Minimum temperatures have been remarkable so far this month.

My own data here in Basingstoke shows a mean minimum for the first 13 days of the month of an incredible 9.75C (using midnight to midnight data). The 09z to 09z figures are usually higher so could be around 10C.

It is even more remarkable when you consider that my mean minimum temperature for September was just 8.01C. Even June only saw a mean minimum of 10.17C.

Last night felt unusually chilly, yet here in London it didn't get below 8C. Good news for users of central heating this month.

Met  Office  Hadley                  11.5c.           Anomaly       3.9c.    Provisional  to  14th

Metcheck                                11.19c.         Anomaly       4.27c. 

Netweather                             11.93c.         Anomaly       5.04c.

Cheadle Hulme  Weather          11.3c.           Anomaly       2.4c.

Clevedon   Weather                  13.0c.          Anomaly       3.4c.

Peasedown Mean                      11.6c.          Anomaly       3.2c. 

Met Office Hadley                 11.4c.         Anomaly      4.0c.   Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                             11.29c.       Anomaly      4.37c.

Netweather                          12.1c.         Anomaly      5.21c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather        11.5c.         Anomaly      2.6c.

Clevedon Weather                 13.1c.         Anomaly     3.5c.

Mount   Sorrel                       11.8c.         Anomaly     4.9c.

Peasedown Mean                   11.7c.         Anomaly     3.3c.   

After a cooler day yesterday the very mild conditions return during the course of today. It looks like staying mild through next week, indeed very mild still at times. By next Friday the CET will still be above 11C. The chart below shows that we will still be slightly behind 1938 which was the warmest November on record for the first 3 weeks.

However, the models have for a while now been suggesting something much colder from next Saturday. This now seems to be firming up as a big change. As the chart below shows temperatures will only be slightly below average but compared to the very warm conditions we have been seeing it will feel really quite cold. The CET will also start plunging and could get down close to 9C by the end of the month if things verify as currently shown.

Thanks GW.

November 1994 set to hang on by the skin of its teeth then? 

Met Office Hadley                11.4c.            Anomaly        4.0c.   Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                       .    11.19c.          Anomaly        4.27c.

Netweather                         12.04c.          Anomaly        5.15c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather       11.4c.            Anomaly        2.5c.

Clevedon Weather               13.0c.            Anomaly        3.4c.

Mount Sorrel                       11.7c.            Anomaly        4.8c.

Peasedown Mean                 11.7c.            Anomaly        3.3c.

Met  Office  Hadley            11.4c.        Anomaly      4.0c.    Provisional to  17th.

Metcheck                          11.21c       Anomaly       4.29c

Netweather                       12.03c       Anomaly       5.14c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather     11.4c.       Anomaly        2.5c

Clevedon Weather              13.1c        Anomaly       3.5c

Mount  Sorrel                     11.6c.       Anomaly       4.7c.

Peasedown  Mean               11.8c.       Anomaly       3.4c 

The GFS 12z op run gives me 9.3 to 9.5*C as an estimate for the final CET this month. Despite a recovery of daytime temps in a more westerly regime next week, nights remain on the chilly side until the 29th.

Any changes in the orientation of the jet stream across the UK and as a result the belt of high pressure from the Azores to Europe will make a notable difference next week, perhaps a big one if the flow turns out flatter mid-week. ECM had that scenario this morning and looked conducive to a mild night Tue-Wed and another one Thu-Fri. 

On the one hand I wouldn't mind a milder outcome to keep the record in reach, but on the other it would be neat to finish close to the CET despite how far down the table I am. Since I started paying a lot less attention to the model guidance by errors have generally been a good deal lower 

I think this month will see me fall from the top table but I've enjoyed being there for so long - which makes a change. 

I really don't mind it being mild, saving heating bills but I'm ready for some cold and snow now.

Met office Hadley                  11.3c.         Anomaly      4.1c.  Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                              11.19c.       Anomaly      4.27c.

Netweather                           12.0c.         Anomaly      5.11c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather         11.3c.         Anomaly      2.3c.

