I admire you guys giving Winter forecasts and views when it's still so far away, I couldn't even see the potential to hit 23/25*c again this weekend coming 7days ago

Actually that ties in nicely with Gavs video on possible surface pressure patterns for Dec and Jan, with a high on the US Pacific Coast and a corresponding trough across the NE US and again a high mid/high Atlantic.
I suspect ENSO neutral, should it continue, will be quite influencial on the N Hemsiphere SST anomolies and subsequent surface pressure patterns this year.
All we need now is for the lowest solar 'maximum' in history to continue and we could be in business.

I'll get me coat and gloves and skis . . .

I've done a post on my page regarding the latest update of the JAMSTEC model - https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=236147473205907&set=a.136967756457213.31253.136117933208862&type=1&theater

Its showing a well below average winter in terms of temperatures for the UK. Then again, when doesn't it?

Anyone who is aware of the epic slow-moving frontal snow events that have occured across Britain in the past will be left wanting for countless years... but in theory it should eventually happen.

What I'm talking about is an event like the blizzard of '78, in which the frontal system is not a feeble affair or half-rain or some other failing like that - instead the energy piles in from the west, slams into a deep cold airmass across the UK, and just keeps on giving for hours on end. In fact, multiple events occured in sucession that year, as several low pressure systems became stuck against the massive block of cold continental air.

That's the sort of thing that leads to people complaining even just a few years after a month like December 2012 - sure, that was amazingly cold, record breakingly so in places, but the snow amounts, while noteworthy, were still far short of what can potentially be witnessed in the UK.

It's a funny game really, as such events are very disruptive and do far more harm than good - but as an extreme weather enthusiast it's all about recognising that if an event happens, it does so regardless of what you think about it, so you might as well enjoy what aspects of it you can

Good point. I remember last winter the  models were suggesting an event that could rival 1978, with 60cm of snow. It didn't quite come off although parts of Wales did get buried. I think it was Jan 17th - a red warning was issued and there were some pretty impressive photos around.

Then in March there was the possibility of another Channel Low dumping but it veered south and hit the Channel Islands.

Then of course there's this one which has to be my favourite UK snow pic of recent years!

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=400985283332904&set=a.400984773332955.1073741825.318714848226615&type=3&src=http%3A%2F%2Fsphotos-c.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-ak-ash3%2F892438_400985283332904_1743286278_o.jpg&smallsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fsphotos-c.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-ak-ash3%2F168508_400985283332904_1743286278_n.jpg&size=1024%2C683

That pic is awesome Rob, I can see why you like it so much!

If only it could have been that epic down here

Looking at the output to day 10 from GFS and ECM, it looks like the colder than usual Arctic temps are spreading out to the lower latitudes. During the next 5 days or so, it's the American side that sees a lot of cold air spreading unusually far south for the time of year. Days 6-10, it's Asia that gets in on the act. The cold is so extensive that it has some effect across Scandinavia too.

The establishment of early snowcover and cold pooling looks to sprint out of the starting blocks this year. IF that was to combine with the NE Pacific ridge/east U.S. trough/mid-Atlantic ridge/UK trough/Scandinavia-Siberia ridge pattern... well, I'd be buying more than just a new shovel!

That pic is awesome Rob, I can see why you like it so much!

If only it could have been that epic down here

Looking at the output to day 10 from GFS and ECM, it looks like the colder than usual Arctic temps are spreading out to the lower latitudes. During the next 5 days or so, it's the American side that sees a lot of cold air spreading unusually far south for the time of year. Days 6-10, it's Asia that gets in on the act. The cold is so extensive that it has some effect across Scandinavia too.

The establishment of early snowcover and cold pooling looks to sprint out of the starting blocks this year. IF that was to combine with the NE Pacific ridge/east U.S. trough/mid-Atlantic ridge/UK trough/Scandinavia-Siberia ridge pattern... well, I'd be buying more than just a new shovel!

Anyone who is aware of the epic slow-moving frontal snow events that have occured across Britain in the past will be left wanting for countless years... but in theory it should eventually happen.

