The Weather Outlook

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Stormchaser
21 September 2013 20:11:06

You know, it's a big shame that so many long range models only have three-month intervals available to the public. 1-month intervals are far more useful, allowing interpreters to gauge how a season is likely to evolve i.e. front-heavy on cold or a slow burner... but, presuming such output exists, I'm guessing it's all behind paywalls.

CFS is a much appreciated exception - thank you America, land of free data access

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Gavin P
22 September 2013 09:10:06

Hi all,

Here's the first Winter 13-14 seasonal model round-up video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Haven't got all that many this month, but what we have got seem's to be pointing to a cold winter - Though the CFS may be backing off at the moment to be honest.

 

 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gooner
22 September 2013 12:07:57

Hi all,

Here's the first Winter 13-14 seasonal model round-up video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Haven't got all that many this month, but what we have got seem's to be pointing to a cold winter - Though the CFS may be backing off at the moment to be honest.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Cheers Gav

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
22 September 2013 21:26:55

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-2934.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

CFS still keen on a v cold period in January.

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



doctormog
23 September 2013 08:24:39
The link may not be a direct one but the early snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is currently very impressive

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif 

http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png 

Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

nsrobins
23 September 2013 09:08:37
http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png  Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

At a guess, predicted 2mT anomolies for DJF:
E coast of Scotland +1.8C; SE England -3.4C

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

doctormog
23 September 2013 09:11:53
http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png  Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

At a guess, predicted 2mT anomolies for DJF:

E coast of Scotland +1.8C; SE England -3.4C

UserPostedImage

Hah, you won't be laughing when the North Sea freezes over and the wolves and polar bears sweep down from Aberdeen to Denmead and eat you. 😝 [sn_bsmil]

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

nsrobins
23 September 2013 09:29:14
http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png  Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

At a guess, predicted 2mT anomolies for DJF: E coast of Scotland +1.8C; SE England -3.4C UserPostedImage

Hah, you won't be laughing when the North Sea freezes over and the wolves and polar bears sweep down from Aberdeen to Denmead and eat you. 😝 [sn_bsmil]

Well the wolves won't be a problem with Retron the Wolf-Whisperer acting as a shield.
The polar bears also not an issue. They prey on individuals with impaired cognitive responses so they'll have plenty to keep them occupied in Newcastle.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

doctormog
23 September 2013 09:55:04
http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png  Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

At a guess, predicted 2mT anomolies for DJF: E coast of Scotland +1.8C; SE England -3.4C UserPostedImage

Hah, you won't be laughing when the North Sea freezes over and the wolves and polar bears sweep down from Aberdeen to Denmead and eat you. 😝 [sn_bsmil]

Well the wolves won't be a problem with Retron the Wolf-Whisperer acting as a shield.

The polar bears also not an issue. They prey onindividualswith impaired cognitive responses so they'll have plenty to keep them occupied in Newcastle.

UserPostedImageUserPostedImage

😂

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Gooner
23 September 2013 11:53:43

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-2874.png

JFF JFF JFF

CFS consistent with its timing for a January cold snap

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



ManUtdMatt1986
23 September 2013 12:07:58

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-2874.png

JFF JFF JFF

CFS consistent with its timing for a January cold snap

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I think the CFS has nailed this one

Gooner
23 September 2013 12:17:21

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-2874.png

JFF JFF JFF

CFS consistent with its timing for a January cold snap

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

I think the CFS has nailed this one

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

lol

I'd rather a snowy cold festive period

 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
23 September 2013 16:09:50

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2322.png?12

JFF JFF JFF

CFS keen on a bitter spell just after Santa's visit

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Snowfan
23 September 2013 16:31:32

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2322.png?12

JFF JFF JFF

CFS keen on a bitter spell just after Santa's visit

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

 

What's it currently showing for Christmas Eve/ Christmas Day itself?

And early December...?

"Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow! "

[/size]

Gooner
23 September 2013 16:37:23

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2322.png?12

JFF JFF JFF

CFS keen on a bitter spell just after Santa's visit

Originally Posted by: Snowfan 

 

 

What's it currently showing for Christmas Eve/ Christmas Day itself?

And early December...?

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Have to say , not 'that' much, finding v cold outbreaks ( prolonged ) isn't that easy

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2256.png?12

12PM on the Big Day

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2280.png?12

Boxing Day

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
23 September 2013 21:26:17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-2244.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

Xmas morning sees us in a chilly airmass from CFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-2502.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

Followed by a bomb early in the New Year

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Stormchaser
24 September 2013 11:32:45

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

nsrobins
24 September 2013 11:58:37

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

The entertaining maverick Joe ******i now works for WeatherBell, a subscription weather commerce group.
You can however follow his blog.
Also this is a link to an article on notrickszone with references to various long-range thoughts for the Euro winter season.
http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/
Disclaimer - I have no affiliation whatsoever to the views or otherwise on the above site LOL, but I love the comments about CFS

 

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gavin P
24 September 2013 13:02:07

Just FYI information, Joe B DOES still do a "Saturday Summary" that is free to view;

http://www.weatherbell.com

I think it was during the Saturday Summary that he first made his comments about Europe's upcoming "nasty" winter.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

some faraway beach
24 September 2013 17:16:36

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

A while back I was glancing down a list of past hurricanes which made US landfall, and was interested by how the weak and/or late US hurricane seasons during negative phases of the PDO often coincided with subsequently epic UK winters.

E.g. 1939 a single Category 1 in August; 1946 a single Category 1 in October; 1962 none; 2010 none.

Of course there are years where it doesn't work, but it's a little boost to keep our hopes up for thie winter.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Gooner
24 September 2013 19:00:56

Been loking at he CFS runs as they come out and it really is struggling ot produce anything wintry for a decent period through the months of DJF

JFF JFF JFF JFF

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



White Meadows
24 September 2013 19:55:46

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

The entertaining maverick Joe ******i now works for WeatherBell, a subscription weather commerce group.
You can however follow his blog.
Also this is a link to an article on notrickszone with references to various long-range thoughts for the Euro winter season.
http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/
Disclaimer - I have no affiliation whatsoever to the views or otherwise on the above site LOL, but I love the comments about CFS

 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I like the comment "Again we have reiterate that these forecasts are truly speculative, and all the meteorologist point this out. So there really is no need to get pissy about it."

We hear the wild variations of ******i's thoughts this time every year. It's a lot of fun to read but you can't take it very seriously.

Solar Cycles
24 September 2013 20:07:06

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Should that not be 78/79 as the previous winter wasn't anything special from what I remember?

Dingle Rob
24 September 2013 20:23:45

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Should that not be 78/79 as the previous winter wasn't anything special from what I remember?

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 

It was down in these parts!

From Netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess= 

1977-78: Mid January, 6 foot drifts! A week later, and 4 inches fell. Mid February saw 4 inches also. Late January, heavy snow in Scotland, drifting, 28 inches falling in parts! Mid February (see above) was very snowy in the North East, East and South West. February 11th had 1 ft in Durham and Edinburgh. Feb. 15-16th South West England, blizzard with huge drifts, sounds like my cup of tea! 

1978-79: The last really severe, snowy winter, for now anyway, and one my parents go on about! Late December falls of 6-7n inches in Southern Scotland and the North East started it off. It was very cold in parts. Mid February saw drifts of 6-7 feet on the East coast of England. Mid March had severe blizzards and drifting, in North Eastern England drifts reached a staggering 15 feet! Very snowy. 

Rob

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