So the provisional Hadley CET is now a whole degree Celsius above my local mean... I am not amused.

Using 3.5*C to 18th as a starting point, the 12z GFS produces a final CET of around 3.8*C.

Allowing for adjustments to the CET it could be as low as 3.6*C but I'm not counting on it. A 1.0*C error is not bad going for the model + signal projection I suppose, though it looks like using a model + LTA combination (i.e. just going for an average second half of the month instead of applying a cold or warm anomaly signal) would have landed closer.

I wonder if March will have a clear signal one way or the other by the final days of this month. At the moment, longer range tools keep switching between high latitude blocking and a strong Azores High extending across the south of the UK... two opposing extremes! 

Met Office Hadley     3.6c...     Anomaly     -0.0c.    Provisional  to 19th.

Metcheck                 3.50c.     Anomaly     -0.70c.

N-W                        3.65c.     Anomaly     -056c.

Mount   Sorrel          2.9c.      Anomaly      -1.3c.

My    Mean               2.9c.      Anomaly      -2.9c.

Met Office Hadley    3.7c.     Anomaly        0.0c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                3.49c.   Anomaly       -0.7c.

N-W                       3.68c.   Anomaly       -0.53c.

Mount Sorrel           2.9c.    Anomaly        -1.3c

My Mean                 3.0c.    Anomaly        -2.8c.         

Met Office Hadley     3.7c.     Anomaly     0.0c.   provisional  to  21st.

Metcheck                 3.42c.   Anomaly    -0.78c.

N-W                        3.66c.   Anomaly    -0.55c.

Mount   Sorrel          2.9c.     Anomaly    -1.3c.

My    Mean               3.0c.     Anomaly    -2.8c.

My Annual  reads 4.0c. Anomaly -1.7c.   

Met Office Hadley      3.7c.     Anomaly     0.0c.      Provisional to  22nd.

Metcheck                   3.47c.   Anomaly    -0.73c.

N-W                            3.66c.   Anomaly    -0.55c

Mount       Sorrel           2.9c.     Anomaly    -1.3c.

My      Mean                   3.0c.     Anomaly    -2.7c.

 Met Office Hadley      3.7c.      Anomaly       0.0c.   Provisional to 23rd.

 Metcheck                  3.53c.    Anomaly       -0.67c.

 N-W                          3.71c.   Anomaly       -0.5c.

 Mount  Sorrel             2.9c.     Anomaly       -1.3c

 My    Mean                 3.1c.     Anomaly       -2.6c.

I'd be surprised if there was much change in the CET now and it's probably as high as it's going to get.  I could do with just a couple of degrees higher.

Latest data suggests the CET will finish at 4.01C this month which is 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean.

Tomorrow and Saturday should be a little above average. Thursday looks very warm largely due to high minimums whereas Friday will be close to average. So the CET should rise by about 0.4C in the next 4 days.

Looking at the winter CET as a whole the current estimate is for a final figure of 4.53C compared to the 1971-2000 mean of 4.51C and a 1981-2010 mean of 4.49C. So this year will be bang on average overall.

CET for the first half of winter 5.5C. CET for the second half of winter 3.6C.

A finish of 4.01c would be just perfect for me GW!   

In all the years I've taken part in the CET competition, I think this is the first time I've been at the top of the table and I'm loving it! 

First 10 days of March currently looking close to average at 5.95C (about 0.2C above average).

The first day of the month should be very mild but then temperatures will be about +-1C from the mean on each of the next 9 days.

Unfortunately your late prediction for February (which was technically outside the window for even a late prediction) is going to land you with a hefty penalty which is a shame. Looks like it was a very good prediction.

Such a shame when that happens - meanwhile some of us can penalise ourselves.....

Certainly seem's like we've lost the insane warmth of 2014, even if we've not gone especially cold... (yet  )

Met Office Hadley           3.8c.       Anomaly    0.1c.   Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                       3.59c.     Anomaly   -0.61c.

N-W                               3.8c.       Anomaly    -0.41c.

Mount  Sorrel                 2.9c.       Anomaly    -1.3c.

My Mean                        3.2c.       Anomaly    -2.5c     

I'll take the penalties on the nose like a man and put in a big effort with my guesses for the next ten months! 

True! However the first 2 months of 2015 look v likely to come in above average,albeit only slightly.

If im not mistaken that will make 14 out of the last 15 months above the cet average.

GW

Any possibility you can post your graphs of the ongoing daily temps of the 3 stations plus yours plus the current projections, plus Hadley out to end of the month? Also what do you see as an adjustemnt this month? 

Disappointed to see the models adjust things to milder still for the final few days of the month but what can you do eh?

Atmosphere one, models (mostly GFS for first 16 days followed by long range signals from EC-32 etc.) zero.

By contrast, it's an adjustment colder that alarms me for next month... GFS 12z leaves us nearly 2*C below the LTA by 9th of the month as signs of a cold continental feed develop further! 

The signals are starting to look a bit like they once did for the middle of February. Hopefully this one will go the way of the pear too.

Met Office Hadley      3.9c.      Anomaly     0.2c.    Provisional  to  25th.

Metcheck                  3.82c.    Anomaly    -0.38c.

N-W                         3.97c.    Anomaly    -0.24c

Mount  Sorrel            2.9c.     Anomaly     -1.3c.

My Mean                   3.4c.     Anomaly     -2.3c.

Met Office Hadley   4.1c.     Anomaly     0.3c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck              3.81c.    Anomaly    -0.39c.

N-W                     4.11c.    Anomaly    -0.1c.

Mount Sorrel         2.9c.      Anomaly    -1.3c.  Been the same for days.. Since the 14th Feb.....

My Mean              3.5c.       Anomaly    -2.2c.

With two days to go my 4.2 looks promising -but what downward adjustment is likely.?

I could do with it being bang on 4c and although it's likely there will be a downward adjustment, I doubt it will be quite enough.

I don't think you will be far off. My latest estimate suggests a final figure of 3.99C

There'll be a 0.9c downwards revision, surely!