The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
18 October 2011 17:04:01

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Weren't they going for a cold one until recently?


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Solar Cycles
18 October 2011 17:05:40

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

The main thing for me is Occasional Wintry Weather, Often Dry in South and February – generally milder

Sounds good to me, so much for this severe winter than which some have predicted.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Quite true seen as we are in mid winter and.......... oh wait it's October still. 

tallyho_83
18 October 2011 17:33:43
Colder winter for southern Europe:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

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SEMerc
18 October 2011 17:36:47

Colder winter for southern Europe:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

This chart has actually flipped from last week when it was showing the probability of a milder-than-normal winter in our neck of the woods.

Gavin P
18 October 2011 18:07:35

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Weren't they going for a cold one until recently?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Well Jonathon has been dropping lots of hints in the Express about a cold winter, but officially PWS hasn't had a winter forecast until now, I don't think.


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Whether Idle
18 October 2011 18:17:29

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Weren't they going for a cold one until recently?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Well Jonathon had been dropping lots of hints in the Express about a cold winter, but officially PWS hasn't had a winter forecast until now, I don't think.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Without wanting to sound flippant, these forecasts are little more than soothe-saying.

I will slit open the guts of a large beast and examine the entrails.  I will post my forecast after Ive disposed of the carcass.  I forecast there will be lots of blood and guts involved though.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
18 October 2011 19:22:19

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 

I wouldn't go slitting my wrists over any PWS  winter forecast .

Here is last winters one from them just so you know why I won't be losing any sleep about it.

 

December 2010: Chilly some wintry weather around.

January 2011: Dry start Wintry weather developing. ( the detail forecast was for possibly disruptive snow after mid-month.  No I didn't see it either.

and the best for last

February 2011: Bitter cold month Wintry weather ( again the detail forecast even more disruptive snowfall then they expected for January.

 

So you can see that the only month they got even close to was December and even that is a very genrous interpretation.

Stormchaser
18 October 2011 19:44:47

Considering a wide range of predictions at the moment just leaves you in a total mess, although its not as bad as it could be;

One outlook makes me think 'Scandi highs could be significant this year' but then another makes it quite clear that blocking near Greenland should dominate, whilst several others are insistent that high pressure will be dominant right over the UK.

 

There is one dominant signal, however, which has been pointed out in this thread a number of times recently - the signal for drier than average conditions. Most of the time drier than average only just wins out on the probability charts but the favourism for such is cropping up all over the place.

If this winter turns out wetter than average then there will be a lot of disgruntled meteorologists about!


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Chalkie
18 October 2011 20:15:37

 

Well Jonathon has been dropping lots of hints in the Express about a cold winter, but officially PWS hasn't had a winter forecast until now, I don't think.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 

Gavin, it's James Madden of Exactaweather who has been the primary "sponsor" of the severe or very cold winter from very early on. PWS, aka Jonathan, have nothing on him....not that that's a compliment in any way!!!

I've been keeping tabs of what's being said by various "agencies" - need to update it soon.

Check www.iontas.net if you're interested in the chronological order of forecasts from the likes of PWS, Exactaweather, etc.

 

Joe

Gavin D
18 October 2011 20:27:51

As well as releasing the Winter Forecast PWS have also issued a PWS Comment Extra - Winter 2011/12 which talks about the Winter Forecast plus a bit more,

The PWS Wintercast 11/12 will now be assessed, reported and probably elaborated upon by British and Irish news media: some will do this fairly, others less so. The media, particularly its written variant, is in that tricky business of sourcing stories that raise profile and sell copy.

January and February will nevertheless have mild passages, and the west looks on the whole well favoured in this regard. Again the west and, at times the north, look fairly well set for rainwater. It may even be wet enough somewhere, at some time, for some flooding – hey, there’s some news - no real clues yet though.

Some disruptive snow there will be – most likely in December across a number of regions. There will also be some uncomfortably expensive cold, most especially in northern, central and eastern areas and particularly during December and January.

