Agreed Gavin a wetter winter would be better but with some decent cold spells/snow mixed in from time to time.

There seems to be plenty out there to suggest a rather dry winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

CFS is suggesting a very impressive November, with strong blocking to our NW, followed by a rapid decline to high pressure dominant to our SW by December. It looks like last winter but shifted forward a bit so that the seriously cold weather (relative to averages) gets underway possibly as early as mid to late October (which looks as impressive as November relative to the time of year).

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

CFS is predicting a stronger La Nina than ALL other models. It will likely have to back down, which will probably influence the predicted pressure anomalies later in the winter.

FWIW many times this year I've seen the predicted location of high pressure shifted north by a thousand miles or so once we reach the month in question; such a thing changed what looked like a passable summer setup for many of us into a dire one for much of the UK during June and July.

ECM is predicting a weak La Nina but still has high pressure strongly influencing us throughout the winter and rarely from a good position to deliver significant cold. My interpretation of this is that there is something else having a major influence on what the models think will happen this winter, the state of this 'something' being more or less agreed upon between CFS and ECM.

I think if the most winterish set-ups occurred in November, it'd be the most infuriating of winters. I'd take a repeat of last winter every year.

I agree about the location of high pressure ultimately being further north than LRF's initially indicate. It's a trend that I hope continues, although the northern blocking that's been semi-permanent for months does show signs of breaking down. That'd be sod's law in action.

Overall, I'm really not optimistic about us getting a decent winter this year. Gut feeling is that it will be quite dismal with temps somewhere between average and slightly-above-average, and any cold spell disappointingly short-lived.

Me too, not sure why! Hopefully I'll be surprised..

After all, there's nothing scientific in my thoughts, just gut instinct.

and a sound application of the laws of probability...........

I suspect the thing thats giving people doubt is that we've had three cold winters and the trot and four seems to be pushing it - But then again five poor summers seemed unlikely in May 2011 and we all know how that turned out.

I suspect the thing thats giving people doubt is that we've had thre cold winters and the trot and four seems to be pushing it - But then again five poor summers seemed unlikely in May 2011 and we all know how that turned out.

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Some on here including Brian & TomC think that INCREASES the chance of another cold winter.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I don't see how it can make the chances of getting a cold winter any less for sure, on the other hand I certainly wouldn't base a prediction on it. Not scientific really but has anyone looked through the records of 3 cold winters in a row ? What was the  4th winter like ?

From what I can see there have been the following combinations of three cold winters together in the 20th century;

16/17, 17/18, 18/19

39/40, 40/41, 41/42

53/54, 54/55, 55/56

76/77, 77/78, 78/79

84/85, 85/86, 86/87

None of these winters were followed by a fourth cold winter.

However, the 1960's, while not having four cold winters on the trot did have a combination of 5 winters on the trot from 61/62 to 65/66 with at least one cold month and in the whole decade only one winter, 66/67 could probably be described as mild from start to finish (and even that wasn't that mild by 90's standards)

Of course once you go back into the Victorian era and beyond you would almost certainly find more than three cold winters togther, though that was starting from an entirely differant base and a lot of months we might look at and think looks cold, to the people alive in that era probably wouldn't seem that bad.

It doesn't work like that IMO.

I suppose it depends on the actual synoptics of the individual winters.

Northern blocking and a southerly-displaced jet have been quite prevalent in the past few years. If that pattern were to continue, we could reasonably expect more rubbish summers but a higher incidence of better winters. Therefore, the chance of a good winter is increased - not because of the previous 3 good winters, but because the conditions that 'allowed' the previous 3 winters to be good are still in place.

If 3 cold winters happened with 3 different prevailing set-ups, then you wouldn't expect any correlation with the following winter.

I guess it's like the flipping of a coin. If you get 3 heads on the run, the chances of getting a fourth are still 1 in 2. But if the reason for the 3 consecutive heads is because the tails side has been weighted, then the chances of a fourth heads on the bounce increases.

A good way of looking at this is as a 'strange attractor' in a chaotic fluid so whilst the flow remains chaotic there is an attraction to certain modes eg Northern blocking over the Eastern Atlantic. This doesn't mean that the northern blocking will always occur. The strange attractor can be a range of factors like SST anomalies

Here is a link that discusses the idea of attractors in chaotic systems

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor

So, anyone think we'll get another very mild February?      Will winter be over by Christmas again?   

