The Weather Outlook

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patricia
17 October 2011 21:58:40

 

I,m going to Scotland at the end of January, do you think there will be snow there

Gavin P
17 October 2011 22:17:20

Right then, the Beijing model has updated for October. Check these pressure anomalies out for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L2.GIF

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L3.GIF

Looks like a negative NAO/cold winter set up to me.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

DTHFCJ
17 October 2011 22:33:46

Right then, the Beijing model has updated for October. Check these pressure anomalies out for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L2.GIF

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L3.GIF

Looks like a negative NAO/cold winter set up to me.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Evening Gavin,correct me if im wrong but im sure i read a post of yours a few months back regarding the Beijing model regarding the summer we just had and it proved to be pretty correct on what it was signaling?

Gavin P
17 October 2011 22:42:20

Right then, the Beijing model has updated for October. Check these pressure anomalies out for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L2.GIF

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L3.GIF

Looks like a negative NAO/cold winter set up to me.

Originally Posted by: DTHFCJ 

Evening Gavin,correct me if im wrong but im sure i read a post of yours a few months back regarding the Beijing model regarding the summer we just had and it proved to be pretty correct on what it was signaling?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I can't really remember, but personally I prefer the Asian models (Beijing and JAMSTEC) to the CFS and ECM.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

DTHFCJ
17 October 2011 22:44:55

Right then, the Beijing model has updated for October. Check these pressure anomalies out for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L2.GIF

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L3.GIF

Looks like a negative NAO/cold winter set up to me.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Evening Gavin,correct me if im wrong but im sure i read a post of yours a few months back regarding the Beijing model regarding the summer we just had and it proved to be pretty correct on what it was signaling?

Originally Posted by: DTHFCJ 

I can't really remember, but personally I prefer the Asian models (Beijing and JAMSTEC) to the CFS and ECM.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 no worries

if i wernt married id go for the Asian models too

The Beast from the East
17 October 2011 22:46:14

but personally I prefer the Asian models

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 

Me too

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Steam Fog
18 October 2011 07:04:22

Beijing Climate Centre updates those seasonal charts once a month I think. Certainly quite a shift from the charts before. 

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
18 October 2011 08:12:08

I hope no one minds me quoting the following from WUWT - but Joe ******i has posted a comment in relation to the NCEP model and its current la nina prediction - basically saying it's over the top. Perhaps from a UK stand point the most interesting thing is that many of the models are showing a big decline in atlantic SSTs over the winter months. I believe (happy to be proven wrong though - as this is based on my memory of data which could be wrong) that normally when the AMO drops through a winter, W Europe is normally cold.

Scroll down in the comments and look for Joe ******i's comment:  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/17/ncep-ensemble-forecast-shows-deep-la-nina-coming/#comments

please don't turn this into a climate change thread though as that's for the other forum.

"As someone, along with my partner Joe D Aleo, who said back in May this La Nina was not over as the cold PDO Ninas last 21 months, and it would be back, let me also say the NCEP enso forecast is a joke. It had a warm episode developing back in May and though not as bad as Nasa and Hansen, it is a lousy model and only reacts to current trends, much like the longer term climate models. You will find that the frontier research and euro models destroy it routinely.

That being said, the across the board forecast of a cooling amo is huge! I am on record as saying the objective global temp will drop to at least -.15C by march, though its highly doubtful the Enso 3.4 goes below -1.2… The bigger news is in the atlantic!!!! See global temp forecasts there against last year… its night and day.

The big fall is coming in the amo and also the global temps.. The modeling is certainly showing the tropical atlantic cooling in a much more rational fashion than its way overdone ( IMO) enso 3.4"

Reigate, home of the North Downs

SEMerc
18 October 2011 08:21:15

I hope no one minds me quoting the following from WUWT - but Joe ******i has posted a comment in relation to the NCEP model and its current la nina prediction - basically saying it's over the top. Perhaps from a UK stand point the most interesting thing is that many of the models are showing a big decline in atlantic SSTs over the winter months. I believe (happy to be proven wrong though - as this is based on my memory of data which could be wrong) that normally when the AMO drops through a winter, W Europe is normally cold.

Scroll down in the comments and look for Joe ******i's comment:  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/17/ncep-ensemble-forecast-shows-deep-la-nina-coming/#comments

please don't turn this into a climate change thread though as that's for the other forum.

"As someone, along with my partner Joe D Aleo, who said back in May this La Nina was not over as the cold PDO Ninas last 21 months, and it would be back, let me also say the NCEP enso forecast is a joke. It had a warm episode developing back in May and though not as bad as Nasa and Hansen, it is a lousy model and only reacts to current trends, much like the longer term climate models. You will find that the frontier research and euro models destroy it routinely.

That being said, the across the board forecast of a cooling amo is huge! I am on record as saying the objective global temp will drop to at least -.15C by march, though its highly doubtful the Enso 3.4 goes below -1.2… The bigger news is in the atlantic!!!! See global temp forecasts there against last year… its night and day.

The big fall is coming in the amo and also the global temps.. The modeling is certainly showing the tropical atlantic cooling in a much more rational fashion than its way overdone ( IMO) enso 3.4"

Originally Posted by: beng 

You left out the best bits of Uncle Joe's comments.

