in Great Britain to believe that when they have got over the delirium of the television, when they realize that their new homes that they have been put into are mortgaged to the hilt, when they realize that the moneylender has been elevated to the highest position in the land, when they realize that the refinements for which they should look are not there, that it is a vulgar society of which no decent person could be proud, when they realize all those things, when the years go by and they see the challenge of modern society not being met by the Tories who can consolidate their political powers only on the basis of national mediocrity, who are unable to exploit the resources of their scientists because they are prevented by the greed of their capitalism from doing so, when they realize that the flower of our youth goes abroad today because they are not being given opportunities of using their skill and their knowledge properly at home, when they realize that all the tides of history are flowing in our direction, that we are not beaten, that we represent the future: then, when we say it and mean it, then we shall lead our people to where they deserve to be led!"

Dated, yes...and possibly a little messianic for our post-modern tastes, but a politician prepared to articulate some home truths.

ComRes/Independent

Con 34% Lab 42% Lib-Dem 12% Lab Lead 8%

YouGov/News International

Con 40% Lab 43% Lib-Dem 8% Lab Lead 3%

ComRes/Independent

Con 34% Lab 42% Lib-Dem 12% Lab Lead 8%

YouGov/News International

Con 40% Lab 43% Lib-Dem 8% Lab Lead 3%

8%...hmmm.

UK Polling suspect something of a rogue poll there from ComRes, and you'd have to say that was favourite...especially with follow up responses like these:-

"In ComRes’s other questions – they found 58% disagreed with the statement that Britain was better off with a coalition government than a single party. 36% thought Ed Miliband was proving a good leader of the Labour party with 42% disagreeing (figures for Clegg were 37% thinking he was doing a good job, 52% disagree. Finally 36% thought that Labour would do a better job than the coalition on the economy, but 54% disagreed."

It can't be good news for Labour that their leader is polling worse than Clegg

As was, but now (because of their undermining of parliamentary democracy) its more like wait 5 years

"In ComRes’s other questions – they found 58% disagreed with the statement that Britain was better off with a coalition government than a single party. 36% thought Ed Miliband was proving a good leader of the Labour party with 42% disagreeing (figures for Clegg were 37% thinking he was doing a good job, 52% disagree. Finally 36% thought that Labour would do a better job than the coalition on the economy, but 54% disagreed."

It can't be good news for Labour that their leader is polling worse than Clegg

Yes, when you go deeper, it is looking good for the Tories. As long as they stay ahead on economic issues they will be ok. It will take a long time for Labour to regain economic credibility after the banking crisis, recession and  deficit. Labour's only hope of a swift return to power is if inflation shoots up, unemployment rises and the economy looks like being killed by the austerity measures. But if we muddle along as we are, I think the Tories are favourties to win a second term (but the Lib Dems are finished either way)

"In ComRes’s other questions – they found 58% disagreed with the statement that Britain was better off with a coalition government than a single party. 36% thought Ed Miliband was proving a good leader of the Labour party with 42% disagreeing (figures for Clegg were 37% thinking he was doing a good job, 52% disagree. Finally 36% thought that Labour would do a better job than the coalition on the economy, but 54% disagreed."

It can't be good news for Labour that their leader is polling worse than Clegg

Yes, when you go deeper, it is looking good for the Tories. As long as they stay ahead on economic issues they will be ok. It will take a long time for Labour to regain economic credibility after the banking crisis, recession and  deficit. Labour's only hope of a swift return to power is if inflation shoots up, unemployment rises and the economy looks like being killed by the austerity measures. But if we muddle along as we are, I think the Tories are favourties to win a second term (but the Lib Dems are finished either way)

 

 

I agree. The Tories have been very canny., letting the Lib Dems take pretty much ALL the flak for the coalition's cackhanded and socially destructive policies. Their best bet now is to have an election in May. With Labour clearly unprepared for an early election, they would, I think, win a comfortable majority and leave the Lib Dems as a spent force with very few MPs left. They might have no idea how to run the country or develop well thought-through policies that actually save money in the first place, but they know how to use a naive party of political opportunists to ensure their own position in government.

I'm really not sure if there's any appetite for a Tory government, and if they did call an election I think enough people would be genuinely angry that they'd shafted the LibDems so openly that there would be enough of a backlash to ensure that at the very least we ended up at square one (ish).

For the LibDems I fear that their standing would only be marginally higher if tehy'd entered into coalition with Labour. Coalition was always going to be the kiss of death for them because any successes/popular policies would be associated with the senior partner while there are, as noted above, subtle ways to blame the junior partner for the nasty stuff.

As a party it would have been better for them to hold the balance of power. As a nation I'm not sure that would have done the trick in relation to the markets etc, and it would probably have broken down even more quickly because the LibDems could show dissent publicly.

Until there is a clear leader in the polls I can't see the point in an election.