http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif 

Thanks.

I noticed a 'preliminary' winter forecast on uk.sci.weather giving a 70% chance of a cold winter again. A lot of people on that forum seem to work for the Met Office, and I have no idea whether the forecast is in any way representative of their current thinking.

Nino is looking too weak this year certainly below -1.5 is looking unlikely

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images1/PDFcr_nino34SSTSea.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/PDFcr_nino34SSTSea.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/PDFcr_nino34SSTSea.gif

It could go close to been positive which wouldn't be good news for those after a cold winter, but i think it will go no lower than -1.5

Nobody knows for sure what winter 2011-12 will bring, there's no need to jump the gun just yet as to if it will be mild or cold. Last November most of us we're thinking it was going to stay mild and wet like it was in the Oct and most of Nov, but look what happened towards the end of November - it really took alot of us by surprise it was as though someone flicked a switch and quickly put us into the freezer from the east!

So really it would be best for most of us to take things in our stride for the next 8 weeks and only by then we will have a better idea of what is possibly to come. That's the most realistic outcome at this time.

That makes it seem so soon.. but really it isn't!

Also worth noting that the different CFS models see different intensities.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif 

It's just as you know models and long range forecasting change so much in a few days never mind 8 weeks so it's wise to be at least a bit sceptical, still it'll soon be here.

I had a look at this and consider what I saw to be of no value because

(a) no reasons for the statement were provided

(b) the poster stated that 'global cooling continues', which is of course factually incorrect

Despite what I have said above, if I was making a prediction now I would go for cold for several reasons - with solar probably being the most important.

Yep agreed, there has not been any real warming or cooling for the last decade (lights fuse and steps back)

Interesting reading on here for the most part, some really good charts to look at. Obvsiously its more a case of light heartingly looking at what they are offering. On the most part favourable for colder conditions again.

Last winter Brian stated that he thought cold conditions coming from the Greenland High (which brought most of our weather during december) would be unlikely to return that winter and that was a notable statement, as it turned out correct and i see similar set ups again during late autumn and early winter.

Lets not forgot that winter was only evident in late november and all of december, away from that it was pretty average to cool.

totally incorrect statement IMO. Global cooling is a theory on the world, not just the UK. Even if the UK has not shown warmer or cooler patterns in the last decade. Global conditions alter dramatically.

National cooling has been more evident than anyting the last 5 years has shown much larger evidence of cooler conditions. Looking back over the monthly temperatures since 2006, each month generally below average to average, with exceptions of course

I was talking globally as was John - i.e. global temperatures have remained essentially flat for around a decade . Certainly conditions in the UK have cooled though as you say - CET data certainly shows this - although not enough of a time period to be meaningful yet.

I disagree that global temperatures have been flat over the past decade there is a clear warming eg

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

As fot CET well yes the last few years have been cooler in the last few years although only 2010 has been below the 1981 to 1990 average

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

There is a suggestion from this that we are in a group of colder winters in the UK which may increase the chances of a cold winter this year.

Brian, if you visited uk.sci.weather more regularly you'd see that this forecast came from someone who changes identity frequently to "avoid" being blocked by readers.

Terry is his name and the 'forecast' is only there to wind up people like Dawlish (Paul Garvey) or others who disagree with Terry's view of the world!!! It was entertaining to a point but now has become tiresome.......

So the 'preliminary' forecast is nothing but nonsense and definitely not representative of anyone's thoughts who works at the UK Met Office. Yes, there are a few contributors but none would put forward something like this. Will Hand does post "thoughts" for the season...or he did....and he would be first to admit it is not an exact science and far from it!!!

Joe

 Indeed. The last few years have shown the biggest decline in CET since the 1860s. Quite astonishing. The biggest shift in CET averages for 150 years seems more than interdecadel variation. 

This recent decline is primarily due to cold winters - and there are probably some more on the way. Recent Springs have been the opposite, having included several record breaking warm months - April 2007, May 2008 {UK? not CET}, April 2011

There were declines as sharp in the 80s and 60s during periods of cold winters (but only for a few years) I think though that there is some evidence for 'grouping' of cold winters and this is relevant to attempts to forecast the forthcoming winter. The warming of the CET in recent decades just means that these 'falls' are from a higher baseline and so still do happen.

Can we keep the global warming drivel for the climatezzzzzz forum? This thread is for posting pointless guesses on the weather in 3 months time. Ta 👍 👅

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Classic. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

LOL  sorry my fault.  - I knew Tom C would pop up though after I posted what I did! I swear he has a robot program scanning Two for climate change references  - much as I'd like to respond to the last comment, i'll leave it there.

 I've been making this point for years.

I would say your not wrong, its all down to evidence  I think the evidence is very strong that seasonal forecasting is possible but only in terms of probability there is strong evidence that interdecadel regional variability is very important, hence my contrast between recent CET changes and changes in global temperature. Of course, this makes verification a much more complex business.