The latest CFS charts are indicating a very dry Janurary 65% below normal in the south, 55% else where

November is looking rather dry too. Winter is still looking like been drier than normal at times and cold with December now normal for all but Scotland and Northern Ireland, hopefully severe snow fall events will be few and far between.

I didn't really pay attention to those CFS probability charts over the last 2 winters (stuck with the upper air charts) - were they accurate at all?  I guess the thing I'd take from them at the moment - is that although they shift around a bit, we keep getting a signal for at least one pretty cold month to occur during the coming winter - whether that's Dec or January will have to see.  The odds are against Feb due to the la nina - although there have been some big exceptions to that rule (1955 as an example).  If we have a notably cold Jan, then I'd bank on Feb coming in no higher than average, even though it might be the warmest of the winter months.

I suspect the tendency for grouping of cold winters gives a good basis from which to produce a seasonal forecast in the UK. I'd say it's a more useful pointer than ENSO (or for that matter the other teleconnections which get mentioned from time to time) on its own.

I've got this idea that the Atlantic will struggle to maintain even average levels of activity near the UK once the tropical input declines, this leading to a drier than average period covering all of October to February and possibly into the spring next year. If that happens, I hope April is the month to break the run!

All I'm really doing is looking at the long range model outputs and then adding a bit of gut feeling and common sense into the mix

Such a method also produces the idea that a period of significantly below average temperatures will start by mid October rather than later in November like in 2010. I might be allowing CFS to have a bit too much influence on me, I must admit!

What really stands out to me on that CFS output is the dramatic switch across Europe from above average in September to below average in October. IMO this is strongly indicative of a weak Atlantic influence, with slack winds featuring far more often than normal across NW Europe at least. Weak troughs travel our way but often take a track near the channel (for example); this could explain the positive temperature anomaly over northern parts of Scandinavia.

Does anyone have the temperature forecast instead!? Thanks.

The archive of CFS forecasts is here if you want to refer back to previous years.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/

ETA  - t2m for Tally but no real signal showing up as yet.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Thanks for that - probability forecast at this time last year was fairly close to the mark in terms of the early winter cold, although it should have showed Scotland as colder (fairly small error though on the macro scale). 

But they also indicate above normal rainfall here in the Midlands for September ........ which currently looks as likely as a Mars Bar factory being discovered on the Moon next week.

Make of that what you will.

Indeed. Rainfall is below average yet again. However, that could change as the rest of the month goes on.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif

Already signs of becomming more favourable IMO - notice the track of Katia as well. 

I like the fact there is a cold pool just to the west of the UK, would like to see some cold anomalies develop near the SE US too. If this occured along with warm tropical SST's and warm SST's off the coast of Greenland this would be very favourable for a negative NAO.

Trust me, lets say the average days of precipitation in December in the UK is 15, then a dyer than average one would mean 9,10,11 days of precipitation.

No too sure about you but a very below average temperature December coupled with 11 days of precipitation would mean a notable amount of snow.

People take things very literally, just when they see that light yellow or white patch of precipitation they think 'great, NO precipitation this time'.

Its not like that, trust me

Never trust a man who says "trust me". 

December 2010 was very dry.

Or it might means 2 days of heavy rain but dry the rest of the month.

For example, Aug here was close to normal rainfall, but the majority of it fell in just 2 days.

Or, we could have light precipitation most days - giving the perception of a wet month - but with no heavy storms, end up with below average precipitation.

Looking at other factors may help determine which, if any, scenario is most likely.

ECM Oct-Dec temperature forecast looks very average;

http://retro.met.no/sesongvarsler/index.html

it was very wrong last autumn Gav. 

I often find like most models ECM is mildcentric. So a forecast for "average" would probably verify as 1c or so colder than average.

Those IRI chars usually have the UK bathed in reds, so I would suggest the fact they are favouring a near average period implies it could be quite a bit colder than average in reality.

Thanks Matt.

Very interesting. Personally I'd like a wet winter to try and make up the rainfall deficit a bit... Whether that be in the form of rain or snow, I don't mind.

Doesn't sound like I'm going to get it though...

High pressure to the west would be OK for cold if we can get regular rises in pressure either over Greenland or Scandinavia and I wouldn't expect computer models to be able to pick up either until much closer to the winter.

Of course if low pressure is strong and frequent from Greenland to Scandinavia it risks locking us into a winter like 91/92, which would have everyone on here tearing their hair out by February.

Not yet.