The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

LeedsLad123
05 September 2011 16:03:56

I have talked about November and December yesterday in this thread when i posted an update , if you look at the monthly charts some places are on the average for temperature for the 2 months stated above most are just below.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Looks more than 'just below', especially for Nov-Dec-Jan. Only Feb-Mar-Apr stands out, but that is taking two Spring months into consideration too.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
hedgehog4
05 September 2011 16:41:14
Don't forget, there is no use just looking at one CFS model, you need to look at the overall probability one for the best bet.

The probability chart at the moment is saying a freezing November and December, a slightly below average January in some parts of the UK, a average or above average February leading on to a mild Spring

Brian Gaze
05 September 2011 17:42:05

No signal according to the latest IRI charts.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2011/aug2011/DJF12_Eur_temp.html

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
05 September 2011 17:47:18

No signal according to the latest IRI charts.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2011/aug2011/DJF12_Eur_temp.html

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

What does that chart mean for the UK? never saw that before.

Brian Gaze
05 September 2011 17:51:26

No signal according to the latest IRI charts.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2011/aug2011/DJF12_Eur_temp.html

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

What does that chart mean for the UK? never saw that before.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

For the UK that chart is saying there is no statistical bias towards a cold, mild or average winter. Essentially it means that the latest IRI model run is saying all options are equally likely.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
05 September 2011 17:56:16

No signal according to the latest IRI charts.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2011/aug2011/DJF12_Eur_temp.html

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

What does that chart mean for the UK? never saw that before.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

For the UK that chart is saying there is no statistical bias towards a cold, mild or average winter. Essentially it means that the latest IRI model run is saying all options are equally likely.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Thanks Brian.

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
05 September 2011 18:54:05

Positive Weather Solutions are going for a largely Dry October and Cold November, temps above normal for most of October below for November. 

Originally Posted by: John S2 

 

That bunch focus more on blonde hair and good looks than weather forecasting... 

Originally Posted by: beanoir 

If I read a LRF I expect to be provided with some methodology - ie reasons for tthe conclusions. If no reasons are given, it is difficult to judge how likely the predicted outcome is.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Postive Weather Solutions first view of winter

 

 Winter 2011/12 - Spring 2012

 

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire.

 

These projections are for 'general expected theme' only and should not be considered as anything further than conjecture by the PWS System, as the usual formula for seasonal forecasting is not being used because of the lack of current 2011 data which is incorporated into the equation nearer the season. 

 

Unless stated, averages apply nationwide for UK and Eire.

  

December 2011

 

On the average or a touch colder.

 

Generally drier than average bar South West England, Wales, Midlands.

 

White Christmas:  37%

 

January 2012

 

Colder than average generally especially early to mid month.  Significantly colder than average for Scotland, Northern Ireland, North East England, Eastern England.

 

Drier than average for many areas, bar Scotland, Northern Ireland, North East England, Eastern England.

 

February 2012

 

Colder than average. Especially early month to mid month.

 

Wetter than average for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England.

 

March 2012

 

Warmer than average for SE/SW/Central England, Wales.  Slightly warmer than the average elsewhere.

 

Wetter than average for the SW England, Wales.

 

 

Serena Skye

Contributing Weather Forecaster

Tuesday September 6th 2011

 

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
06 September 2011 07:22:09

Not sure if this has been posted already so apolgies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Kingston Upon Thames
Gavin D
06 September 2011 08:30:38

Not sure if this has been posted already so apologies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Yes it has and if you believe that then you'll believe anything, i'd take that with a huge pinch of salt.

John p
06 September 2011 08:49:14

No signal according to the latest IRI charts.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2011/aug2011/DJF12_Eur_temp.html

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Each year, those IRI charts prove themselves to be utterly pointless, I'm not sure why they even get any air time.

Does Roeder still do forecasts?  I found them quite interesting.

