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Solar Cycles
17 August 2015 18:09:46

Some impressive lingering patches to be found.

 

http://webstartravel.com/melting-snow-leaves-behind-magical-frozen-caves-in-scotland-2/

Norseman
31 August 2015 20:51:30

For any wondering how the snow patches did this Summer see the provisional table below for the late August count [21st]. There were still a good number of reports to come, especially from the North West at this stage. Usually few patches make it through in that part of the Highlands but this year there were lots, many in pretty inaccessible areas so a few will probably be missed. From the 281 last year 21 made it through to the lasting snows despite them coming late. This year unless there is a mild Autumn more may to survive than in any year since at least 2000 and possibly 1994' a very successful year for snow survival.

 Edit. Now 648 patches in the count.

FB_IMG_1440681528122.jpg

Edit again. 654 and rising.

However in the days following the count there was a thaw in the strong mild SE gale so some of these probably didn't make September.

Chiltern Blizzard
06 September 2015 12:53:45
Isn't this a way in which ice ages are believed to begin... A winter has sufficiently heavy snowfall and the summer months are sufficiently cool to allow snow patches to last the year... The effect builds in a positive feedback loop until permanent ice fields are created.... 81 rising to 281 rising to 654.... Over 1,000 next year?... Or maybe fewer but larger areas as patches join.

Obviously Scotland is but a dot in the global climate system though...


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Essan
06 September 2015 15:24:27

Isn't this a way in which ice ages are believed to begin... A winter has sufficiently heavy snowfall and the summer months are sufficiently cool to allow snow patches to last the year... The effect builds in a positive feedback loop until permanent ice fields are created.... 81 rising to 281 rising to 654.... Over 1,000 next year?... Or maybe fewer but larger areas as patches join.

Obviously Scotland is but a dot in the global climate system though...

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 



Aye.   Mild winters with copious snowfall and cool summers.   But across the whole North Atlantic region.  And lasting centuries.   Which is what we started seeing during the little ice age.    But thats all long gone with most ice caps now smaller than in the MWP.   Back to square one.   But one of these days 



Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

Solar Cycles
07 September 2015 18:48:54



Aye.   Mild winters with copious snowfall and cool summers.   But across the whole North Atlantic region.  And lasting centuries.   Which is what we started seeing during the little ice age.    But thats all long gone with most ice caps now smaller than in the MWP.   Back to square one.   But one of these days 


Originally Posted by: Essan 

Err no there not and we simply don't know what the future holds, unless you believe in the hype that is.

DEW
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07 September 2015 19:01:18

 

FB_IMG_1440681528122.jpg

 

Originally Posted by: Norseman 

This table looks like an extract from a website. Do you have a link?

I have to admit to being sceptical about such a dramatic increase in snow patches (although potentially excited by it), even given the favourable weather conditions of the last two years. So I'd like to read up on the method used for counting, just to reassure myself that the same method was being used in, say, 2010 and 2015.

Could it be that reporting is so much easier, with images of patches now shareable on social media?


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Essan
07 September 2015 19:25:37

 

This table looks like an extract from a website. Do you have a link?

I have to admit to being sceptical about such a dramatic increase in snow patches (although potentially excited by it), even given the favourable weather conditions of the last two years. So I'd like to read up on the method used for counting, just to reassure myself that the same method was being used in, say, 2010 and 2015.

Could it be that reporting is so much easier, with images of patches now shareable on social media?

Originally Posted by: DEW 



As I understand it, this is based on actual visual observations.  

The increase is likely to be a blip, I doubt any in previous years were missed and have no doubts either on this years figures, despite the number.   Many will be quite small.  I think there have been a lot of small remnants in gullies in the northwest, which is unusual - normally only lochaber and the Cairngorms retain snow patches this late.  


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

DEW
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07 September 2015 19:53:35



As I understand it, this is based on actual visual observations.  
 

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Indeed: I'd expect no less. My point rather was, how are these observations collected up? Even as recently as 2010, your explorer in NW Scotland wouldn't have had an Internet connection to go with their camera phone; now they might even send a photo of the snowpatch before they're off the hill and certainly before getting home. So is it the snowpatches that are increasing in number, or the reporting that's increasing in frequency?


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Norseman
08 September 2015 12:10:22

 

This table looks like an extract from a website. Do you have a link?

I have to admit to being sceptical about such a dramatic increase in snow patches (although potentially excited by it), even given the favourable weather conditions of the last two years. So I'd like to read up on the method used for counting, just to reassure myself that the same method was being used in, say, 2010 and 2015.

Could it be that reporting is so much easier, with images of patches now shareable on social media?

Originally Posted by: DEW 

The survey is based on actual observations on a given [similar date near to 21st August] each year. It is very well organised by Iain Cameron and published in the Royal Meteriological Society's Scientific Journal "weather". It has been produced for many years with a significant contribution from Dr Adam Watson whose knowledge of the Scottish Highlands is probably unparalleled.

If anything this year, given the numbers and distribution of patches over a much greater area than usual, it is more likely that patches have been missed than in previous years.

There are threads on the Winterhighland forum that gives much more detail about the survey.

