Click the link, then click into the URL bar and press enter and it will load. (The site doesn't allow remote linking)

http://jpwxcharts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/blog-post.html 

I'll try and sort ukmo and ecm in due course.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/192h.htm Another run , another 2 inches plus of unwelcome rain in the south and west of the British Isles. Notable again are the continuing rain shadow effects of Britain's New California - The North East.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

You are joking aren't you WI? This part of the UK has just had one of the wettest, if not the wettest, periods of weather on record! The short to midterm outlook is more of the same for many places and especially unpleasant looking in the SW of England.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I was thinking more of North east England and Fife,  Michael.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Sorry WI i may have started that by saying how much drier and brighter the central belt has been Dec Jan and start of Feb but Tayside and Grampian have been wet from the E and SE...sorry Doc!

Much to interest the casual model watcher today.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/96h.htm

A fleeting glimpse of winter from GFS as a channel low spins away, perhaps leaving a slushy mass. 35% of London's runs have snow, 65% rain or dry.

It must be noted how chilly the air will be at times, so the risk of wintriness in the heavier bursts.  The Grampian snow machine will be well oiled.

Generally, some fascinatingly bad charts depicting wind and more to the point, rain.  Dryish  for the Geordies, the Fenlands, the Vale of "Beaver", (but not for Aberdeen) creating this familiar and disturbing picture:

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/192h.htm. 

Some hints at a drier picture in the GFS ensembles from around 16th/17th February.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

The 0z Control run even attempts a colder option

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

WI

YES

Autumn 2000 into mid December. Although they were breaks after this, it was still overall wet right through to the end of April 2001.

And further back the second half of 1960 was very wet

Towards the end of February and into early March, the trend is for less unsettled conditions than we have seen lately, and some drier weather.

That was yesterday meto view of when the pattern  might chnage.

Agree with your analysis of somewhat drie conditions from qaround 20th Feb

The GEFS  0h shows the following  proprtions  of zonal:anticyclonic flow.

240h 60:40

312h 60:40

384h 25:75.

The antcyclonic flow is initially largely driven by an Atlantic ridge with a few colder options(including the control),but gradually HP settles over UK or central europe. Of course its FI ...

there does appear to be something drier in the offing as we head into week 3. it could be brought forward into week 2 but that depends on the canadian vortex playing ball (something it has failed to do all winter). 

amazing winter and record breaking (which is why many of us are here in the first place). we have our extreme, yet because it isnt white and icy, it doesnt seem to have registered as being relevant.

is there a mean slp number in the same way as the cet is recorded. just wondered as, if so,  this winter must be getting close to the lowest figure recorded ?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-0-300.png?0

not the first time the control has hinted at something colder, has a bit of support as well

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-300.png?0

Good morning. Here is the latest production of the output of the NWP suite for the midnight outputs on Saturday February 9th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a very deep Low close to Northern Ireland drifting slowly north over Scotland through the next 24 hours before filling slowly on Monday. The weekend will be very windy with gales and severe gales with some disruption in exposure. There will be showers or spells of rain too, some heavy and thundery with hail, sleet and snow possible over the hills. The showers will die down along with the winds on Monday to give a quieter day overall with showers restricted to the West and North. On Tuesday a further Low pressure looks to be moving in on  a slightly more Northerly trajectory keeping the very strongest winds towards the NW while all areas see another spell of rain followed by showers.

GFS then takes us into midweek with a nasty disturbance running East close to the South with heavy rain and possible local gales before the trend later in the week for continued unsettled and sometimes wet and windy weather as Low pressure areas park to the NW of the UK with a broad SW flow across all areas. Then through next weekend winds are shown to veer NW with wintry showers for a time before something of a North/South split develops with the North seeing further rain at times as troughs cross East while the South sees a lot of dry and bright weather close to High pressure to the South giving some welcome relief to those flooded areas towards the SW.

The GFS Ensembles show a wet week to come before a reduction in rainfall amounts is shown as Low pressure migrates slowly North to allow longer dry periods between the bouts of rainy weather. Temperatures stay largely as they are with some members going for something rather milder in the South later.

UKMO this morning is very poor with Low pressure again shown to be poised close to the West and SW with another spell of gales and rain hitting the UK next Friday following an unsettled couple of days before with showers for most.

GEM remains unrelenting in the passage of Low pressures across the Atlantic and over the UK with rain and gales still featuring for all areas with heavy rain too at times giving rise to further flooding problems.

NAVGEM today keeps a deep Low pressure complex to the North of the UK with smaller disturbances running East in the Westerly flow, affecting mostly Southern areas with more prolonged rainfall between the frequent showers maintained elsewhere.

ECM too shows a very unsettled and potentially stormy end to next week as another powerful storm system crosses over on Friday. thereafter there is a slight suggestion that the position of the depressions will shift a couple of hundred miles further North but conditions at the surface will remain volatile with wind and rain featured highly though the heaviest rain and strongest winds may favour the NW rather than SW with time.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show that in 9 and 10 Days time the bias from the ECM ensemble group today is still an unsettled one for the UK but the bias shifts the core of Low pressure much more to the NW of the mainland with a more mobile pattern of rain followed by showers of the less disruptive kind looking more likely with the NW seeing the most rainfall by then but unfortunately still some for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Jet Stream Summary is for the flow to continue unabated for another week or so across the Atlantic then East over France and Spain. Through the second week the flow is shown to buckle north over the Atlantic finally breaking down the pattern that has afflicted Southern Britain for so long with something rather drier very possible then.

In Summary there is still a suggestion of a possible easing of conditions after next week mostly according to GFS and some of it's ensemble members as the Jet weakens and buckles North to the West. However, there seems little change to recent pattern from the likes of GEM, UKMO or NAVGEM in their end frames but ECM does show a slight shift North of the pattern towards the very end of it's run too. So another very wet and potentially stormy week to come before the trend towards the very worst of the weather to shift towards the North with time while the South sees something rather less extreme to a rather more traditional Atlantic Westerly is my prognosis this morning. Let us hope that High pressure can build North from Europe or the Azores to give much needed relief down here from recent events and hope that is not just a false dawn to be downgraded as it slips into the more reliable time frame.

Thank you Martin ..Looks like the output is going for  a   miserable  mild month ...

Still generally very unsettled for the week ahead with the risk of potent systems moving though with more to come into FI.

Its only in GFS cuckoo land that things dry out a little.

There are some hints in the background of a much more settled and colder regime - GFS control and CFS for instance - but the majority opinion still on wet and windy, easing later.

I wouldn't discount a chnage a la GFS control and a small set of the ENS though.

This is not as bad as the summer 2007. Some of the areas now flooding saw between 400-600mm of rain over the June/July period.

June 2011 - up to 300mm of rain across parts of Cornwall and Devon. Again though another very wet perilous for the south.

July/ August 2005 for my neck of the woods was exceptionally wet. We had between 8-12 inches of rain over those 2 months, ironically most when enduring drought conditions that year lol.

The model output in combination (00z runs) isn't much help beyond the weekend really;

GFS has a small secondary low giving a fair bit of rain and a hint of backend snow to parts of England on Tuesday, this being 'attached' to a frontal system as it progresses east. Meanwhile, it develops LP upstream near to the U.S.

ECM doesn't appear to develop that secondary low as much for Tuesday. Upstream, the LP that GFS develops is hardly developed at all by ECM at this point.

UKMO is similar to ECM for day 3.

On day 4, GFS has LP to the NW and another one upstream to the W. Even the first of those is more or less clear of the UK, so a bit of a lull between systems taking place.

ECM has LP much closer - just NW of the UK - with a wet and windy theme (not too windy in the south though). The upstream low is now being developed.

UKMO is similar to ECM across the UK, but doesn't start developing that upstream LP.

For day 5, GFS and UKMO are similar in having a fairly standard trough to the NW with secondary disturbances giving spells of rain.

ECM has brought in that usptream low as a strong feature, with very strong winds threatening N. Ireland.

Fair to say that the signal for a very extreme event has declined across the models, though.

For day 6, UKMO is now more in agreement with ECM as it develops LP to the SW, while GFS shows less development (on the 00z run, that is - 06z is off at the other end of the scale with the LP bombed out while still to our west!).

...so we can't really predict anything much for next week with much confidence, except for 'changeable or unsettled'.

There's always the possiblity of a spanner in the HP spokes

Cold Pool prevails in Northwest Atlantic but often the Wet and Windy Low's turn it less cold in the UK, but Monday p.m. And Tuesday plus Wednesday and also on Saturday to Sunday in the next 8 days it does turn cold with rain and sleet or even snow showers especially in the North and NW.

Central W and NW USA wet with rain and hill snow with West to East tracking Low's.

See where it sits in the ENS first previously been on the mild side

GFS has been quite keen on spring starting around mid-month for a while now.
Another grim week to get through, and that last Low is more wintry-looking.

Mostly that gut feeling, agreement with Quantum & GFS model than scientific

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gme/run/gme-0-72.png?08-00

Just noticed that the GME model makes something noteworthy out of that small system heading over to us in 3 days time. It's the one ECM made a bomb out of a couple of days ago, so I guess we can't rest easy on that just yet.

Rarely can I recall seeing such a small system cross the Atlantic while not only holding together but actually developing into something stronger - so it's not something I'd bet on, but even so, I'm keeping a close eye on it.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014020806/nmmuk-2-71-0.png?08-12

As far as I can tell, WRF develops it as a seperate system but then abosrbs it into the main trough, creating another strong trough to our NW.

One of the most uncertain model features that I can remember!

(And that's not counting the generally unsettled weather between now and then)