The Weather Outlook

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KevBrads1
27 January 2014 18:22:47
Winter 1914-15 is the wettest winter on record for England and Wales

December 1914: 190.8mm (7.51") (2nd wettest December on record)

January 1915: 108.7mm (4.28")

February 1915: 123.5mm (4.86") (13th wettest February on record)

Rainfall % of average

England and Wales

Dec 1914: 201%

Jan 1915: 148%

Feb 1915: 196%

Scotland

Dec 1914: 152%

Jan 1915: 109%

Feb 1915: 166%

Ireland

Dec 1914: 187%

Jan 1915: 115%

Feb 1915: 176%

British Isles

Dec 1914: 183%

Jan 1915: 127%

Feb 1915: 181%

Some rainfall totals for this winter

Camden Square: 13.88"

Fawley: 19.00"

Launceston: 24.5"

Colchester: 11.64"

Cardiff: 17.77"

Seathwaite: 55.63"

Glasgow: 12.41"

Edinburgh: 6.76"

Dublin: 11.57"

Belfast: 14.32"


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Hungry Tiger
27 January 2014 23:36:32

Winter 1914-15 is the wettest winter on record for England and Wales

December 1914: 190.8mm (7.51") (2nd wettest December on record)
January 1915: 108.7mm (4.28")
February 1915: 123.5mm (4.86") (13th wettest February on record)

Rainfall % of average
England and Wales
Dec 1914: 201%
Jan 1915: 148%
Feb 1915: 196%

Scotland
Dec 1914: 152%
Jan 1915: 109%
Feb 1915: 166%

Ireland
Dec 1914: 187%
Jan 1915: 115%
Feb 1915: 176%

British Isles
Dec 1914: 183%
Jan 1915: 127%
Feb 1915: 181%

Some rainfall totals for this winter

Camden Square: 13.88"
Fawley: 19.00"
Launceston: 24.5"
Colchester: 11.64"
Cardiff: 17.77"
Seathwaite: 55.63"
Glasgow: 12.41"
Edinburgh: 6.76"
Dublin: 11.57"
Belfast: 14.32"


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

We must be doing well this winter. I.e well on the way to one of the wettest winters on record.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



KevBrads1
28 January 2014 06:44:32

We must be doing well this winter. I.e well on the way to one of the wettest winters on record.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

423.0 1914-15

420.9 1989-90

418.3 1876-77

415.6 1994-95

388.3 1993-94

380.6 1868-69

374.3 1959-60

373.5 1915-16

363.0 1965-66

362.0 1936-37

340.0 1976-77

337.2 1911-12

335.2 1978-79

332.6 1922-23

331.9 2000-01

331.7 1882-83

330.6 1883-84

330.4 1924-25

330.2 1929-30

329.4 1909-10

328.3 1934-35

327.8 2006-07

326.5 1979-80

323.9 1918-19

322.9 1899-00

320.1 1927-28

319.6 1790-91

318.9 1938-39

317.5 1983-84

316.5 2012-13

314.8 1827-28

313.0 1803-04

309.9 1960-61

309.2 1773-74

308.4 1947-48

306.7 1847-48

298.7 1872-73

298.0 1919-20

296.7 1977-78

295.0 1973-74

293.4 1987-88

293.2 1925-26

292.7 1957-58

292.2 1942-43

290.0 1935-36

289.8 1896-97

287.6 1969-70

286.9 1898-99

286.7 1871-72

284.5 1950-51

283.9 1999-2000

283.6 1903-04

283. Up to 26th January


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

JACKO4EVER
28 January 2014 07:05:01
Cheers KevBrads. Fascinating to think we have the whole of February to go- I hate to think where this will lead. Looking at some of the extended data yesterday there is a clear very wet signal coming through. I just hope some of the flood prone areas manage to escape.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 January 2014 11:18:14

Local recording for Oct - Dec is a total of 500 mm, over half the annual average already ( I was told 20" in round terms) With no let-up in January, and none likely for February, it will be interesting to see the 6-month totals for Oct-Mar - particularly in this area where these months are the ones in which groundwater is accumulated. Already we have flowing water on several minor roads and cellars flooded; as groundwater is slow to fall, these conditins could last for months yet.


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

JOHN NI
28 January 2014 11:52:47

Local recording for Oct - Dec is a total of 500 mm, over half the annual average already ( I was told 20" in round terms) With no let-up in January, and none likely for February, it will be interesting to see the 6-month totals for Oct-Mar - particularly in this area where these months are the ones in which groundwater is accumulated. Already we have flowing water on several minor roads and cellars flooded; as groundwater is slow to fall, these conditins could last for months yet.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

On the plus side - can you imagine the length of the drought / fine spells to make up for it !

Give me a wetter winter and a drier summer any time.


John.

The orange County of Armagh.

springsunshine
28 January 2014 15:38:28

Great stuff as always

Here in wareham,Dorset we could well beat the 1914/15 record albeit locally...if another 86mm of rain fall between now and feb 28th our rainfall totall will exceed that winter.

Not sure the uk as awhole though will get anywhere near the record but am sure this winter will now end up with above average rain and temperature.

Adrian W
28 January 2014 17:46:22

Just did a quick calculation from two local weather stations - Teignmouth

December - 221.7mm

Jan (to the 28th) - 195mm

Total for period - 416mm

1981-2010 mean - 200mm

 

Rain has been recorded everyday this month so far.

Total for Oct to Jan (to the 28th) - 620mm

1981-2010 mean for Oct to Jan - Around 390mm

 

Gavin P
28 January 2014 17:55:51

Even this, the wettest winter on record, had a pretty good cold and snowy snap during the last week of January...


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

KevBrads1
28 January 2014 18:11:45

Even this, the wettest winter on record, had a pretty good cold and snowy snap during the last week of January...UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

8 inches of snow at Liphook, layed until the end of the month.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Ally Pally Snowman
02 February 2014 10:35:00

We must be doing well this winter. I.e well on the way to one of the wettest winters on record.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

423.0 1914-15

420.9 1989-90

418.3 1876-77

415.6 1994-95

388.3 1993-94

380.6 1868-69

374.3 1959-60

373.5 1915-16

363.0 1965-66

362.0 1936-37

340.0 1976-77

337.2 1911-12

335.2 1978-79

332.6 1922-23

331.9 2000-01

331.7 1882-83

330.6 1883-84

330.4 1924-25

330.2 1929-30

329.4 1909-10

328.3 1934-35

327.8 2006-07

326.5 1979-80

323.9 1918-19

322.9 1899-00

320.1 1927-28

319.6 1790-91

318.9 1938-39

317.5 1983-84

316.5 2012-13

314.8 1827-28

313.0 1803-04

309.9 1960-61

309.2 1773-74

308.4 1947-48

306.7 1847-48

298.7 1872-73

298.0 1919-20

296.7 1977-78

295.0 1973-74

293.4 1987-88

293.2 1925-26

292.7 1957-58

292.2 1942-43

290.0 1935-36

289.8 1896-97

287.6 1969-70

286.9 1898-99

286.7 1871-72

284.5 1950-51

283.9 1999-2000

283.6 1903-04

283. Up to 26th January

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Looks like we could beat this in the first 10 days of feb!


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
02 February 2014 11:12:04

This is well worth keeping tabs on - looks very much like we're heading for a new record for the winter.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



02 February 2014 11:17:09

Well subject to final quality control on the January figures the total rainfall for the first two months of the 2013/14 winter now stands at 316.6mm. This puts us at exactly the same figure as for the whole of the 2012/13 winter which itself was very wet.

We now stand in 30th place on the all time list of wettest winters per Kev's post above and we still have a full month to go.

KevBrads1
02 February 2014 11:23:32

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

423.0 1914-15

420.9 1989-90

418.3 1876-77

415.6 1994-95

388.3 1993-94

380.6 1868-69

374.3 1959-60

373.5 1915-16

363.0 1965-66

362.0 1936-37

340.0 1976-77

337.2 1911-12

335.2 1978-79

332.6 1922-23

331.9 2000-01

331.7 1882-83

330.6 1883-84

330.4 1924-25

330.2 1929-30

329.4 1909-10

328.3 1934-35

327.8 2006-07

326.5 1979-80

323.9 1918-19

322.9 1899-00

320.1 1927-28

319.6 1790-91

318.9 1938-39

317.5 1983-84

316.6. 2013-14


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

marting
02 February 2014 11:32:04
Thanks Kevin, not very far to get up this chart with the rest of the month ahead.

Martin


Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

nouska
02 February 2014 12:17:32
The Met Office are laying the blame for our dreadful winter on the wQBO phase - other sources claim that the QBO combined with solar max is the culprit. Using the Berlin data, I've looked at solar and QBO phase for Kevin's list of the wettest winters; very random and as Roger has pointed out elsewhere no pattern is discernible between states.

