Interesting to see most of the 30's dominated by a moderate to strong +ve PDO - does that mean that the article I quoted from which speaks of cooler than normal Pacific temperatures is wrong or talking of cool temps relative to such a +ve PDO? Either that or the linked site has it wrong somehow (seems less likely).

Thanks to GW for providing some statistics on the period in question. The similarities in the tropics is quite something!

I reckon we should have a sunspot number somewhere between 50 and 60 during the winter months - so according to the above, assuming a QBO of around -20, then we'd expect a mean AO of around -1 - which could certainly increase the liklihood of a notable cold spell during the winter. 

I think maybe it was really just the dust bowl years where the tropical pacific was cold and atlantic warm - but the PDO was certainly positive in the 30s - other than just before the mid 30s - here's another link to prove it

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO_AMO.htm

Not sure how reliable are these forecasts are, but they got the summer 2011 more or less correct and yes it was dull and damp as for winter 2011/12 - Scroll down on below link beneath Summer 2011 forecast and take a look under Winter 2011-2010:

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/2011/01/uk-summer-and-winter-weather-forecast_31.html

I think that without the mini-heat wave we had [mainly reserved for the SE] back during the end of June - This summer would have been a write-off!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-14816984

Scotland planning ahead...

Well that's torn it - we'll have a benign winter for sure now they're preparing for a cold one 

 Good post and an interesting comparison, not far at all from my thoughts. Interesting to note that the current pattern in Australia is very 1950's when strong La Nina years brought some very wet years and flooding. Most water in Lake Eyre in central Australia since the 50's at the moment.

I have also been punting for a colder Feb 

Personally, I don't think a relatively weak La Nina is going to have much of an impact on our winter this year.

I would punt for conditions in the pacific to be pretty much neutral throughout autumn and winter.

I am more interested in solar activity, and current patterns when looking towards my LRF.

I believe that the activity has increased in this respect in recent months, and this will (in my opinion) have an impact this winter.

Early thoughts are a much less severe winter than the previous two, although perhaps lasting a little longer when any cold spells do materialise.

I don't expect January and February to be record-breakingly mild, but equally, I don't anticipate December to be record-breakingly cold.

First opinion from my perspective is that a more "average" winter is likely, based on the balance of probability.

That's not to say I don't expect some interest from all quarters during December/January & February.

I will continue to collate the data that I use for formulating my LRF and I will issue preliminary thoughts at the end of October, followed by my full LRF on November 30th.

Conclusion of NOAA ENSO discussion La Nina advisory Sept 8th

"While it is not yet clear what the ultimate strength of this La Niña will be, La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12."

Becoming cold globally

When this thread started in early July I set out the state of key indicators for winter 2011/12.Two months on in early September seems  a good time to setout the latest position on the these.

1.ENSO-NOAA latest advisory has La Nina conditions having returned and expected to gradually stregthen into the Northern hemisphere winter11/12.(Early July the call was 50:50 neutral:weak La Nina)

2.SST's still not a clear signal.Would welcome interpretation of latest SST's by the experts.

3.Solar Activity. August average sunspot figure 50.5 but some strengthening at end of month.However the level of 50.5 is low and is still below figures earlier in the year although it has increased slightly over the last 2 months.

4.QBO In August moved from positive westerly to negative easterly,the colder option.

5.Northern blocking/Jet. In July and August this continued.Currently Jet is across UK but NWP outputs suggest that later in September the jet will shift northward and may reduce blocking.This may however be temporary.

6.CFS maps. Temerature plots show probability of below average and at best average temperatures over most of Europe for Dec-Feb period.

Conclusion.On the basis of this information I would call  a below average CET(<3.9C) in the UK for the Dec-Feb period ie a rather cold winter.Nearer the time we may have a better idea of how intense the cold might be.

Just some thoughts on the SSTs (although I wouldn't call myself an expert) - at the moment if you combine la nina conditions with the current SSTs off Newfoundland - and then took that forward to the winter period, then I would see a ridge in the jet near the SE US (as per Nina norm) sending the southern arm up to meet the polar arm over those warm SSTs around newfoundland.  There's no real cold anomalies in that region, so IMO this would favour a strong zonal jet across the atlantic heading to the north of Scotland. This might allow for some Euro/UK type blocking at times, but you'd be struggling to get cold upper air across the UK.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Having said all that, I think the SST pattern will change somewhat given the current tropical storm track - which is favouring storms running up the US East Coast - the same thing happened in 2008 if I recall correctly - and that's why I think we still have a shot of an interesting winter. If we see the same SST profile at the end of Nov that we have now, I'd be a lot less bullish for cold & snowy weather here.

I'm very interested to hear other people's thoughts on this though - especially if others have a different opinion on those SSTs.

The position of the Jet is - as far as I understand it - just the symptom of a whole load of other factors combining.

However, after seeing northern blocking and thus a more southerly jet ruin yet another summer, it'd be heartbreaking to see the jet shift back northwards to also give us a crap winter.

The jet displaced far to the north of the UK in summer and southwards in winter isn't too much to ask is it?  

Evere heard of Sod's Law?    9 times out of 10 it proves true!

We actually have a remarkably similar SST profile to 2008;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2008/anomnight.9.8.2008.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.9.8.2011.gif

Cold October coming? Would also be in line with the METO update

Thanks for that Gavin - I hadn't checked back - but I had a feeling things were similar. TS Maria should become a hurricane shortly and run up towards Newfoundland - so that will be another hit to Sea Temps in the region, along with whatever impact Katia is having at the moment. I'm sure we saw quite a cooling in the region during Sept/October 2008 due to Tropical storms/hurricanes - which acted against the warming that sometimes happens due to the La Nina ridging around the SE US - and set us up with a decent signal for blocking through the winter.

If we don't lose some of that warm water around Newfoundland though, I'll be going mild for the winter.  

Yes we had some lying snow one morning (just a couple of cms) - first in October down here for many years - but it was much more common in the 19th century and LIA times.

The last week was cold as far as I recall. IIRC the last few days of October '08 saw the first October snowfall to low levels in southern England since the 1930's.

One other positive for the winter by the way is the lack of sea ice off the coast of Siberia at the moment.  This ought to allow deeper snow cover across Siberia as we go through Oct/Nov before it freezes over - which can also assist with stratospheric warming events (mainly later in the winter - but wouldn't rule out a minor warming of sorts in nov, before the sun gets too low) due to reflected sunlight off the deep snows helping create ozone in the stratosphere - that's the theory anyway.

South of Basingstoke, 29th October 2008

That led to amazing snow streamers in Feb 2009. Sadly the deep cold had been severely miss out on both 2009-2010 winters here.  Snow wasn't a shortage recently but really need deep cold to go along with it and get best minimum results.