The Weather Outlook

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blizzard of 78
17 September 2011 15:33:34

My first post for a while. Its always very interesting to read peoples thoughts.

Regarding the coming winter I see nothing in the current set up and the predicted outcomes for Enso/pdo/nao etc that would see the atmosphere in our part of the world differing hugely from the last three winters.

So my tentative prediction at this time would be for another winter in which we have at least one extended cold and snowy spell that we could only have dreamed of ten years ago. Quite probably colder than average overall. By how much, only time will tell.

Stormchaser
17 September 2011 21:47:58

These days I do find myself thinking 'when will the big snow event be this time around' rather than 'will there be a big snow event this time around'


I'd like to see a staggering amount of snow on the ground for once though. By that I mean over 18 inches in depth. See, I have a scale where 0 to 3 inches is 'decorative otherwise meh', 3-6 inches is useful but not by any means impressive, 6-12 inches is quite something and 12-18 inches is really something. Only once past 18 inches are we into 'staggering' territory.

Okay, so maybe its not that specific but you get my idea. Ideally such an event falls from 11pm Friday and is gone again by the 5am following Monday....


I cant remember seeing more than 12 inches here and that was short lived, occuring in December last year, soon compacted by rainfall which created an icy nightmare for this region during the 9 days that followed. So despite three cold winters a properly huge snow event has yet to arrive here during my memorable lifetime.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Jay Lad
17 September 2011 22:10:30

These days I do find myself thinking 'when will the big snow event be this time around' rather than 'will there be a big snow event this time around'


I'd like to see a staggering amount of snow on the ground for once though. By that I mean over 18 inches in depth. See, I have a scale where 0 to 3 inches is 'decorative otherwise meh', 3-6 inches is useful but not by any means impressive, 6-12 inches is quite something and 12-18 inches is really something. Only once past 18 inches are we into 'staggering' territory.

Okay, so maybe its not that specific but you get my idea. Ideally such an event falls from 11pm Friday and is gone again by the 5am following Monday....


I cant remember seeing more than 12 inches here and that was short lived, occuring in December last year, soon compacted by rainfall which created an icy nightmare for this region during the 9 days that followed. So despite three cold winters a properly huge snow event has yet to arrive here during my memorable lifetime.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 

I think your location does you no favours to be honest, also having said that even where I am the worst I've seen here was in Feb 1991 when we had about 18 inches and drifting with it too, since then however we haven't had anywhere near that amount, Jan 2010 we had about 12 inches and last Nov/Dec again about 12 inches overall, so to be honest if I can't get 18 inches or more here in an elevated location up north in the Pennines then the south coast won't that's for sure!

My grandad told me that in the very harsh 1947-8 winter he and his family had to climb out of the bedroom window to get out of the house due to the depth of the snow blocking the front and back doors and downstairs windows - now that's what you call proper snow!, will we see that again I wonder?

LeedsLad123
17 September 2011 22:37:55

These days I do find myself thinking 'when will the big snow event be this time around' rather than 'will there be a big snow event this time around'


I'd like to see a staggering amount of snow on the ground for once though. By that I mean over 18 inches in depth. See, I have a scale where 0 to 3 inches is 'decorative otherwise meh', 3-6 inches is useful but not by any means impressive, 6-12 inches is quite something and 12-18 inches is really something. Only once past 18 inches are we into 'staggering' territory.

Okay, so maybe its not that specific but you get my idea. Ideally such an event falls from 11pm Friday and is gone again by the 5am following Monday....


I cant remember seeing more than 12 inches here and that was short lived, occuring in December last year, soon compacted by rainfall which created an icy nightmare for this region during the 9 days that followed. So despite three cold winters a properly huge snow event has yet to arrive here during my memorable lifetime.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I agree with you there. We got around 10 inches in December, which, sure, is pretty deep, but I'm yet to see any really deep snow this century, and I mean a foot or more. Last time I saw over a foot was 1995.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
NickR
18 September 2011 07:34:40

We reached almost 16" here this year. Yet to break the 40cm mark, though.

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2011 08:12:55

IOD model has updated for September;

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/

Looks like we're heading for a cool to cold autumn and winter with an emphasis on dry conditions. Blocking looks particularly focused in the Atlantic and up to Greenland/Iceland.

Interestingly spring looks wetter than average (though thats a long way off)

IOD has been rock solid in forecasting a "double dip" La Nina for many months and never wavered. So in this regard the model has done extremely well.

(As usual click the seasonal predictions tab in the side bar)

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I think it did okay last winter (if memory serves), but take a look at what it was forecasting for our summer just gone! 