423.0 1914-15

420.9 1989-90 S max eQBO

418.3 1876-77

415.6 1994-95 S min e/w QBO

388.3 1993-94 S min eQBO

380.6 1868-69

374.3 1959-60 S max wQBO

373.5 1915-16

363.0 1965-66 S min eQBO

362.0 1936-37

340.0 1976-77 S min eQBO

337.2 1911-12

335.2 1978-79 S max wQBO

332.6 1922-23

331.9 2000-01 S max w/e QBO

331.7 1882-83

330.6 1883-84

330.4 1924-25

330.2 1929-30

329.4 1909-10

328.3 1934-35

327.8 2006-07 S min wQBO

326.5 1979-80 S max eQBO

323.9 1918-19

322.9 1899-00

320.1 1927-28

319.6 1790-91

318.9 1938-39

317.5 1983-84 mid cycle w/e QBO

316.6. 2013-14 S max wQBO

Obviously a lot of years with no data available but the ones we do have show such variety that it is hard to see an explanation for this horror show of relentless rain.

Gavin P
02 February 2014 13:44:50

^^^

I thought the Gods were punishing us.

 


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

KevBrads1
02 February 2014 13:48:35
Up to 11th December, only about 6mm was recorded, so 98% of that total had fallen in about the last 7 weeks.
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Hungry Tiger
02 February 2014 14:04:03

Up to 11th December, only about 6mm was recorded, so 98% of that total had fallen in about the last 7 weeks.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

That makes it even more amazing.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Hungry Tiger
02 February 2014 14:10:43

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales 423.0 1914-15 420.9 1989-90 418.3 1876-77 415.6 1994-95 388.3 1993-94 380.6 1868-69 374.3 1959-60 373.5 1915-16 363.0 1965-66 362.0 1936-37 340.0 1976-77 337.2 1911-12 335.2 1978-79 332.6 1922-23 331.9 2000-01 331.7 1882-83 330.6 1883-84 330.4 1924-25 330.2 1929-30 329.4 1909-10 328.3 1934-35 327.8 2006-07 326.5 1979-80 323.9 1918-19 322.9 1899-00 320.1 1927-28 319.6 1790-91 318.9 1938-39 317.5 1983-84 316.6. 2013-14

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Cheers Kevin and great stuff there with those figures. I don't think it will take long to get over 400 mm with the likes of the synoptic charts on the cards at the moment.

Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if we hit the record in the next 10 days.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



moabutah
02 February 2014 17:32:26
Imagine being a soldier in a Flanders trench in 14/15 and 15/16
moabutah
02 February 2014 17:34:08
Imagine being a soldier in a Flanders trench in 14/15 and 15/16
KevBrads1
03 February 2014 06:16:00
Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

423.0 1914-15

420.9 1989-90

418.3 1876-77

415.6 1994-95

388.3 1993-94

380.6 1868-69

374.3 1959-60

373.5 1915-16

363.0 1965-66

362.0 1936-37

340.0 1976-77

337.2 1911-12

335.2 1978-79

332.6 1922-23

331.9 2000-01

331.7 1882-83

330.6 1883-84

330.4 1924-25

330.2 1929-30

329.4 1909-10

328.3 1934-35

327.8 2006-07

326.5 1979-80

323.9 1918-19

322.9 1899-00

320.1 1927-28

319.6 1790-91

319.6 2013-14 up to 1st Feb


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

nsrobins
03 February 2014 10:19:33

Those I assume are E+W rainfalls Kevin.
If so, we only need to collect 100mm or so to be knocking on the door of the all time record.

I would guess that it very likely given the charts for the next few weeks.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Hungry Tiger
03 February 2014 10:28:36

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales
423.0 1914-15
420.9 1989-90
418.3 1876-77
415.6 1994-95
388.3 1993-94
380.6 1868-69
374.3 1959-60
373.5 1915-16
363.0 1965-66
362.0 1936-37
340.0 1976-77
337.2 1911-12
335.2 1978-79
332.6 1922-23
331.9 2000-01
331.7 1882-83
330.6 1883-84
330.4 1924-25
330.2 1929-30
329.4 1909-10
328.3 1934-35
327.8 2006-07
326.5 1979-80
323.9 1918-19
322.9 1899-00
320.1 1927-28
319.6 1790-91
319.6 2013-14 up to 1st Feb

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

105mm is all we need - and we have close on 4 weeks to get it as well.


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



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