Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday February 7th 2014.
All models show a very deep depression approaching Ireland from the West tonight and carrying a set of fronts East across the UK with attendant heavy rain and increasingly strong winds. the rain will scoot through quite quickly so despite the rain being heavy it shouldn't last too long before clearer and showery weather follows well before dawn. Tomorrow shows a deep Low across Northern Ireland with severe gales and squally showers, perhaps with hail and thunder and snow on Northern hills. Through Sunday the storm system will move North and fill slowly with less windy but still showery weather which may well last into Monday too. By Tuesday a new storm system will be rattling in from the SW with further gales and heavy rain by midweek.
GFS tonight then shows the rest of next week and weekend as further deep Low pressure areas spread wind and rain across the weekend on regular occasions, heavy at times and with strong winds too. In the low resolution part of the run though improvements do manifest themselves in the shape of a rare visitor to our shores of late known as High pressure which would bring a long awaited dry spells with the emphasis shifting from wind and rain to frost and fog with some sunshine by day.
The GFS Ensembles still show a good deal of unsettled and windy weather to come but the best indication yet of some relief late in the run to something drier and brighter with less rainfall and wind.
UKMO tonight shows another deep Low nearing NW Ireland next Thursday with yet more wind and rain spreading steadily North and East across the UK next Thursday with the likelihood of showers and blustery West winds soon after.
GEM tonight shows further wet and windy spells in association with further Low pressure later next week and the weekend with winds slowly becoming lighter with time.
NAVGEM closes next Friday with deep Low pressure over the UK with further rain at times, heavy and prolonged in places though probably with winds less strong.
ECM does show some changes tonight as it moderates the depth of depressions next week and eventually rises pressure over Europe. The question is will it bring better weather for those areas that most need it and I think the answer is probably No. The rise in pressure to the SE eventually brings the prospect of warm moist air travelling North towards SW Britain and with Low pressure close by to the West heavy rain is still likely towards these areas.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate little overall change to the basic pattern of Low pressure being up to the Nprth and NW with a SW flow likely over the UK with further rain at times in temperatures close to the seasonal average.
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The GFS Jet Stream Summary shows some signs of moving through Week 2 as it buckles and ridges Northwards at times disrupting the pattern of successive Low pressure areas moving East with fine interludes in between.
In Summary tonight although the prospects are still well biased towards unsettled conditions continuing the very worst of the conditions may begin to ease as time passes over the second half of the output tonight. So after some more heavy rain and strong winds further rain at times is likely too later on though with time longer drier periods may begin to develop with rainfall less persistent than of late. Temperatures still do not look like straying far from the seasonal average with no more than hill snow possibilities in the North.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset