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Whether Idle
29 February 2016 18:47:37

 


It has been another snowflake free winter here, making it since April 2nd 2013 that a flake of snow has been spotted IMBY. 


Disturbing or what?


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
29 February 2016 22:00:01

Final value looks to be 5.0c....Before corrections.... 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
kendalian
29 February 2016 22:50:14

Whilst we love to see weather records broken, this is one record I hope isn't broken.


It has been a retort to the man made CC lobby that the "warmest winter ever" was in Victorian times 

The Professional
01 March 2016 11:44:10
4.90 final answer. So looks like the record has been officially missed.
Snowshoe
01 March 2016 12:01:49


Whilst we love to see weather records broken, this is one record I hope isn't broken.


It has been a retort to the man made CC lobby that the "warmest winter ever" was in Victorian times 


Originally Posted by: kendalian 


 


Because a single warm winter in this small part of the world disproves climate change?

lanky
01 March 2016 12:02:53

4.90 final answer. So looks like the record has been officially missed.

Originally Posted by: The Professional 


Winter 2015/6 comes out as 6.67 on a monthly average basis or 6.71 on a daily mean CET basis which are both less than 1868/9 which has 6.77 (monthly) and 6.74 (daily)


2015/6 is second mildest in both calculations (monthly basis since 1659 and daily CET since 1772)


 


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
yorkshirelad89
01 March 2016 12:04:51

Yes it looks as though the CET will just miss out, for the UK as a whole though I reckon this winter will be a bit further down the list as the anomalous warmth in December was not as strong in Northern areas, with January and February not a great deal above average in more northern areas.


Here on the south coast in Southampton it probably is the warmest on record, simply because December was truly exceptional with an anomaly over 6C above average. January was also mild here but February has been closer to normal.


Hull
ScientificOregon
01 March 2016 12:17:03


Yes it looks as though the CET will just miss out, for the UK as a whole though I reckon this winter will be a bit further down the list as the anomalous warmth in December was not as strong in Northern areas, with January and February not a great deal above average in more northern areas.


Here on the south coast in Southampton it probably is the warmest on record, simply because December was truly exceptional with an anomaly over 6C above average. January was also mild here but February has been closer to normal.


Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 

Even here in northeast England December was incredible, maybe not 6c above but even 4c above is exceptional. End of Jan and beginning of Feb were well above average here also.


My Question is as to Weather Forecasting: Is the Future Always set in stone or can Events in the Present Change the course of the Future?
ARTzeman
02 March 2016 12:05:27

Met Office Hadley      4.9c.    Anomaly     1.1c.   For the month of February...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ScientificOregon
02 March 2016 15:24:28

Just had a look at first 2 cet months and I think our leader has an anomaly of just 0.25! A very high standard for us all .


My Question is as to Weather Forecasting: Is the Future Always set in stone or can Events in the Present Change the course of the Future?
Saint Snow
08 March 2016 11:14:12

Looking forward to the results & league table...




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Global Warming
09 March 2016 21:53:50

Sorry for the delay. Gradually getting round to updating things.


Here are the final charts for February and for winter. As previously discussed we just missed the record for the warmest winter ever on the CET series. 2015/6 finished at 6.71C compared to 6.74C in 1868/9. But nevertheless still a very warm winter for England and Wales. All three months were well above average.


The maximum and minimum CET series only go back to 1878 so don't quite cover the record year of 1868/9. 


The minimum winter CET for 2015/6 was 3.73C. This is only the 3rd warmest in the series. 2007 recorded 3.77C and 1935 recorded 3.83C.


The maximum winter CET for 2015/6 was 9.63C. This is the highest on record. The previous high was 9.33C in 1989.


The February CET finished at 4.90C. Congratulations to Dougie and springsunshine who had the exact figure with their predictions.


The maximum CET for February was 1C above average, the minimum CET only just over 0.25C above average. So quite a difference there. 


I have also included a table below showing the winter CET by region (this series only goes back to 1910). This shows that central and southern parts of England and Wales had their warmest winter on record but further north it was much cooler. Scotland and Northern Ireland were well short of the record in those areas. Still warm but much less so than further south.