JHutch
08 September 2015 12:51:37

Can understand why the figures might be met with scepticism but generally speaking the 4000 foot (1220m) mountains are the ones where any snow patches are normally found at the end of summer. There aren't many of those but if conditions are favourable for snow to survive, say, 500-800 feet lower then this enables snow to survive on a lot more mountains, and in more places on the highest mountains.

firefly
08 September 2015 14:55:47

The August survey methods have been the same since its inception in 2008. Namely, volunteers actually physically counting each patch of snow from a vantage point, taking photographs and notes where necessary. Each patch of snow, no matter how large or small, is counted as separate and is recorded as such.

Scepticism of the figures is understandable, though unwarranted. Every one of the patches on each hill is physically counted by trusted observers and then relayed to me, and from which I calculate the total amount.

2015 has been a remarkable year so far, with patches of snow found on survey day on Beinn Mhanach (Bridge of Orchy) in the south, to Beinn Dearg (Ullapool) in the north. There were over 100 hills this year that held snow, with Ben Nevis having 58 on its own. Some had only one or two.

As it stands there was a total of around 670 patches of snow counted, and I am still finalising the end figure. This is a very high number, and is almost certainly down to a large amount of westerly snow-storms in winter, coupled with a very cool summer.

I organise the annual survey and collect all the data, and I can assure all members on here that each and every patch of snow included in the survey was seen and counted.

Saint Snow
08 September 2015 15:32:19

The August survey methods have been the same since its inception in 2008. Namely, volunteers actually physically counting each patch of snow from a vantage point, taking photographs and notes where necessary. Each patch of snow, no matter how large or small, is counted as separate and is recorded as such.

Scepticism of the figures is understandable, though unwarranted. Every one of the patches on each hill is physically counted by trusted observers and then relayed to me, and from which I calculate the total amount.

2015 has been a remarkable year so far, with patches of snow found on survey day on Beinn Mhanach (Bridge of Orchy) in the south, to Beinn Dearg (Ullapool) in the north. There were over 100 hills this year that held snow, with Ben Nevis having 58 on its own. Some had only one or two.

As it stands there was a total of around 670 patches of snow counted, and I am still finalising the end figure. This is a very high number, and is almost certainly down to a large amount of westerly snow-storms in winter, coupled with a very cool summer.

I organise the annual survey and collect all the data, and I can assure all members on here that each and every patch of snow included in the survey was seen and counted.

Originally Posted by: firefly 

 

Fascinating stuff - and thanks for taking the time to come on here to post.


Martin

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DEW
  • DEW
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11 September 2015 16:35:50

Thanks to both Norseman and Firefly for dealing so politely with my sceptical remarks - perhaps my view is coloured by the fact that we haven't even had measurable snow lying down here for the last two years!


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

four
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21 September 2015 06:32:29
Norseman
24 September 2015 21:30:17
A little fresh snow lying at the top of Ben Nevis today and also on the Cairngorms. First lying snow of the season I think. Later than in recent years.
Quantum
25 September 2015 23:49:03

A little fresh snow lying at the top of Ben Nevis today and also on the Cairngorms. First lying snow of the season I think. Later than in recent years.

Originally Posted by: Norseman 

Wasn't there some in late July?

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

AIMSIR
26 September 2015 00:45:05

There was me thinking Essan was after buying a new house/cave and having a bit of a show off.

Essan
26 September 2015 08:52:41

There was me thinking Essan was after buying a new house/cave and having a bit of a show off.

Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 





It'd make a great holiday home!


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

AIMSIR
26 September 2015 11:43:38

.

Norseman
26 September 2015 19:17:47

 

Wasn't there some in late July?

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Some fell but didn't lie if I remember correctly.

Essan
27 September 2015 13:30:53

Some fell but didn't lie if I remember correctly.

Originally Posted by: Norseman 



Aye, not sure it settled?   But would that be late spring snow or early autumn snow?   Or just a summer aberation?  


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

Andy Woodcock
13 October 2015 21:10:14
How are the Scottish snow patches doing now?

With so much cool, dry weather recently I imagine little further thawing has occurred and by late October new snow normally accumulates on top of the old stuff.

Could 2015 hold a new record for the number of snow patches surviving summer? Climatic conditions in Scotland this year seem perfect for such a record to be set.

Andy


Andy Woodcock

Penrith

Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001

four
  • four
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14 October 2015 19:28:26

It's not that simple, because until 2008 no one seriously tried to count or keep a record.
However 2015 has seen an astonishing increase at last count.
As you say conditions have been good for retention through autumn with cool and dry-ish conditions predominating.

http://theiaincameron.tumblr.com/post/130550839541/12-august-snow-survey-2015


Caz
  • Caz
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16 October 2015 20:46:20

I'm off up to the Cairngorms in the morning for a week and it would be nice to see a bit of snow.  We were there, near Aviemore, three years ago at the same time of year and saw some snow topped mountains along the way up there.  When we came home a week later, we just missed a heavy fall.  The A9 snow gates closed the day after we left.


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Twister
17 October 2015 20:54:23

It's not that simple, because until 2008 no one seriously tried to count or keep a record.
However 2015 has seen an astonishing increase at last count.
As you say conditions have been good for retention through autumn with cool and dry-ish conditions predominating.

http://theiaincameron.tumblr.com/post/130550839541/12-august-snow-survey-2015

Originally Posted by: four 

That's quite an increase! As you indicate, it would have been interesting to know whether the 2008-13 counts were stupendously low compared to the last 30 years or whether 2015 is impressively high... or neither!

Interesting stuff 


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