Reigate, home of the North Downs

Gavin P
18 September 2011 09:25:23

Latest update from the Beijing long range model shows high pressure anomaly covering pretty much of Europe from Dec-Feb;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L3.GIF

Long range models definately seem to be trending towards another high pressure dominated winter.

Interestingly the Jan-Mar anomaly shows the core of the high pressure centered more towards Scandinavia;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L4.GIF

 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Sevendust
18 September 2011 09:48:00

Latest update from the Beijing long range model shows high pressure anomaly covering pretty much of Europe from Dec-Feb;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L3.GIF

Long range models definately seem to be trending towards another high pressure dominated winter.

Interestingly the Jan-Mar anomaly shows the core of the high pressure centered more towards Scandinavia;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L4.GIF

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Could be a very dull winter under European gloom. Apart from the obvious cold and snow events of December last year, my memory was of the unremitting dullness. I think the same happened back in January 1963 as well. A dry, cold and dull winter would certainly not be my favoured option!

WMB
  • WMB
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2011 10:18:03

Latest update from the Beijing long range model shows high pressure anomaly covering pretty much of Europe from Dec-Feb;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L3.GIF

Long range models definately seem to be trending towards another high pressure dominated winter.

Interestingly the Jan-Mar anomaly shows the core of the high pressure centered more towards Scandinavia;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L4.GIF

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Could be a very dull winter under European gloom. Apart from the obvious cold and snow events of December last year, my memory was of the unremitting dullness. I think the same happened back in January 1963 as well. A dry, cold and dull winter would certainly not be my favoured option!

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Dullness?  I think there was as nearly as much sun last December as there was this August round here.

LeedsLad123
18 September 2011 10:27:20

Latest update from the Beijing long range model shows high pressure anomaly covering pretty much of Europe from Dec-Feb;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L3.GIF

Long range models definately seem to be trending towards another high pressure dominated winter.

Interestingly the Jan-Mar anomaly shows the core of the high pressure centered more towards Scandinavia;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L4.GIF

Originally Posted by: WMB 

Could be a very dull winter under European gloom. Apart from the obvious cold and snow events of December last year, my memory was of the unremitting dullness. I think the same happened back in January 1963 as well. A dry, cold and dull winter would certainly not be my favoured option!

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Dullness?  I think there was as nearly as much sun last December as there was this August round here.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

It was a very dull month in the South East, sunny elsewhere.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
18 September 2011 11:17:33

See, I have a scale where 0 to 3 inches is 'decorative otherwise meh', 3-6 inches is useful but not by any means impressive, 6-12 inches is quite something and 12-18 inches is really something. Only once past 18 inches are we into 'staggering' territory.

I cant remember seeing more than 12 inches here and that was short lived

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 

Oooooh, matron!

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Snow Wolf
18 September 2011 11:18:52

Latest update from the Beijing long range model shows high pressure anomaly covering pretty much of Europe from Dec-Feb;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L3.GIF

Long range models definately seem to be trending towards another high pressure dominated winter.

Interestingly the Jan-Mar anomaly shows the core of the high pressure centered more towards Scandinavia;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L4.GIF

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Not too bad I suppose as long as the high pressure isn't too far south over Europe and shockingly low pressure anomolies over Greenland.

Charmhills
18 September 2011 11:22:16

Latest update from the Beijing long range model shows high pressure anomaly covering pretty much of Europe from Dec-Feb;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L3.GIF

Long range models definately seem to be trending towards another high pressure dominated winter.

Interestingly the Jan-Mar anomaly shows the core of the high pressure centered more towards Scandinavia;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L4.GIF

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Could be a very dull winter under European gloom. Apart from the obvious cold and snow events of December last year, my memory was of the unremitting dullness. I think the same happened back in January 1963 as well. A dry, cold and dull winter would certainly not be my favoured option!

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Anticyclonic gloom is the worst of all worlds.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

DTHFCJ
18 September 2011 11:25:32

See, I have a scale where 0 to 3 inches is 'decorative otherwise meh', 3-6 inches is useful but not by any means impressive, 6-12 inches is quite something and 12-18 inches is really something. Only once past 18 inches are we into 'staggering' territory.

I cant remember seeing more than 12 inches here and that was short lived

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

Oooooh, matron!

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

that sir was a classic

Gavin P
18 September 2011 11:44:07

Latest update from the Beijing long range model shows high pressure anomaly covering pretty much of Europe from Dec-Feb;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L3.GIF

Long range models definately seem to be trending towards another high pressure dominated winter.