Oh, and drought? Well we’re not allowed to mention that, but many southern and possibly eastern regions are likely to receive below average amounts of rain overall – this following a summer 2010 deficit and, we dare mention it, early prospects for quite a dry mid-to-late spring 2012…

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/PWS-Comment-Extra---Winter-2011-12.php 

18 October 2011 20:49:50

What about the lot that forcasted snow in Oct, lots of cold in Nov and mega cold dec, cold jan etc.
Have they backtracked yet.

Originally Posted by: rayjp 

Well, we've had sleet, snow and hail over the last day or so. Mind you we sit at 950 feet asl.

 

My own forecast (guess) is for a colder, longer winter than last year. These winters come in cycles of 16 years or so.

Joe Bloggs
19 October 2011 08:59:02

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

The main thing for me is Occasional Wintry Weather, Often Dry in South and February – generally milder

Sounds good to me, so much for this severe winter than which some have predicted.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I know others have said this already, but winter hasn't happened yet.

So your comment is a bit daft.

It may well turn out mild, but we need to wait until February for that.

It's going to be a long winter..  (especially for us admins and mods)!

Snow Wolf
19 October 2011 09:49:44

PWS are going for an unexciting winter;

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I wonder if that will stop Jonathon predicting armageddon daily in the Express?

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

The main thing for me is Occasional Wintry Weather, Often Dry in South and February – generally milder

Sounds good to me, so much for this severe winter than which some have predicted.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Best move to the Sahara for lovely drought and duststorms - though it can get a bit nippy at night so not ideal. Have we had winter yet then btw?

PK2
  • PK2
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2011 09:56:55

 

Well Jonathon has been dropping lots of hints in the Express about a cold winter, but officially PWS hasn't had a winter forecast until now, I don't think.

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

 

Gavin, it's James Madden of Exactaweather who has been the primary "sponsor" of the severe or very cold winter from very early on. PWS, aka Jonathan, have nothing on him....not that that's a compliment in any way!!!

I've been keeping tabs of what's being said by various "agencies" - need to update it soon.

Check www.iontas.net if you're interested in the chronological order of forecasts from the likes of PWS, Exactaweather, etc.

 

Joe

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

good resource there

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2011 19:06:24

Exacta not backing down, but looks most action confine to north and the coastal regions:

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html


Kingston Upon Thames
Brian Gaze
19 October 2011 19:09:54

Exacta not backing down, but looks most action confine to north and the coastal regions:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Lets hope they don't claim success if we get a few north westerly topplers that bring some to the Pen9s and Scottish hills for a few days. On the other hand, lets also hope their December update doesn't confine the snow forecast to high ground in the north.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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LeedsLad123
19 October 2011 19:20:41

I'm not sure why people are so quick to write of James Madden for, it isn't like he is saying it will be cold just 'because' but actually says why unlike some people. Then again I'm not agreeing with his idea that we will see another record breaker.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Solar Cycles
19 October 2011 19:52:39

I'm not sure why people are so quick to write of James Madden for, it isn't like he is saying it will be cold just 'because' but actually says why unlike some people. Then again I'm not agreeing with his idea that we will see another record breaker.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

I agree, he's no worse than the MetO with their AGW biased LRF. Not many commented on them, when they produced their forecast with their +1c for AGW factored in. 

Essan
19 October 2011 20:41:08

I'm not sure why people are so quick to write of James Madden for, it isn't like he is saying it will be cold just 'because' but actually says why unlike some people. Then again I'm not agreeing with his idea that we will see another record breaker.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I agree, he's no worse than the MetO with their AGW biased LRF. Not many commented on them, when they produced their forecast with their +1c for AGW factored in. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Would those be the ones that said 2011 wouldn't be the coldest year on record? 

 

(seriously, it's OT, but they have never issued such forecasts.  Just because you read it on a blog doesn't mean that the Queen Mum was a reptile or that Nibiru will hit the Earth tomorrow)

 


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

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Sevendust
19 October 2011 20:52:07

I'm not sure why people are so quick to write of James Madden for, it isn't like he is saying it will be cold just 'because' but actually says why unlike some people. Then again I'm not agreeing with his idea that we will see another record breaker.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

I agree, he's no worse than the MetO with their AGW biased LRF. Not many commented on them, when they produced their forecast with their +1c for AGW factored in. 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Would those be the ones that said 2011 wouldn't be the coldest year on record? 

