I also consider the 2008/9 winter to have been the worst (as in the least good) because we had next to no snow.

2009/10 was a cracker - snow lying on the ground on Xmas Day (albeit frozen), followed by a thaw, then a really heavy snowfall in early Jan and a return to real cold. The last bits of snow stayed around until nearly the end of Jan.

Saying that, I'd happily take another 2010/11 winter, just for the timing of the pre-Xmas snow 

http://sasesearch.brighton.ac.uk/view/?film=1032

Also from Brighton

http://www.mybrightonandhove.org.uk/page_id__9913_path__0p116p183p1018p.aspx

This went on for over 8 weeks. Nothing since has come anywhere close - sorry.

Aye, but that was before human activity brought the LIA to a premature end  

Unfortunately last winter it fell exactly 1 week too early - thus causing the maximum possible inconvenience and disruption to just about everyone, with many folk sick of it by the time Christmas arrived.

The previous year it arrived too late.

Maybe this year it'll be third time lucky?   

Would like it to at least wait until 23rd Dec so I can record 365 consecutive days without snowfall

Different strokes, and all that. I think the disruption is a big part of the fun of snow.

All depends on whether you get paid regardless of whether you can get to work and/or rely on others getting to you for your income   Obviously that applies most of the year, but for many businesses the week before christmas is one of the busiest/most important of the year.

Xmas Eve is perfect because no-one HAS to travel anywhere and most folk skive off work for 2 weeks anyway

Agreed, Saint.  Had to laugh in Dec last year when BBC said "you may need to scrape your car this morning".  In fact it was a struggle to FIND the car under 30cm of snow.

Last winter was colder than average, and brought the first sub zero CET month since Feb 1986.

Probably all change next run but latest GFS ensembles look quite interesting if you think cool and wet Novembers are more likely to precede a colder winter

IRRC of all the monthly autumnal patterns the cool wet November one has the strongest statistical bias to a colder than average winter?

Sorry I have to disagree with the bit about the far south Snow wolf I live two miles from the Channel coast and December delivered in spades being the coldest in the area since at least 1879 and the snowiest December on record here  snowier in terms of days with snow on the ground than even December 1962.

Agree with you there and I live in the opposite direction, Essex

Coldest I can remember, never have I had my heating fail because of the cold. The snow stayed on the ground for weeks past Xmas well. There was that much.

Always Happy to have more though

Not to mention great tobogganing weather, want to get as much of that in as possible before I get too old.

Indeed Brian,. Last winter as a whole could not be categorised as mild for anywhere in the UK surely?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/16/2011_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 

Northern tip of the Hebrides looks closest to average, though not mild? 

Yet February 2011 was the warmest and mildest since 1998.

Meanwhile the CFS charts are starting to favour colder than average winter for most of Europe:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Last week they biased towards milder, they are all over the place!! I do remember winter started in November last year following a period of very heavy rain and wind, in places like Mevagissey, St Austell etc in Cornwall had heavy rain end of Oct and in November with flooding then less than two weeks later (30th Nov) - They had snowfalling. Could this be the same this year? I.E Milder with heavy rain, flooding and wind, then in two weeks time colder weather with snow!? Time will tell.

I am by the Quay in Exeter now and looks like I will not be seeing much in thew way of snow! :-(

There are certain situations - very rare situations agreed - but ones which deliver big time for even coastal areas in the far south and southwest. I'm talking about the legendary classic Channel Low set-up.
Who knows, this could be the year.

But for most it was a winter of two very different halves.

Very few frosts here in 2011 compared with normal and no snow since the 22nd December 2010.   If we discount Dec, it was an exceptional winter.  But not for cold and snow.

As for the forthcoming winter, based on the current forecasts, synoptics, data etc. I have no idea!

Well if November and December is forecasted to be colder than average then watching the GFS model runs is something to keep and eye on. Within the next two weeks and hope by FI +384 we could see that blocking starting to develop over N. Eastern Europe/Scandi. What we do not want are Bartlett's - We want a Scandinavian high pressure system - hopefully we be seeing these develop in FI runs soon.

Some of the comments in the last page are total non-factual, and needless remarks. People need to stop their geographical location argument and personal experience of last year and look at the whole UK and what actually happened.

The main point of this thread is to surely identify factual information that will build an overview of forecasting the next season. A season that happens to be winter. What 'i had no snow last year, so the UK was mild' is all about i dont no.