Probably because we were so spoiled last year Joe it is human nature to think it could not be as good/bad again depending on your preference. Then again I did not think it could be as bad as january 2010 in winter 10/11 and I was proved wrong. Are you no longer in Edinburgh at all now?? I hope you will still be forecasting for the east of Scotland  or there is a lot of pessure on JoeSchmoe and michael

Check out this run of cold January CET's

1807 - 2.8
1808 - 2.6
1809 - 2.0
1810 - 2.2
1811 - 1.2
1812 - 2.6
1813 - 1.9
1814 - -2.9
1815 - 0.3
1816 - 2.7

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

A run of ten Januaries that we would class as cold to severe.

I think the low SST's to the West of the British Isles for quite some time now. (heading for -2 -3 C anomalies in places )will decrease the moderating effect of the Atlantic on westerly or northwestery winds.

This should increase the chances of a prolonged cold winter,imo.

This is not a wish or a hope cast btw.I just think its a possibility.

Nope, no longer in Edinburgh I'm afraid! I've moved back to Manchester, which is even more snowless than Edinburgh. Right in the middle of the city centre too, might as well rename it Mildsville.

In all seriousness, I'll be joining Harold, Saint Snow, Muckyme etc, and praying for deep cold, Arctic WNW'lies, think Dec 2009/Jan 2010!

I'll definitely be keeping an eye out for those snow laden easterlies though.

Looking at the latest charts, we're still in the regime of northern blocking, even if it's just temporary bouts of it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn241.png - edit, can't seem to post the link, apologies.

Long may it continue. 

If you spin a roullette wheel and get four consecutive red numbers the chances of the fifth number being red is 50/50. The same would be the case after a run of ten reds. It would be a brave man that would bet on red again but only for emotional reasons not mathematical ones.

This may be an over simplification in terms of the weather because historical data comes into play but only to determine the starting odds. If we have had 50 cold winters and 50 warm winters over the last 100 years then the chances are 50/50 regardless of the previous 4 winters. Is this an over simplification? It is , only if we believe that there has been a climate/ jet stream/etc shift towards cold winters in the UK over this last few years and that the last 100 years is no longer relevant.

Dalton minimum effect perhaps - so that bodes well if we are seeing something of a repeat at the moment.  The other factor favouring a cold winter is that everyone is going to be going on strike, presumably including the gritting crews...

IOD model has updated for September;

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/

Looks like we're heading for a cool to cold autumn and winter with an emphasis on dry conditions. Blocking looks particularly focused in the Atlantic and up to Greenland/Iceland.

Interestingly spring looks wetter than average (though thats a long way off)

IOD has been rock solid in forecasting a "double dip" La Nina for many months and never wavered. So in this regard the model has done extremely well.

(As usual click the seasonal predictions tab in the side bar)

Wouldn't mind seeing a month like January 1814 again 

The coldest ever month in Scandanavia by some distance, the synoptics must have been incredibly blocked during that month, also the last time there was a frost fair on the River Thames I believe.

Probabilities suggest that we cant get 4 cold winters in a row but if there are factors in place than I can't see why we can't get a 4th. I think the jet will be buckling this year thanks to a negative PDO which generally (but not always) buckles the jet stream via a very strong Pacific high pressure cell which may have an effect over here. SST's in the Atlantic for the timebeing look rather favourable and the high pressure over the SE US and positive temperature anomalies seem to have abated for now.

However it is only September, LRF forecasting is especially difficult even for winter but I reckon by November we will start seeing some more signals as to where our winter is headed.

IMO if we do see some serious cold it won't be in the form of big Greenland highs dragging in arctic air, instead I reckon the cold air will come from the east in the form of a Scandanavian high, but hey this is the weather so what do I know .

That's good to hear, a cold but dry winter still possible, interesting to see a wetter than average spring is showing could be good for Summer.

Spring 2011 was drier than normal and warmer

Summer 2011, Cold and wet

So may a wet spring could be better for our chances of a good summer.

Very interesting cheers Gav.