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 October 2011 08:32:19

Right then, the Beijing model has updated for October. Check these pressure anomalies out for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L2.GIF

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L3.GIF

Looks like a negative NAO/cold winter set up to me.

Originally Posted by: DTHFCJ 

Evening Gavin,correct me if im wrong but im sure i read a post of yours a few months back regarding the Beijing model regarding the summer we just had and it proved to be pretty correct on what it was signaling?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I'll take away the Chinese version of next winter -much more exciting than the Euro/Atalantic fare.

nouska
18 October 2011 11:18:31
I'm not sure we can derive much from the BCC at the moment, it too is swinging wildly from month to month. Below are the last three runs for 500 heights.

(updated once a month round the 20th)

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L4.GIF 

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L3.GIF 

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L2.GIF 

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLTEMPL2.GIF 

Gavin P
18 October 2011 11:43:37

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLTEMPL2.GIF 

Originally Posted by: nouska 

I think we can discount this, given we're already in a La Nina situation and it can only stregnthen between now and Christmas.

Something must have gone wrong with the model this month.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

nouska
18 October 2011 12:05:06

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLTEMPL2.GIF 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I think we can discount this, given we're already in a La Nina situation and it can only stregnthen between now and Christmas.

Something must have gone wrong with the model this month.

Originally Posted by: nouska 

You would certainly think so, given current conditions - but in saying that, all the Asian models have very low positive values for DJF. IRI should update soon as last one was 15/09 - maybe that will shed some light on why the various agencies are so divergent in their forecasts. Until there is a bit more consistency and we can actually see what materialises, all these forecasts are pie in the sky.

September table.    http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html 

rayjp
18 October 2011 12:09:00

So far I think one thing the forecasts have not shown, is an Atlantic driven winter for NW Europe.
This can only be good.
Nothing more depressing than week after week of wind and rain.

LeedsLad123
18 October 2011 12:16:58

So far I think one thing the forecasts have not shown, is an Atlantic driven winter for NW Europe.
This can only be good.
Nothing more depressing than week after week of wind and rain.

Originally Posted by: rayjp 

This is true.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
18 October 2011 12:22:19

Nothing more depressing than week after week of wind and rain.

Originally Posted by: rayjp 

Well, I'd say other people getting snow and you not is THE most depressing weather-related thing.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Solar Cycles
18 October 2011 13:00:10

I hope no one minds me quoting the following from WUWT - but Joe ******i has posted a comment in relation to the NCEP model and its current la nina prediction - basically saying it's over the top. Perhaps from a UK stand point the most interesting thing is that many of the models are showing a big decline in atlantic SSTs over the winter months. I believe (happy to be proven wrong though - as this is based on my memory of data which could be wrong) that normally when the AMO drops through a winter, W Europe is normally cold.

Scroll down in the comments and look for Joe ******i's comment:  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/17/ncep-ensemble-forecast-shows-deep-la-nina-coming/#comments

please don't turn this into a climate change thread though as that's for the other forum.

"As someone, along with my partner Joe D Aleo, who said back in May this La Nina was not over as the cold PDO Ninas last 21 months, and it would be back, let me also say the NCEP enso forecast is a joke. It had a warm episode developing back in May and though not as bad as Nasa and Hansen, it is a lousy model and only reacts to current trends, much like the longer term climate models. You will find that the frontier research and euro models destroy it routinely.

That being said, the across the board forecast of a cooling amo is huge! I am on record as saying the objective global temp will drop to at least -.15C by march, though its highly doubtful the Enso 3.4 goes below -1.2… The bigger news is in the atlantic!!!! See global temp forecasts there against last year… its night and day.

The big fall is coming in the amo and also the global temps.. The modeling is certainly showing the tropical atlantic cooling in a much more rational fashion than its way overdone ( IMO) enso 3.4"

Originally Posted by: beng 

A good point made by one poster is that the CFS output is raw data.

rayjp
18 October 2011 14:15:27

Nothing more depressing than week after week of wind and rain.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Well, I'd say other people getting snow and you not is THE most depressing weather-related thing.

Originally Posted by: rayjp 

TRue but living down here you get used to it always snowing up your way, lol..........

Gavin P
18 October 2011 15:29:20

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Saint Snow
18 October 2011 15:38:10

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

That adds up to me as:

December - some northern blocking, although not as pronounced as in the past couple of winters.

January - high pressure to our S or SE (depending on orientation) ridging over the southern UK, but mainly feeding not so cold air over us

February - active Atlantic, at times some 'cold zonality'

Sounds a bit like hedging one's bets to me

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

rayjp
18 October 2011 15:46:14

What about the lot that forcasted snow in Oct, lots of cold in Nov and mega cold dec, cold jan etc.
Have they backtracked yet.

Gavin P
18 October 2011 16:11:23

No. As yet James Madden has not backtracked on his ideas.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gavin D
18 October 2011 16:11:33

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 

The main thing for me is Occasional Wintry Weather, Often Dry in South and February – generally milder

Sounds good to me, so much for this severe winter than which some have predicted.

CAPE-steve
18 October 2011 16:14:58
...which still might happen of course
LeedsLad123
18 October 2011 16:24:20

Does this mean summer will arrive early, and summer itself will be a giant depressing season, again?

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

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