It would meant my post would have been about a page long!

For the record I do agree that Mr Madden has milked the publicity (and indeed possibly sought it with sensational headlines), however I still think it is too early to dismiss November snow.

My apologies, Michael. 

Madden's forecasts do wind me up a little(!) and, as Nick says in the post just before this, the forecast is very Piers-esque. I have to admit having zero time for *****although I did quote from his forecast...(what am I like!!!). 

If these guys could at least admit some level of error or judgement in forecasting...but they just don't. It's a continual stream of the forecast happening somewhere else and at another time so...justification...and a measure of success.

Even if they're correct on this occasion there has to be a reasonable and sustained metric in place before anyone can claim the level of success these people have *already* claimed.

Joe

No apology needed Joe, my timing was unclear.

This time I am replying to your comments, and it is to say that I agree with every word!

The model output is showing a lot of blocking near to our east and potentially extending west with time. With this in mind, frigid easterlies seem more likely than bone-chilling northerlies during the middle part to latter half of November.

The potential for a major frontal snow event from the middle part of next month and into December is decent IMO.

Well indeed, just because someone quoted the MetOffice saying it will be warm for all Nov, does not mean they will be any righter ( quality english,lol...) than anyone else.

Seeing as its the end of Oct not Nov, as they say anything is possible in Nov.....

Have  to say "frigid easterlies" does not ecite me in Nov, only mid Dec onwards.

Incase you have forgotten, it was frigid easterly winds at the end of November last year that brought us all that snow and freezing temperatures and started off the big freeze, so we don't have to wait for mid Dec to put us in the freezer.

No, it turns out he was forecasting snow falling on some Munros in Scotland.  He just forgot to point that bit out.   What a plank

(it's generally accepted that when forecasting in the UK, unless you specifically state otherwise, that predictions refer to areas below 2,000ft and generally below 1,000ft where 99.9% of the people whom you are forecasting for live)

I think the last week of October and looking at the models for the 1st week of November (and beyond), we in Norway are looking at one of the mildest starts ever.

Presuming the models are on track and that we are looking at a warm High, snow levels will be substantially under normal and temperatures substantially over normal. Record night temperatures have already been set this month.

A promising 'start' to winter 2 weeks ago has gone very wrong and the next 2 weeks look like being more akin to September rather than November.

I'm pretty sure there will be snow on Cairngorm before the end of November.

I'm not sure I'll even see an air frost down here though (my record latest date for an air frost is 1st Dec 2009)

Mind, I also poo-pooed suggestions of an imminent major cold spell in Nov last year

We'll all be wondering what the fuss was about in a couple of weeks. The patterns are very slowly edging towards a cold set-up - the persistant blocking to the east is just a start.

Hi Mike, How are things? Hope all is well?

It certainly does look like a mild start, lets hope for a slow build up to some intense cold later in the year and early next year.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh dont mention 62/63 again, otherwise everyone will.

Mark Vogan has issued his winter forecast,

UK TO FACE 3RD STRAIGHT WINTER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY, CRIPPLING SNOW AND SEVERE COLD, WORST OF WINTER CONTINENTWIDE TO BE CENTRED OVER SCANDINAVIA

DECEMBER

PERIOD BETWEEN DECEMBER 15-20TH HERALDS THE ONSET OF INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND COLDER WEATHER FROM OFF THE CONTINENT

JANUARY

The tough later part of December will set the stage for what may be a severe first 10 to 15 days of January as a strong NEGATIVE NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation & AO (Arctic Oscillation) firmly establishes itself with deep troughs filled with increasingly bitter Arctic air centred from the UK eastwards to Germany.

FEBRUARY & MARCH

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html 

If only that persistent block will move to the west and force those Atlantic storms into Iberia, now that would be great.

WOW!

Then you listen to Alan Reppert of AccuWeather contradicts the above and then Net Weather talks about different blocking! What a difference that makes!?? - Nice forecast but no one has a scooby do init!? This is Alan Repperts forecast below:

 I

I would like Joe ******i's thoughts!!!? Anyone paid to access his forecast? Will the Met Office issue a winter forecast but not publish one!?

I don't recall many return cold blasts in Feb / Mar this year?

He must be refering to 2010 because I'm pretty sure I didn't even record a frost in Feb this year

Apperently there was snow in March,

Much of the month brought settled weather to the UK, though it was more unsettled during the period 7th to 15th in the north (with disruption caused by snowy conditions across many parts of Scotland), and again more widely over the last two or three days of the month. Rainfall amounts were notably low over large parts of England, with a number of stations totalling less than 5 mm for the whole month.

Though I don't recall any snow at all in March here in Darlington and I suspect it will be the same for many away from Scotland

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/march.html

Febuary

A ‘westerly’ weather type prevailed for most of the month, bringing plenty of cloud and bands of rain or showers at times. There were some strong winds in the first week, especially across northern areas. Temperatures were generally near or above normal throughout and there were few frosts.

The UK mean temperature for the month was about 2.0 °C above the 1971–2000 average, and it was particularly mild in central England. It was the mildest February since 2002 and the ninth mildest in the last 100 years.

A snow depth of 10 cm was recorded at Copley (County Durham) at 0900 on the 19th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/february.html

*****is predicting a very cld December with notable snwfalls at the beginning and mid mnth (80% probability, so he has been taking lessons frm the met office).

Anyway if you want to view the video suggest you skip to 23rd minute:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGVzZvX4J6U

Just copying this post from the Model Output thread, since it encapsulates what I am thinking regarding the forthcoming winter:

I think the key to our winter this year lies to the east. As you know, I spend two weeks a month in Copenhagen and the autumn thus far has been decidedly chilly there.

The UK has spent much time under mild southerlies or sou-westerlies, because of the location and orientation of the Euro HP - but the presence of that persistent HP to our east provides the hope of some eastern promise during the forthcoming winter.

Last winter was characterised in its early stages, by frigid northerly incursions - this winter, if we want cold, I think we will have to look east.