What I'm talking about is an event like the blizzard of '78, in which the frontal system is not a feeble affair or half-rain or some other failing like that - instead the energy piles in from the west, slams into a deep cold airmass across the UK, and just keeps on giving for hours on end. In fact, multiple events occured in sucession that year, as several low pressure systems became stuck against the massive block of cold continental air.

That's the sort of thing that leads to people complaining even just a few years after a month like December 2012 - sure, that was amazingly cold, record breakingly so in places, but the snow amounts, while noteworthy, were still far short of what can potentially be witnessed in the UK.

It's a funny game really, as such events are very disruptive and do far more harm than good - but as an extreme weather enthusiast it's all about recognising that if an event happens, it does so regardless of what you think about it, so you might as well enjoy what aspects of it you can

Good point. I remember last winter the  models were suggesting an event that could rival 1978, with 60cm of snow. It didn't quite come off although parts of Wales did get buried. I think it was Jan 17th - a red warning was issued and there were some pretty impressive photos around.

 

Then in March there was the possibility of another Channel Low dumping but it veered south and hit the Channel Islands.

 

Then of course there's this one which has to be my favourite UK snow pic of recent years!

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=400985283332904&set=a.400984773332955.1073741825.318714848226615&type=3&src=http%3A%2F%2Fsphotos-c.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-ak-ash3%2F892438_400985283332904_1743286278_o.jpg&smallsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fsphotos-c.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-ak-ash3%2F168508_400985283332904_1743286278_n.jpg&size=1024%2C683

A 1978-type event did happen in recent years, sort of. I think it was February 5-6 2009, a channel low creeping into the westcountry. We had around 45cm of snow here, with monstrous drifts. I have some photos of this snowfall somewhere, one day will maybe post them on here. Though, this pales into mediocrity when compared to 78, when I believe 90cm was recorded in Somerset.

Having said that, from what I've read the 1978 snowfall is perhaps as heavy as it gets for a single snowfall in the UK, the weather setup seems to have been perfectly balanced, I wouldn't be suprised if it was the heaviest single snowfall of the 20th century in the UK. Though I think there have been falls of say 60-80cm, (1982?) which is obviously considerable.

Anyone who is aware of the epic slow-moving frontal snow events that have occured across Britain in the past will be left wanting for countless years... but in theory it should eventually happen.

What I'm talking about is an event like the blizzard of '78, in which the frontal system is not a feeble affair or half-rain or some other failing like that - instead the energy piles in from the west, slams into a deep cold airmass across the UK, and just keeps on giving for hours on end. In fact, multiple events occured in sucession that year, as several low pressure systems became stuck against the massive block of cold continental air.

That's the sort of thing that leads to people complaining even just a few years after a month like December 2012 - sure, that was amazingly cold, record breakingly so in places, but the snow amounts, while noteworthy, were still far short of what can potentially be witnessed in the UK.

It's a funny game really, as such events are very disruptive and do far more harm than good - but as an extreme weather enthusiast it's all about recognising that if an event happens, it does so regardless of what you think about it, so you might as well enjoy what aspects of it you can

Good point. I remember last winter the  models were suggesting an event that could rival 1978, with 60cm of snow. It didn't quite come off although parts of Wales did get buried. I think it was Jan 17th - a red warning was issued and there were some pretty impressive photos around.

 

Then in March there was the possibility of another Channel Low dumping but it veered south and hit the Channel Islands.

 

Then of course there's this one which has to be my favourite UK snow pic of recent years!

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=400985283332904&set=a.400984773332955.1073741825.318714848226615&type=3&src=http%3A%2F%2Fsphotos-c.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-ak-ash3%2F892438_400985283332904_1743286278_o.jpg&smallsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fsphotos-c.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-ak-ash3%2F168508_400985283332904_1743286278_n.jpg&size=1024%2C683

I remember that well. All leave was cancelled with the council in plymouth david braine suggested the world would end. The MO had red warnings over devon and cornwall then it all went south. A mugs game predicting snow and winter in general. Buts thats why we love it, because you never know what will happen

http://i.imgur.com/2pSmIt3.gif  Main menu. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/

Ah, a new model to go at!