Clevedon Weather                  13.0c.         Anomaly      3.4c.

Mount  Sorrel                         11.6c.         Anomaly      4.7c.

Peasedown   Mean                  11.7c          Anomaly      3.3c.       

9.9C here, which is +3C - even with the cooler spell expected, it will be the first significntly above average month this year.

The CET currently stands at 11.12C up to today by my calculations. Very impressive indeed to keep it above 11C this long.

Tomorrow the CET will still be slightly above average but much cooler than of late and the CET will dip below 11C. Saturday to Monday will see a short sharp shock with the CET around 1.5-2.5C which is way below average. By Tuesday the CET is back above average and stays there until the end of the month.

Nonetheless the relatively colder conditions for the last third of the month will see the CET crash well below the 1994 record. Currently I expect the CET to finish at 9.3C so below even the 9.6C in 2011.

Met Office Hadley             11.3c.       Anomaly      4.0c.   Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                         11.0c.       Anomaly      4.08c.

Netweather                      11.87c.     Anomaly      4.98c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather      11.2c.       Anomaly      2.2c.

Clevedon Weather             12.9c.       Anomaly      3.3c.

Mount Sorrel                     11.4c.      Anomaly       4.5c.

Peasedown Mean               11.6c.      Anomaly       3.2c.

Met Office Hadley              11.0c.   Anomaly   3.9c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                           10.66c.  Anomaly   3.74c.

Netweather                        11.58c.  Anomaly   4.69c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather      10.9c.   Anomaly   2.0.c.

Clevedon Weather               12.7c.  Anomaly   3.1c.

Mount Sorrel                       11.1c.  Anomaly   4.2c.

Peasedown     Mean            11.4c.   Anomaly    3.0c. 

Met Office  Hadley               10.7c.          Anomaly         3.6c.      Provisional to  21st.

Metcheck                            10.23c.         Anomaly          3.31c.

Netweather                         11.15c.         Anomaly          4.26c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather       10.5c.          Anomaly           1.6c.

Clevedon Weather                12.3c.         Anomaly            2.7c.

Mount  Sorrel                       10.6c.         Anomaly            3.7c.

Peasedown    Mean               11.0c.        Anomaly             2.6c.

 Met Office Hadley                 10.3c.        Anomaly           3.3c.      Provisional  to 22nd

Metcheck                               9.84c.        Anomaly           2.92c.

Netweather                           10.4c.        Anomaly           3.85c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather          10.1c.        Anomaly           1.2c.

Clevedon  Weather                  11.9c.       Anomaly            2.3c.

Mount    Sorrel                        10.2c.       Anomaly            3.3c.

Peasedown   Mean                   10.6c.       Anomaly            2.2c.

Met  Office   Hadley               10.0c.         Anomaly       3.0c.       Provisional  to  23rd.

Metcheck                              9.67c.          Anomaly        2.74c.

Netweather                           10.4c.          Anomaly        3.51c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather         9.8c.           Anomaly         0.9c.

Clevedon Weather                 11.7c.          Anomaly         2.1c.

Mount Sorrel                         10.0c.          Anomaly         3.1c.

Peasedown Weather               11.0c.         Anomaly          2.6c.      

Impressive how the provisional CET has plummeted from 11.3 on 19th to 10.0 on 23rd. This late in the month, that 1.3C difference reflects the anomalous weekend just past.

Met Office Hadley              9.8c.       Anomaly     2.9c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                         9.57c.      Anomaly       2.65c.

Netweather                    10.29c.      Anomaly       3.4c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather   9.7c.       Anomaly        0.8c

Clevedon Weather           11.7c.     Anomaly         2.1c.

Mount    Sorrel                  9.8c.       Anomaly      2.9c.

Peasedown   Mean             10.2c.      Anomaly       1.8c.           

It's down to 8.3C here after the past cooler week it's +1.7C
Will go down a little more yet I expect.

Impressive how the provisional CET has plummeted from 11.3 on 19th to 10.0 on 23rd. This late in the month, that 1.3C difference reflects the anomalous weekend just past.

down another degree and I'll be happy