So we are looking at, at the very least, the warmest winter since 1868-69 despite a January and February which have for modern times been wholly unremarkable. The same pairing was markedly warmer in 2002, 2007, 2008 and 2014  but of course none of them were proceeded by such a flukishly warm December. 

I think I can be fairly confident in saying that, for the CET series at least, we will not have the warmest winter on record this year.

The stats on the Hadley site just take the mean temperature for each of the three winter months and divide by 3. 

1868/9 had a total figure of 20.3C if you add up the 3 winter months which gives an average of 6.77C when divided by 3.

For 2015/16 I expect the February CET to finish at 4.9C. This gives a total of 20.0C for the winter months and a mean of 6.67C. Allowing for the fact that my calculations can be 0.1-0.2C out that would still not be enough to even equal the record.

A more accurate calculation on a daily basis gives a mean for 1868/9 of 6.74C. My calculations for 2015/16 give 6.71C so this is closer but we still miss the record.

Guys...
Have I missed the March CET forum?

No I have not posted it yet. Will get to it shortly.

A very cold night in prospect tonight, might send the cet tumbling a little more.

Met Office Hadley                5.1c.           Anomaly         1.6c.     Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                            5.01c.         Anomaly         0.81c.

Netweather                         5.48c.         Anomaly         1.29c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather       5.3c.           Anomaly           0.8c.

Clevedon Weather                6.7c.          Anomaly           1.4c.

Mount Sorrel                        5.4c.          Anomaly           1.2c.

Peasedown St John               5.4c.          Anomaly           1.7c.       

I think I can be fairly confident in saying that, for the CET series at least, we will not have the warmest winter on record this year.

The stats on the Hadley site just take the mean temperature for each of the three winter months and divide by 3. 

1868/9 had a total figure of 20.3C if you add up the 3 winter months which gives an average of 6.77C when divided by 3.

For 2015/16 I expect the February CET to finish at 4.9C. This gives a total of 20.0C for the winter months and a mean of 6.67C. Allowing for the fact that my calculations can be 0.1-0.2C out that would still not be enough to even equal the record.

A more accurate calculation on a daily basis gives a mean for 1868/9 of 6.74C. My calculations for 2015/16 give 6.71C so this is closer but we still miss the record.

Hmm, think the Met Office/Beeb are getting way ahead of themselves....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/35678575

Specific mention of the highest ever CET (after the boring 1910 temperature series).

Mark

 

 

Hmm, think the Met Office/Beeb are getting way ahead of themselves....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/35678575

Specific mention of the highest ever CET (after the boring 1910 temperature series).

Mark

 

 

Yes- it's not perfectly clear what (or when) he is referring to with each bit of information but it does sound as if Matt T says the CET was the highest ever recorded. Others- look at this link and see what you think.

Feb will be 3.4C(-0.1C) here.
Since January was only about +1C I struggle to understand all these claims of mildest ever.
It certainly has't been mildest ever further north, it just feels like a mild-ish winter with slightly less snow and frost than normal especially in December. 

Daffodils and such - locally - agree, they are still needing some mild days to open.
The early types in a sheltered spot have been out in late Feb several times before but aren't open yet this year.

If they announce the highest CET on record, it will be for political reasons with massaged figures.

No way can this be the mildest ever winter, regardless of the disgusting December we had to endure.

2013-14 was overall milder - I don't even recall a single airfrost in our locale for the whole of that winter.

P.S. here in Worcestershire, recorded -2 celsius last night - current reading at 10:33 is 3.2 celsius.

Met Office Hadley            5.1c.              Anomaly         1.3c.      Provisional to  28th..

Metcheck                        4.92c.             Anomaly           0.72c.

Netweather                     5.42c.             Anomaly           1.23c.

Peasedown St John          5.3c.               Anomaly           1.6c.      

If they announce the highest CET on record, it will be for political reasons with massaged figures.

No way can this be the mildest ever winter, regardless of the disgusting December we had to endure.

2013-14 was overall milder - I don't even recall a single airfrost in our locale for the whole of that winter.

P.S. here in Worcestershire, recorded -2 celsius last night - current reading at 10:33 is 3.2 celsius.

You've collected the data and done the sums then?

So - all you maths brains- where are we with this? I based all my earlier thoughts on 6.77; so if the MetO bases things on three means divided by 3, that'll be unfair in that it gives the shortest and coldest month equal weighting. But is it even that close any mre?

 

So - all you maths brains- where are we with this? I based all my earlier thoughts on 6.77; so if the MetO bases things on three means divided by 3, that'll be unfair in that it gives the shortest and coldest month equal weighting. But is it even that close any mre?

 

No I have not posted it yet. Will get to it shortly.

GW..

Thanks

I did a seach and it came up with nothing.

But so have some of my other searches recently,    so I just wondered.

It has been another snowflake free winter here, making it since April 2nd 2013 that a flake of snow has been spotted IMBY. 

Disturbing or what?

Final value looks to be 5.0c....Before corrections.... 

Whilst we love to see weather records broken, this is one record I hope isn't broken.

It has been a retort to the man made CC lobby that the "warmest winter ever" was in Victorian times 

Whilst we love to see weather records broken, this is one record I hope isn't broken.

It has been a retort to the man made CC lobby that the "warmest winter ever" was in Victorian times 

Because a single warm winter in this small part of the world disproves climate change?