The Weather Outlook

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LeedsLad123
14 October 2011 14:35:52

Well we all know one thing, a warm/early spring is always followed by a cold, wet dull summerm, a win win for the coldies!

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 October 2011 16:21:37

October IOD model has updated (click the seasonal predictions link in the side bar)

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/

Still going for a cold and dry winter across much of Europe.

Other points of interests;

AMO goes increasingly negative over the next nine months. If this is right, by summer 2012 the Atlantic will be at its coldest since sometime in the early 90's.

La Nina is not forecast to go much beyond weak this winter.

Summer 2012 (a long way off, obviously) forecast cold and wet (probably because of the very cold Atlantic)

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Gavin, your an expert on SSt's.Given the cold Atlantic this winter what do you think will be the likely results for pressure distribution?.My simple mind goes cold sea=HP and thus a winter dominated by a mid Atlantic anticyclone with LP moving around the top.  

GemmaD
14 October 2011 16:34:41
I really think that next week will be the gateway to the snow. I'm not saying it's going to be thick snow, just about 3inches thick and then it will continue to be cold until heavy snow arrives. Just my opinion, should come early that's all:)
Gavin D
14 October 2011 16:43:15

I really think that next week will be the gateway to the snow. I'm not saying it's going to be thick snow, just about 3 inches thick and then it will continue to be cold until heavy snow arrives. Just my opinion, should come early that's all:)

Originally Posted by: GemmaD 

My personal opinion is November will be much cooler than normal, though snow next week at low levels isn't nailed on yet, and your location of Livingstone looks like been to warm for snow

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Livingston/long.html

Gavin P
14 October 2011 16:52:26

October IOD model has updated (click the seasonal predictions link in the side bar)

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/

Still going for a cold and dry winter across much of Europe.

Other points of interests;

AMO goes increasingly negative over the next nine months. If this is right, by summer 2012 the Atlantic will be at its coldest since sometime in the early 90's.

La Nina is not forecast to go much beyond weak this winter.

Summer 2012 (a long way off, obviously) forecast cold and wet (probably because of the very cold Atlantic)

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Gavin, your an expert on SSt's.Given the cold Atlantic this winter what do you think will be the likely results for pressure distribution?.My simple mind goes cold sea=HP and thus a winter dominated by a mid Atlantic anticyclone with LP moving around the top.  

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

You can't really take Atlantic SST's in isolation. Its important to look at whats going on in the Pacific, whats going on with the solar situation, etc... We had a cold AMO from the 1960's to the early 1990s, and we had a variety of differant winters, from the severe cold of the 60's winters to the extreme warmth of the late 80's.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 October 2011 17:40:36

October IOD model has updated (click the seasonal predictions link in the side bar)

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/

Still going for a cold and dry winter across much of Europe.

Other points of interests;

AMO goes increasingly negative over the next nine months. If this is right, by summer 2012 the Atlantic will be at its coldest since sometime in the early 90's.

La Nina is not forecast to go much beyond weak this winter.

Summer 2012 (a long way off, obviously) forecast cold and wet (probably because of the very cold Atlantic)

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Gavin, your an expert on SSt's.Given the cold Atlantic this winter what do you think will be the likely results for pressure distribution?.My simple mind goes cold sea=HP and thus a winter dominated by a mid Atlantic anticyclone with LP moving around the top.  

Originally Posted by: roger63 

You can't really take Atlantic SST's in isolation. Its important to look at whats going on in the Pacific, whats going on with the solar situation, etc... We had a cold AMO from the 1960's to the early 1990s, and we had a variety of differant winters, from the severe cold of the 60's winters to the extreme warmth of the late 90's.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Thanks Gavin,Taking other factors as well as SST's doe you have a  view on the likely pressure anoamalies for the winter period?

Gavin P
14 October 2011 18:11:21

Ask me again at the end of November.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
14 October 2011 20:09:23

Should be an interesting few days ahead. Brian will give his thoughts on Sunday regarding the winter, PWS will release their forecast on Tuesday and Accuweather sometime next week. There will be lots to discuss (hopefully).

Kingston Upon Thames
RobSnowman
14 October 2011 20:23:31
Fortunately, there is still 7 weeks until meteorological winter, we will be lucky to get snow in November, as it doesn't always happen, but a bonus if it does. Hopefully, we will get pressure to the North with fronts pushing up into the south of England, so they can get their much needed rain, whilst further North we can dry out with some crisp days. A long shot, but that's my wish list, until winter starts proper. I would have put this in the Autumn thread but everyone seems to have skipped that season as summer rolls into winter again!
I built this snowman of myself.
Saint Snow
14 October 2011 21:42:59

everyone seems to have skipped that season as summer rolls into winter again!

Originally Posted by: RobSnowman 

To be more accurate in our part of the world, winter rolled into spring in early January, summer came and went in April, then autumn kicked in sometime in May, and we've had the same turgid crapfest ever since.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

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pdiddy
14 October 2011 22:20:49

I really think that next week will be the gateway to the snow. I'm not saying it's going to be thick snow, just about 3inches thick and then it will continue to be cold until heavy snow arrives. Just my opinion, should come early that's all:)

Originally Posted by: GemmaD 

 

At this rate you'll be worn out when winter finally comes!

Matty H
14 October 2011 22:28:00

I really think that next week will be the gateway to the snow. I'm not saying it's going to be thick snow, just about 3inches thick and then it will continue to be cold until heavy snow arrives. Just my opinion, should come early that's all:)

Originally Posted by: pdiddy 

 

At this rate you'll be worn out when winter finally comes!