Factually, the UK experienced its first sub zero CET for over 20 years. The CET is not an average temperature of your back garden. Yes for some im sure the whole winter was mild and damp but for a vast proportion it was exceptionally cold in the month of december, identified by a sub zero CET. In my back garden it was -26/-28 on a regular basis, but at 300asl, and surrounded my countryside, its not a valid temperature. Its an example of how cold locally things did get.

Fatually it was colder than average over the whole season. I agree jan and feb were very non-discript and frost free but still not mild enough to make the season overall mild.

And factually it was the 3rd successive colder than average winter. 2008/2009 was very blocked and recorded a high frost in comparison to what an average winter provides. 09/10 had some very heavy snowfall, which started in october to in some southern places (London). followed by a cold period late jan/early feb. then 2010/2011 had its first proglonged cold spell on a nationwide scale for 20+ years, as the whole month was cold dominated thanks to a big greeny high and northern blocking. Based in worcestershire i did have 5 weeks of snow cover, and thats pretty expectional for a southern county. Of course regional differences. But thats the longest snow cover ive seen in my life time. 

This october is not to dissimilar to last october, it has been milder. And looks at remaining mild into november. or at least the next 2 weeks id say. So i would think a cold november and december is less likely. The global conditions at the moment compared to last year arent quite the same. La Nina, solar activity. Common SW'ly.

The last month has been pretty typical weather set ups for this country, some exceptional warmth but not unusal synpotics.

I think the fact the cold and snow started so early,  at the end of November 2010 and  continued through to Christmas  (and beyond further North and East) made a big impact on our perception of it being cold overall. Also January although milder was a quiet month never too cold but not especially mild either,  February continued relatively quiet with no extremes but more spring-like towards the middle and end,  but the lack of extreme events made the second half of the winter far more forgettable than the first.

Alan

Romsey

Hampshire

thats a good overview of winter last year. the last 3 winters got progressively worse each year for depth of cold and scale of cold. At some point we will go back to less cold. And this winter will get less cold.

08/09, i personally experienced a lot of -2 / -3 night time values, and +3/+4, that year was a shock to many as it was a lot colder than the previous 15 winters or so. But actually it was more a normal winter.

then 09/10, the cold became for in-depth, i experienced more -5/-7 night time values, the occasional -9, and first time in my location ice days. a handful of ice days maybe.

then in 10/11 i had 15+ nights of -15, and a dozen days of -8/-10 maxs.

That trend wont continue, or else i will be expecting -30 this winter. On those previous ratios. So people, prepare to be disappointed, to more normal -2/-3 this year. Im going for average all the way. Our geographical position on earth wont allow us to get much lower than -15/-20 on a big scale.

Its worth a note, that last years temperatures, record breaking as well dont forget. Were not necessairly due to the synpotics of the weather. It showed you what snow cover can do and the cold become stagnant and prolonged rather than a constant cold source.

We may well get better synpotics than what last december presented the UK with, but for example, if the snow was not there last december, the UK would only of had a similar CET to those 2 previous decembers. It was all about the lying snow. It only snowed at my location twice in december, and then i had 3 weeks of completly no precipitation. That led to those unbelievable night time values.

Hello all, I am a 34yr old Mum of two and am in no way scientifically adept to really comment on here  - I have just always had an interest in the weather and get very excited when we're forecast/experience the kind of weather I love - and snow being one of them, hence my interest in this thread and my following of it in the hope that it will tell me what I want to hear, lol!!

If I could have my perfect weather year then we'd have a lovely cold n snowy winter followed by a warm spring, hot summer which then extends into a nice warm autumn before it's another lovely cold winter again!!  Dreamer!!

Like anything I take an interest in, I like to learn more about and altho, as I said, I haven't a clue about much of the scientific stuff behind all this, I'm always up for researching it - for example, a lot of the "codes" you talk about for the models etc - is there a post on here that explains them all and what they mean - or maybe someone could give a quick rundown?!

Following on from my non-scientific background - I've heard it said, and this does kinda make sense to me as I'm a strong believer in Mother Nature's Knowhow - that if there are a lot of berries on bushes this time of year then we're due a very cold winter and I've seen LOADS - so in my hopeful head that is another indicator that we're in for a lot of snow and Mother Nature has provided enough berries for her birds in the harshest periods !!!

So anyway, I'll keep reading all you clever peoples posts and will try to read up more about basics in weather forecasting - other than berries !!!

Any help or pointers to good learning sites etc much appreciated, thanks for listening to my babble!

H.

btw, I'm hoping for snow.

A very warm welcome to the forum - I hope you enjoy whatever winter throws at us but rest assured you'll see plenty of views and opinions on here, whatever way it goes

And hissy-fits, dummy-spitting, toys-throwing, foot-stamping....