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It would be great if we could just nudge it up to 10C.
There is every chance of a 10c cet for December,even if it doesn`t quite make 10c,it doesn`t detract from this month being one of the most remarkable months in the whole of the cet record.To put it into some perspective ther ehave been many colder Octobers most Aprils and even a few mays colder!
Imby the mean is still on course to be 12c+ truly insane for December
Met Office Hadley 9.8c. Anomaly 5.0c. Provisional to 26th.
Metcheck 9.74c. Anomaly 4.75c.
Netweather 10.39c. Anomaly 5.3c.
This December not much 'colder' than the coldest June I believe, which is somewhere in the 10s? Astounding!
the lowest June CET is 11.5C. The lowest September is 10.5C though.
How many Mays will have been colder than this December.
I make it 36 Mays if we base it on this month CET' ing at 9.8C. That's almost exactly 10% of all the Mays since the start of the Manley series (1659). However, only 5 of these were 20th Century (most notably 1996 as it was so recent) and none in the 21st. Also of interest: there were more in 19th Century than the 17th Century.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt
Met Office Hadley 9.8c. Anomaly 5.0c. Provisional to 27th.
Metcheck 9.77c. Anomaly 4.78c.
Netweather 10.4c. Anomaly 5.32c.
This December could be the mildest month (numerically) until June next year. It is within the realms of possibility.
If we stay at 9.8C that is 1.7C above the existing record. 9.8C is-coincidentally- 1.7C below the existing low June record of 11.5C in 1675. So the same margin would (seriously unlikely, granted)- bring us a June of 9.8- meaning this could be the warmest month until July next year.
I'm surprised it's not nudged up to 9.9 or 10.0 in the last 2 days. It's been extreme down here - a mean of somewhere close to 14 in my area, and not far off in Rothamsted and Malvern from what I can see.
That's Biblical- Eocene almost (well, maybe not quite 5-8C AP, but pretty amazing all the same). You must've been getting night time temps around 13 minimum?
Max 15.5, min 13, tiny variation in temperature for about 36 hours. In line with local stations eg London City airport.
Well, that's my guess shattered! We were all wrong but some more so than others!
What makes the comparison with June so remarkable is that both June and December are at opposite ends of the equinox - if that makes sense. June with the longest day and December the shortest, so I'd expect daylight hours to be warmer. The sun shone yesterday and it had warmth, so imagine what the CET might have been if we'd had more sunny days this month. Well, that's my guess shattered! We were all wrong but some more so than others!
What makes the comparison with June so remarkable is that both June and December are at opposite ends of the equinox - if that makes sense. June with the longest day and December the shortest, so I'd expect daylight hours to be warmer. The sun shone yesterday and it had warmth, so imagine what the CET might have been if we'd had more sunny days this month.
You're quite right Caz. Its almost scary. I know what you mean.
A perspective from other parts of Europe
France - warmest December since 1900. Generally temperatures more than 4C above average. In addition 2015 is the 4th warmest on record (2003, 2011 and 2014 were warmer)
http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/32167565-un-mois-de-decembre-printanier-pour-finir-l-annee-2015
Netherlands - mean temperature of 9.5C. Warmer than the average temperature for April. Almost as high as the 9.9C recorded in November and October this year. Warmest December since records began in 1706. Christmas Day and Boxing Day warmest since 1901. On 17 December the temperature reached 16.6C which is just 0.1C below the Dutch record for December. 2015 is the joint 5th warmest year since 1901.
https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/nieuws/zachtste-december-in-tenminste-drie-eeuwen
DWD in Germany suggesting a 65% chance of winter being warmer than average in Germany.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CXU4boQWwAAK5ef.png
Met Office Hadley 9.8c. Anomaly 5.1c. Provisional to 28th.
Metcheck 9.71c. Anomaly 4.79c.
Netweather 10.42c. Anomaly 5.33c.
With the Autumn and Winter months being so mild this year, the annual CET is surely going to be above average, despite us having a less than memorable, average Summer.
I'm wondering how much variation in the CET there is between the lowest and highest months in a normal year and how it compares to this year because it almost feels like it's been just one continuous season for the past 12 months.
With the Autumn and Winter months being so mild this year, the annual CET is surely going to be above average, despite us having a less than memorable, average Summer. I'm wondering how much variation in the CET there is between the lowest and highest months in a normal year and how it compares to this year because it almost feels like it's been just one continuous season for the past 12 months.
It's felt like one season for about 3 years