 

Grandad
09 March 2016 23:18:49


Sorry for the delay. Gradually getting round to updating things.


Here are the final charts for February and for winter. As previously discussed we just missed the record for the warmest winter ever on the CET series. 2015/6 finished at 6.71C compared to 6.74C in 1868/9. But nevertheless still a very warm winter for England and Wales. All three months were well above average.


The maximum and minimum CET series only go back to 1878 so don't quite cover the record year of 1868/9. 


The minimum winter CET for 2015/6 was 3.73C. This is only the 3rd warmest in the series. 2007 recorded 3.77C and 1935 recorded 3.83C.


The maximum winter CET for 2015/6 was 9.63C. This is the highest on record. The previous high was 9.33C in 1989.


The February CET finished at 4.90C. Congratulations to Dougie and springsunshine who had the exact figure with their predictions.


The maximum CET for February was 1C above average, the minimum CET only just over 0.25C above average. So quite a difference there. 


I have also included a table below showing the winter CET by region (this series only goes back to 1910). This shows that central and southern parts of England and Wales had their warmest winter on record but further north it was much cooler. Scotland and Northern Ireland were well short of the record in those areas. Still warm but much less so than further south.


 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


Thanks GW. You really do put in a tremendous amount of time and effort.


It is appreciated, I am sure, by all on here. 

Dougie
10 March 2016 00:07:19

Thanks for the updates Simon.


Ha'way the lads
Saint Snow
15 March 2016 10:37:10


Looking forward to the results & league table...



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


** Nudge **


 



 


 


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Global Warming
15 March 2016 22:09:44

Apologies for the long delay. Finally here are the tables for February. Congratulations to springsunshine, one of those whose February prediction was spot on, he is the new leader. All very tight though at this early point in the year. 


Wooden spoon to moomin75 I think this month. He managed to fall an impressive 59 places in the tables.


Saint Snow
16 March 2016 12:08:56

Cheers, GW - love the comp & the stats you put so much work into


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ScientificOregon
16 March 2016 12:09:21

Thankyou for the table GW and for making allowances for missing a month. Do you happen to know what the all time record yearly low anomaly is since this competition started is? Our leaders must be on course for the all time record I'm guessing? 


My Question is as to Weather Forecasting: Is the Future Always set in stone or can Events in the Present Change the course of the Future?
Saint Snow
16 March 2016 12:12:44


Thankyou for the table GW and for making allowances for missing a month. Do you happen to know what the all time record yearly low anomaly is since this competition started is? Our leaders must be on course for the all time record I'm guessing? 


Originally Posted by: ScientificOregon 


 


IIRC, the record was broken in 2014. TBH, getting a low annual anomaly score is really dependant on getting a year with few extreme monthly deviations from the CET average.


Still, it would be good to see how the annual winners have fared in terms of total anomaly.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
lanky
16 March 2016 12:22:16


Thankyou for the table GW and for making allowances for missing a month. Do you happen to know what the all time record yearly low anomaly is since this competition started is? Our leaders must be on course for the all time record I'm guessing? 


Originally Posted by: ScientificOregon 


Brave call with 10 months still to go


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
ScientificOregon
16 March 2016 12:29:45

I am a little ahead of myself but even after this month some of our leaders could be still below 1 for the first 3 months. Nothing but brilliant really.


My Question is as to Weather Forecasting: Is the Future Always set in stone or can Events in the Present Change the course of the Future?
ARTzeman
16 March 2016 12:31:32

Thank you for the table GW.   Always worth waiting  for... 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 March 2016 18:34:25

Cheers GW.  I second Art's post.  I know it's not a two minute job and I'm just grateful to you for providing this competition. 


I don't know what I'm doing right down there though!  Must try harder!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Bertwhistle
16 March 2016 18:45:05

Great stats GW; happy with current 6th. At that rate I might only slip to...36th for the year!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Twister
17 March 2016 08:58:20
Thanks GW, much appreciated. Happy to be in the top 20!
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

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