Originally Posted by: GemmaD 

I thought that too. Worn out. (To 'coin' a phrase)

Crazy season is around the corner. You wouldn't think it, though. Close to 20c and clear blue skies again today

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Gavin D
15 October 2011 09:11:37

The Daily Express are back on form again,

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/277583

Maunder Minimum
15 October 2011 09:18:36

everyone seems to have skipped that season as summer rolls into winter again!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

To be more accurate in our part of the world, winter rolled into spring in early January, summer came and went in April, then autumn kicked in sometime in May, and we've had the same turgid crapfest ever since.

Originally Posted by: RobSnowman 

In your back yard! In the West Midlands, we had the driest summer since 1976 (though nowhere near as sunny and warm). It has been followed by a dry autumn thus far. I kid you not - dig in the soil and it is dry as a bone - rake the grass and dust is thrown up. My wife is in despair, since the garden looks so dry and sad. Very odd, since 100 miles to the north and south and rainfall has been average.

New world order coming.
PK2
  • PK2
  • Advanced Member
15 October 2011 09:39:45

everyone seems to have skipped that season as summer rolls into winter again!

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

To be more accurate in our part of the world, winter rolled into spring in early January, summer came and went in April, then autumn kicked in sometime in May, and we've had the same turgid crapfest ever since.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

In your back yard! In the West Midlands, we had the driest summer since 1976 (though nowhere near as sunny and warm). It has been followed by a dry autumn thus far. I kid you not - dig in the soil and it is dry as a bone - rake the grass and dust is thrown up. My wife is in despair, since the garden looks so dry and sad. Very odd, since 100 miles to the north and south and rainfall has been average.

Originally Posted by: RobSnowman 

Seems to me that the last few summers have had a "dry zone" in the SE and a "wet zone" in the NW and that the "dry zone" has been gradually moving NW. Maybe next year it'll be my turn too.... (was hopefully for this year but it wasn't to be)

mikeyo
15 October 2011 10:28:54

The Daily Express are back on form again,

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/277583

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

*IF* this happens then this will be the first time I can remember snow in West Yorkshire in October.

Gavin P
15 October 2011 11:36:23

That Express story really is amazing. Reading it you would think we're deepest Siberia in the depth of winter, not an island next to a warm ocean in the middle of autumn.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

blizzard of 78
15 October 2011 12:49:51

Should be an interesting few days ahead. Brian will give his thoughts on Sunday regarding the winter, PWS will release their forecast on Tuesday and Accuweather sometime next week. There will be lots to discuss (hopefully).

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

 

Indeed it should Sasa.  Something I,m going to do this year is make a hard copy of all the official seasonal forecasts and review them next March. I will thern publish the results in this forum and also in the the local paper that I write a column for.

Its about time some of these companies came in for the same merciless scrutiny that the Meto used to get.

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
15 October 2011 12:53:40

One good thing about the Express story - I researched the world climate service and found a couple of quite cool free tools:

http://www.worldclimateservice.com/sst/

http://www.worldclimateservice.com/subsurface/

You can animate the changes and compare with 12 months ago.  SSTs show quite a cool down across the Northern Atlantic actually - so big cool down in the AMO in progress (not that surprising given the big peak following the 09 el nino event and build up to 2010 la nina).

You can also see that the current la nina is not nearly as strong as last year at the moment - so that's a positive for winter as I was becoming concerned that the CFS might have been on to something.

Reigate, home of the North Downs

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
15 October 2011 12:55:30

Should be an interesting few days ahead. Brian will give his thoughts on Sunday regarding the winter, PWS will release their forecast on Tuesday and Accuweather sometime next week. There will be lots to discuss (hopefully).

Originally Posted by: blizzard of 78 

 

Indeed it should Sasa.  Something I,m going to do this year is make a hard copy of all the official seasonal forecasts and review them next March. I will thern publish the results in this forum and also in the the local paper that I write a column for.

Its about time some of these companies came in for the same merciless scrutiny that the Meto used to get.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Brilliant - I was hoping someone would! Thanks very much, unfortunately I can't get the time these days to do things like that.

Reigate, home of the North Downs

Snow Wolf
15 October 2011 15:45:53

Nothing very exciting here

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Apart from maybe a few Murr flurries in Jan.

Gavin D
15 October 2011 15:59:36

And Precipitation is showing to be below normal as well for some.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbSea.gif

Sevendust
15 October 2011 16:09:27

Nothing very exciting here

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Apart from maybe a few Murr flurries in Jan.

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

As with any LRF it's amusement only for me but my interpretation would be for a possible Murr block early in winter before it all slips SE and it gets mild. Certainly backed up by the dry theme

Gavin D
15 October 2011 16:15:54

Latest update from the Met Office suggests frosts after this week will be unlikely due to it often been too windy.

And November should start with the Atlantic systems in charge moving from west to east across the British Isles temperatures, rainfall amounts, and sunshine totals for this period should be around average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Brian Gaze
15 October 2011 16:20:57

Latest update from the Met Office suggests frosts after this week will be unlikely due to it often been too windy.

And November should start with the Atlantic systems in charge moving from west to east across the British Isles temperatures, rainfall amounts, and sunshine totals for this period should be around average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

November isn't winter so I don't think this is the appropriate thread for the MetO 30 day discussion.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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