 

(seriously, it's OT, but they have never issued such forecasts.  Just because you read it on a blog doesn't mean that the Queen Mum was a reptile or that Nibiru will hit the Earth tomorrow)

 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

The bigger problem is not Madden but our quality media. They are the ones seeking out the extremist spivs like Madden on the basis of a good story.

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2011 20:55:52

I'm not sure why people are so quick to write of James Madden for, it isn't like he is saying it will be cold just 'because' but actually says why unlike some people. Then again I'm not agreeing with his idea that we will see another record breaker.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

I agree, he's no worse than the MetO with their AGW biased LRF. Not many commented on them, when they produced their forecast with their +1c for AGW factored in. 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Would those be the ones that said 2011 wouldn't be the coldest year on record? 

 

(seriously, it's OT, but they have never issued such forecasts.  Just because you read it on a blog doesn't mean that the Queen Mum was a reptile or that Nibiru will hit the Earth tomorrow)

 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Andy,

You sound like the spokesman for MET office everytime they are mentioned you are keen to jump in and defend them. Good job they abondened seasonal forecasts so we can no longer judge them.


Kingston Upon Thames
LeedsLad123
19 October 2011 20:59:11

I'm not sure why people are so quick to write of James Madden for, it isn't like he is saying it will be cold just 'because' but actually says why unlike some people. Then again I'm not agreeing with his idea that we will see another record breaker.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

I agree, he's no worse than the MetO with their AGW biased LRF. Not many commented on them, when they produced their forecast with their +1c for AGW factored in. 

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Would those be the ones that said 2011 wouldn't be the coldest year on record? 

 

(seriously, it's OT, but they have never issued such forecasts.  Just because you read it on a blog doesn't mean that the Queen Mum was a reptile or that Nibiru will hit the Earth tomorrow)

 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

The bigger problem is not Madden but our quality media. They are the ones seeking out the extremist spivs like Madden on the basis of a good story.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Exactly.. the media take everything out of context.. Madden was never forecasting wide spread snow in October for example


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2011 21:34:07

I'm not sure why people are so quick to write of James Madden for, it isn't like he is saying it will be cold just 'because' but actually says why unlike some people. Then again I'm not agreeing with his idea that we will see another record breaker.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

I agree, he's no worse than the MetO with their AGW biased LRF. Not many commented on them, when they produced their forecast with their +1c for AGW factored in. 

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Would those be the ones that said 2011 wouldn't be the coldest year on record? 

 

(seriously, it's OT, but they have never issued such forecasts.  Just because you read it on a blog doesn't mean that the Queen Mum was a reptile or that Nibiru will hit the Earth tomorrow)

 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Andy,

You sound like the spokesman for MET office everytime they are mentioned you are keen to jump in and defend them. Good job they abondened seasonal forecasts so we can no longer judge them.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

The Met O haven't abandoned seasonal forecasts but they are not issued publically. They are useful to certain kinds of business though, you just have to accept that alll the science permits for our region is a probability forecast which is rarely strongly weighted in a given direction. The result is that they don't tell you too much about a single coming season. This can be seen in for example the solar activitry / winter temperature results. They show that there is a link between low solar activity and colder winters if you take a century of data but as a predictor for the coming winter solar activity is a poor indicator.

On the issue of factoring in global warming  a cold winter is relative to the current average not the average of 30 years ago, that is all really.

Brian Gaze
20 October 2011 06:00:19
It's a shame the MetO don't still publicly issue a proability forecast for the season ahead. I think Meteo France do.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
20 October 2011 09:14:13

It's a shame the MetO don't still publicly issue a proability forecast for the season ahead. I think Meteo France do.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I agree, rightly or wrongly they seem to think that the British public don't understand probability forecasts. They seem to be emabrking on an education campaign on this so maybe they will be back.

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