Interestingly the Jan-Mar anomaly shows the core of the high pressure centered more towards Scandinavia;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201201_201203GLZ500L4.GIF

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Could be a very dull winter under European gloom. Apart from the obvious cold and snow events of December last year, my memory was of the unremitting dullness. I think the same happened back in January 1963 as well. A dry, cold and dull winter would certainly not be my favoured option!

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

A winter like 91/92 certainly seems to be a risk based on the pressure anomalies we're seeing here.

I think it really depends how strong that La Nina gets. If it reaches moderate or strong the jet stream could keep us locked into a continuous mid latitude high pressure.

If its weak, hopefully there will be opportunities to hook the high up to Scandinavia at least.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

John S2
18 September 2011 12:27:53

A winter like 91/92 certainly seems to be a risk based on the pressure anomalies we're seeing here.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Personally I would be happy if we had a winter like 91/92, but it is extremely unlikely IMO. Some reasons:

1) Recent patterns over the UK have been very different to 1991 which had a very dry August in England followed by anticyclonic conditions during the first half of September

2) The unusual hemispheric pattern in winter 91/92 was partly caused by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

3) Solar state is very different

I think 2008 is quite a good analogue - ie perhaps we will get something similar to winter 08/09.

nouska
18 September 2011 12:35:46
Don't know if you have looked at other than the 500 charts but BCC are not showing a La Nina for the winter months. That is in direct contrast to most other LRF agencies so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.
Gavin P
18 September 2011 12:56:47

Don't know if you have looked at other than the 500 charts but BCC are not showing a La Nina for the winter months. That is in direct contrast to most other LRF agencies so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Originally Posted by: nouska 

I hadn't looked at that, thanks.

Personally I think its got that wrong. I mean, we're already seeing a pretty definate La Nina signal and at the very least I think that can only persist until winter;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.9.15.2011.gif 

Sub surface temperatures are cold, also, so some sort of La Nina seems odds on to me.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Jiries
18 September 2011 19:25:32

A winter like 91/92 certainly seems to be a risk based on the pressure anomalies we're seeing here.

Originally Posted by: John S2 

Personally I would be happy if we had a winter like 91/92, but it is extremely unlikely IMO. Some reasons:

1) Recent patterns over the UK have been very different to 1991 which had a very dry August in England followed by anticyclonic conditions during the first half of September

2) The unusual hemispheric pattern in winter 91/92 was partly caused by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

3) Solar state is very different

I think 2008 is quite a good analogue - ie perhaps we will get something similar to winter 08/09.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Yes it made many cities in the Middle East getting record very low maxes, I remember Riyadh was 6C, Kuwait 7C, Mecca and Jeddah which normally the warmest place in winter got only 14C, 5C in Cairo and 7C in Luxor, subzero temps inland in Palestine, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon and 2C in Nicosia, Cyprus.  It was also cold in Europe only UK was left out.

Stormchaser
18 September 2011 19:49:24

I'll be keeping an eye on the potential for snow on my birthday this year, which is 31st October

The way things are looking at the moment, November will be the heart of winter for us, with spring arriving in January

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Gavin D
18 September 2011 20:17:01

I'll be keeping an eye on the potential for snow on my birthday this year, which is 31st October

The way things are looking at the moment, November will be the heart of winter for us, with spring arriving in January

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Sounds even better than Janurary this year, does that mean summer will arriver in May lol

hedgehog4
18 September 2011 21:04:01

I'll be keeping an eye on the potential for snow on my birthday this year, which is 31st October

The way things are looking at the moment, November will be the heart of winter for us, with spring arriving in January

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Sounds even better than Janurary this year, does that mean summer will arriver in May lol

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Oh but does that mean next Autumn will arrive in July ? 😞  

broken nail
18 September 2011 22:37:44

I'll be keeping an eye on the potential for snow on my birthday this year, which is 31st October

The way things are looking at the moment, November will be the heart of winter for us, with spring arriving in January

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Ah that explains a lot!!!!

Saint Snow
18 September 2011 22:39:53

I'll be keeping an eye on the potential for snow on my birthday this year, which is 31st October

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

My eldest daughter's is, too.

Did your childhood birthday parties have any particular theme, by any chance?

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Stormchaser
18 September 2011 23:03:05

I'll be keeping an eye on the potential for snow on my birthday this year, which is 31st October

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

My eldest daughter's is, too.

Did your childhood birthday parties have any particular theme, by any chance?

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Indeed they did I know of another two who were born on the same day of the year. Start looking around and it soon starts to get overwhelming especially with the green hue that we tend to exhibit

 

- and Broken nail you don't know the half of it

 

To have gone trick-or-treating in the snow, that would have been something...

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

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