Pleased with thar forecast but I wish I had been wrong and I certainly didn't expect it to be so crap! Very mild yes but not so bloody wet.

Andy

I hope people don't mind. I'm going to repaste my 'year' forecast that I did for the new year so it can be critizised appropiately. I'm keen to see how accurate it turns out to be:

"I do a personal yearly forecast every year (at least I have for the last 5 years). I've never published before though, thought I might here anyway see if it holds up.

2014

January

Milder than average especially at first and very unsettled, a chance of cold snowy periods later.

CET above normal

February

Potentially coldest month of the winter, some snow showers likely in S and E. Unlikely to be overly cold or prolonged though.

CET below normal

March

Settled, dry, rather chilly. Some late frosts and even wintry showers. Sunshine prevalent

CET below normal

April

Showery. Slightly below average temperatures. Some settled spells

CET slightly below average

May

 Extremely dry and sunny. Chilly winds at first, although very warm weather possible later. Perhaps an early heatwave.

CET around average

June

Very dry theme continuing. Some rather cool sea breezes making temps chilly at times. Somewhat below average temperatures.

CET slightly below average

July

Another dry month especially in the east. However it will be warmer than june with a few thundery outbreaks possible

CET above average

August

The dry run ends with august. Changeable, sometimes very wet or showery but still often mild.

CET slightly above average

September

Dry, rather warm and perhaps thundery. 'Indian summer'.

CET much above average

October

Probably a little drier than average

CET around average

November

Drier than average theme perhaps continuing. Average temps, becoming chilly.

CET slightly below average

December

Changable. Mix of short cold wintry spells and warmer mild spells.

CET around average.

I put quite a lot of work into these every year (despite them looking so short). Although only people I know have got to see them before. Its based on a bit of pattern matching and long range models mostly. I don't expect it to be that accurate; mostly just for fun. "

I think January turned out okay, it was mild and unsettled and it was mildest at the start of the month; the CET fell throughout. I don't think the last statement was justified though, there were no cold or snowy periods to speak of; although most transient snowfall did occur during the last part of january. Most of it was restricted to higher ground though. And CET was above average. 

Probably going to be out with my february forecast though :S it may well be the coldest month of the winter, though that in itself is hardly an achivement. 

Looks good Q.

The only thing I would criticise would be the use of "Inidian Summer" for September, when it's much more apporpriate in October

And to add to that , why the hell didnt you see all this rain coming ......................fool

I said very unsettled what more do you want 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020606/run1m2/cfsnh-0-444.png?06

At least CFS hints at something wintry

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020606/run1m2/cfsnh-2-444.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-624.png?18

Again CFS hints at a chilly March

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-744.png?18

Most welcome

Disagree

Low pressure aligned to the south - not great for here

These charts will flip flop around more than a filanderers appendage.

Come on Dave , you would be happy with several inches of the white stuff

Yea right CFS about as useful as a chocolate teapot , this said model was havin a bubble when suggesting this winter was going to very cold some months ago now.  

It does seem that some Pacific troughing will make a move for California in the near future, all starting with an 'atmospheric river' (as they call it) this weekend that brings a string of warm and moist air from the tropics. This ties in with signs of the longwave ridge/trough shifting a little, although progress looks very slow. At least it will slightly reduce the severity of the drought over there.

The 12z GFS op gets a little further than previous runs pre-192 hours, and it turns out to be just far enough to change the downstream pattern i.e. what affects the UK from day 8.

That NE Pacific/western-U.S. ridge has been incredibly persistent this winter - but if I'm remembering things correctly, it seems to have shifted east overall during the past month... just not very far!

Stormchaser is the persistence of this  NE pacific/W estern USA ridge the key to the arrctic outbraks  and then knocking on to our stormy winter?

This was originally posted on the model output thread.However I've copied it here because Stormchaser has I think ,come up with the key atmospheric circulation anomaly that  has driven this remarkable but unwelcome winter.

The persistence of the west coast ridge and the draw down of polar airmass on the eastern flank is the cause of the cold conditions over the central and eastern parts of the US. What is the cause of ridging and the anomalous (to -PDO cycle) warmth in the NE Pacific?

Reanalysis shows a very unusual and extreme 500mb anomaly for this winter.

It would be typical if winter shows up back end of Feb and into March.

Thanks Nouska as you say the next question is what led to the persistence of the ridge!

I bet there are a few on here hoping for a late wintry spell

I wouldn't say no to a late spell of [snow] , would always welcome [snow] with open arms 😄

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020718/run4/cfsnh-0-6504.png?18

Bonfire night is looking dry at least

Going back to the cause of the winter storminessthe persistence of the NW Pacific ridge seems likely casue.The factor driving this was mentiined on last nights ONE show last night as strong positive SST anomalies in the  NW Pacific off Japan.

Any thoughts?

latest SST anomalies

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomp.2.10.2014.gif

Pure guesswork it was.

And whilst we wait for this pitiful cesspit of a winter to finally crawl it's way into oblivion, I recommend a read of the first 10 pages or so of this thread.

It is proof if ever it was needed that despite the analysis and theories and detail and debate, Mother Nature will without fail fart in our faces and mug the best of us.

LOL

That was wishful thinking

And it seemed it was that easy, westerlies all the way