How do you get to the charts from the main menu?

http://i.imgur.com/2pSmIt3.gif  Main menu. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/

Ah, a new model to go at!

How do you get to the charts from the main menu?

Well Gavin, it looks like you're theory regarding the SSTs in the NE Pacific has a lot going for it, although the above mdoel positions the Pacific Ridge more towards the centre of the Ocean. It still looks to correlate with positive height anomalies from Greenland across to Scandinavia, though

http://i.imgur.com/2pSmIt3.gif  Main menu. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/

Ah, a new model to go at!

How do you get to the charts from the main menu?

From the main menu sidebar options choose SST CA, next page has all the runs from last few years - pick your option then on next page choose Real Time Z500,T2m,Prate,SST from diagnostics section.

http://i.imgur.com/2pSmIt3.gif  Main menu. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/

Ah, a new model to go at!

How do you get to the charts from the main menu?

From the main menu sidebar options choose SST CA, next page has all the runs from last few years - pick your option then on next page choose Real Time Z500,T2m,Prate,SST from diagnostics section.

Excellent

Thanks for that

http://i.imgur.com/2pSmIt3.gif  Main menu. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/

Ah, a new model to go at!

How do you get to the charts from the main menu?

From the main menu sidebar options choose SST CA, next page has all the runs from last few years - pick your option then on next page choose Real Time Z500,T2m,Prate,SST from diagnostics section.

Thanks Nouska

Huug Van den Dool will be appearing on GWV this weekend!

SC, thanks. Early days yet, though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK5YnO-L0EA 

Simon Kieling - cold. 

I've just been analysing the various models in detail, and it seems that while JMA and BBC have headed much colder in their signals, the Met Office ensemble model has actually backed off somewhat, while CFS is exploring an array of options at the moment.

That Met Office ensemble update shows lower than normal heights in the high-Arctic, which indicates a tendency for the PV to dominate up there. The positive heights near to the UK are not far from mid-latitude really. The Dec-Feb chart shows blockig being most likely to our NE, with a good chance of some cold continental imports, but a low chance of those impressive exports of cold air from close to the Pole that we look to for delivering the most epic cold spells.

JMA and BCC are covered nicely by Simon Keeling in the vid. linked by Four (thanks for that). The latter has changed it's tune completely from the previous update IIRC.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1/cfsnh-0-2748.png?00

This is the latest link I can find for CFS ( is it always late?)

A Cold blow in January but certainly not the widespread prolonged wintry spell most would like to see

I've just been analysing the various models in detail, and it seems that while JMA and BBC have headed much colder in their signals, the Met Office ensemble model has actually backed off somewhat, while CFS is exploring an array of options at the moment.

That Met Office ensemble update shows lower than normal heights in the high-Arctic, which indicates a tendency for the PV to dominate up there. The positive heights near to the UK are not far from mid-latitude really. The Dec-Feb chart shows blockig being most likely to our NE, with a good chance of some cold continental imports, but a low chance of those impressive exports of cold air from close to the Pole that we look to for delivering the most epic cold spells.

JMA and BCC are covered nicely by Simon Keeling in the vid. linked by Four (thanks for that). The latter has changed it's tune completely from the previous update IIRC.

But.....when you look at the geopotential heights advertised by the Glosea4, the jet looks well south to me. I don't think the update is a bad one at all TBH. The lack of cold advertised is just due to the model playing around with trough placement- which it's unlikely to nail at this timeframe.

JMA and BCC are covered nicely by Simon Keeling in the vid. linked by Four (thanks for that). The latter has changed it's tune completely from the previous update IIRC.

Have you seen the September update from the BCC SC? I've been waiting for it, but from what I can see BCC haven't updated their charts from August yet? (seems to be a problem on the BCC website I think?)

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

S

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S