I think it is better than PWS. When I read a LRF I like to see reasons [this site provides some] for the conclusions. This helps me to judge how much merit a forecast is likely to have.

Just had a quick look at the GFS 6z op run, and that's the sort of thing I like to see in Sept WRT colder winter weather. Yes, I know many people here strongly disagree, and don't think there is a link between September weather patterns and the following winter.

The annual Norwegian 'pig forecasters' have told their forecasts for the winter

Their forecast for Norway which may or may not affect the UK: Temperatures below normal with a cold winter.

One quote: "if you thought last year saw some low temperatures, just wait for this winter because you haven't seen anything yet".

What temps did you get down to last year Mike - around the -40°C mark?

Spot on Nick; -40c was the coldest here. Official record is -45.0c whilst the locals have reported -50c by the lake.

I am leaning to another drier but colder than average winter...

It's all coming back now! You had very little snow for periods of the winter, but absolutely freezing temps.

I'd love that! I love snow, but deep cold is my "thing".

Can you recommend anywhere in Norway for a winter holiday? Any cheap (for Norway) self catering accommodation? I'd love to take the family... once I've convinced them to take a break from the cold NE climate by moving to an even colder more NE climate.

Cold/High pressure over norway, precip pushing up against it,  = SNOW here!!!  

Happy days!

Personally, i think dry and cold here.  But i'll take warmer and snowy any day. 

 LLTNP 105m asl 

It's been a few days now since i had a look at the CFS charts and the biggest change appears to be for November and December with the Deep blue patches 75% replaced by light blue paches 35% for November and more aless the same for December

A dryer Autumn than average still looks like been on the cards

3 Monthly charts

Brutal and record breaking cold predicted this winter.

http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/forecaster-predicts-brutal-uk-winter-weather-for-2011-2012/

All these stories seem to be coming from the same source - James Madden.

Whilst I definately agree with the broad thrust of what he says, i.e. weak periods of solar activity seem to coincide with cold or severe northern European winters, there is a danger in assuming every winter within this period will be cold or severe, which isn't the case at all.

Still too early to be certain yet, it will make James look very silly if this winter turns out to be an average one at best.

Indeed. I think I heard that Simon Keeling is going for a mild winter.

Although the weather of course doesn't have a memory I think a milder December is due.

If I were taking a punt I would go against a signal for early snow (could be a good dry frosty spell pre Xmas) and think that it wont be until after Christmas that snow in any significant amount will arrive for the UK. I think winter 2011/12 will deliver snow for the UK but it will be more of a slow burner early doors than last year.

My guess

October - wet and windy - temps around average.

November - wet and windy again, becoming drier and frosty towards the end, but no snow.

December - more frost and fog early on, more changable and a little milder just before Christmas with rain. Big change just after Christmas with snow.

Far as I would go.

What I would say though, is that if the solar theory is correct, even the mild(er) winters should contain some pretty pokey cold snaps/spells at reasonably regular intervals.

The kind of 1990's complete write off from November to April type winters should be extremely rare indeed.

My Guess,

October - Below average percipitation for the Northern Half Above average for south, temperatures either on the average or below

November - On the average for percipitation nationwide, with temperatures around the seasonal average maybe slightly above in some areas, frost and fog becoming more common.

December - Below average percipitation for all, temperatures around the average maybe just above for some. frost and fog becoming more lasting into the morning for some Snow at times.

Talking of James Madden, he has updated his website again and has given a little more detail on how he expects the winter to unfold;

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

The worst part of the winter is predicted to be November to January (no mention of February) with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England getting it the worst.

Take that with a huge pinch of salt, if he's a forecaster then why doesn't he go to February? last time I looked February was a winter month.

Unless people are getting confused as to what Winter he is talking about.

Heres Simons (early) thoughts from back in July;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiKGF14Dahc&feature=related

No idea if he still has the same view of winter 11/12 and keep in mind even he admits he is at odds with his fellow WeatherOnline forecasters.

In fairness James says " I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures". It's just the heaviest snowfalls are predicted from November to January!!

I've no problem with that

I think he could be right. Several sources have predicted that this winter will be more severe than last winter. snowfall tp startat the begnning of November. November December and January wwould be seen by some as winter. February as late winter early spring

Heres Simons (early) thoughts from back in July;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiKGF14Dahc&feature=related

No idea if he still has the same view of winter 11/12 and keep in mind even he admits he is at odds with his fellow WeatherOnline forecasters.

Originally Posted by: the converted 

He was using CFS charts from July.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

The CFS charts continue to show below normal precipitation from October to December. Confidence on a Cold November and December has also dropped from 75% a few weeks ago to only 35% in some areas, Scotland has now gone normal for December from below normal.

Also worth noting Southern Europe stays above normal temperature wise through to November, so those heading there for winter sun could be in for some decent weather.

Edit

Been looking at the Nino anomalies charts, do they give any indication as to what Winter may have in store?

I still have a feeling we're going to see a much more zonal winter than in recent years - though I'm sure still with some cold and snow and not yet a repeat of '88/'89.   Time will tell.