Tricky call for August

I'll go for 15.7C without a great deal of belief

16.4C please GW.

16.4c please

Can I have a 15.45 please?  Unfortunately, I think Autumn might come rather earlier this year (it's already paid us a visit once or twice in the past week or two!), aided by these cold SSTs in the Atlantic.

David

Northallerton

15.4C please

Here we go then - the 'gut feeling prediction'!

As much as the models suggest some warmer conditions at times earlier in the month, any return to standard westerlies is likely to bring cooler than average conditions much as they did this month. If the N. Atlantic wasn't so cool out to our west at the moment, I'd go for an above average month, but as it is I'm going to say

15.7*C

...and grimace at what this means statistically, even if the surface weather needn't be all that bad at times (the past couple of days have been really pleasant down here!).

Cheers as always GW - have a great weekend. Same goes for the rest of you too, BBQs on Sunday in the south! 

If the August CET comes in at 15.5C or less it will be the second coldest summer since 1993 (only 2011 being colder).

Going for 16.15 C this month.

Below average, but trying to be more optimistic than some here.

15.8 for me please

TWO on 15.4c can't  be bad.

15.3C please

16.0 please.

Here is the latest estimate of the CET for the first half of August. After a cool start today it looks like the CET will hover around 16C for much of the first half. Not great but relatively much better than the last week or so. That said unless we get a heatwave in the second half of the month we could well be seeing August finish close to last year (i.e. around 15C).

Bear in mind that the mean CET for the first half of August is 16.6C (71-00) but for the second half is only 15.8C. So if we end the first half at 15.8C and it stays a bit below average for the rest of the month then it could easily drift down towards 15C. Of course a lot can change and it could just as easily go in the other direction.