Camberley, Surrey
LeedsLad123
06 September 2011 08:51:19

Not sure if this has been posted already so apologies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes it has and if you believe that then you'll believe anything, i'd take that with a huge pinch of salt.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Same with all LRF's and chocolate teapot charts.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Younger Dryas
06 September 2011 09:08:53

Not sure if this has been posted already so apolgies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Still on track

beanoir
06 September 2011 09:17:12

Not sure if this has been posted already so apologies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes it has and if you believe that then you'll believe anything, i'd take that with a huge pinch of salt.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

 

Why's that? 

As least Exacta back up their forecasts with some science, unlike that twoddle you posted up from PWS yesterday that doesn't provide any reson behind their forecast whatsoever. 

Or is it just because you simply don't like the sound of that particular forecast...?

 

 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Sevendust
06 September 2011 09:44:06

Not sure if this has been posted already so apologies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: beanoir 

Yes it has and if you believe that then you'll believe anything, i'd take that with a huge pinch of salt.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Why's that? 

As least Exacta back up their forecasts with some science, unlike that twoddle you posted up from PWS yesterday that doesn't provide any reson behind their forecast whatsoever. 

Or is it just because you simply don't like the sound of that particular forecast...?

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Harsh!

"Backed up by science" & "twoddle"........unfortunately it doesn't matter whichever is true. LRF's are liking pxssing in the wind. I or anyone else from Moomin to the Meto can produce a LRF which could be spot on. If it was correct that would be due to a huge slice of luck. Maybe not entirely, but largely. 

Despite PWS'sor Exactaweathers capacity to produce sensationalist nonsense, they could be right. We won't know until verification. Mind you, they'd probably claim it was correct whatever

nsrobins
06 September 2011 09:49:45

I'm not getting involved in any discussion about the coming winter until I've heard from the sage - Tom Presutti

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

nsrobins
06 September 2011 10:07:43

Not sure if this has been posted already so apologies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: beanoir 

Yes it has and if you believe that then you'll believe anything, i'd take that with a huge pinch of salt.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Why's that? 

As least Exacta back up their forecasts with some science,

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

'Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption'

Umm. Doesn't sound very scientific to me.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Sevendust
06 September 2011 10:20:12

I'm not getting involved in any discussion about the coming winter until I've heard from the sage - Tom Presutti

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Indeed.....although YD is his agent

beanoir
06 September 2011 10:52:14

Not sure if this has been posted already so apologies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Yes it has and if you believe that then you'll believe anything, i'd take that with a huge pinch of salt.

Originally Posted by: beanoir 

 

Why's that? 

As least Exacta back up their forecasts with some science, unlike that twoddle you posted up from PWS yesterday that doesn't provide any reson behind their forecast whatsoever. 

Or is it just because you simply don't like the sound of that particular forecast...?

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Harsh!

"Backed up by science" & "twoddle"........unfortunately it doesn't matter whichever is true. LRF's are liking pxssing in the wind. I or anyone else from Moomin to the Meto can produce a LRF which could be spot on. If it was correct that would be due to a huge slice of luck. Maybe not entirely, but largely. 

Despite PWS'sor Exactaweathers capacity to produce sensationalist nonsense, they could be right. We won't know until verification. Mind you, they'd probably claim it was correct whatever

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

I couldn't agree more, and I don't hang my hat on either of their (or any other would be LRFer's) forecasts.  But I do like to read and try to understand methodology if and when a LRFer uses a bit of science (such as reduced polar activity etc) to back up their forecast, at least they're having a go at justifying it - rather than posting a forecast with as much to back it up as a bed time fairy tale.   

Harsh maybe, but I wasn't the one claiming that one LRF should br taken with a pinch of salt a day after posting another LRF that was even more wishy washy. 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Gavin D
06 September 2011 11:20:28

Not sure if this has been posted already so apologies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Originally Posted by: beanoir 

Yes it has and if you believe that then you'll believe anything, i'd take that with a huge pinch of salt.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Why's that? 

As least Exacta back up their forecasts with some science, unlike that twoddle you posted up from PWS yesterday that doesn't provide any reson behind their forecast whatsoever. 

Or is it just because you simply don't like the sound of that particular forecast...?

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Anyone can produce a forecast but the fact there first one was issued way back in June does make you wonder how it can be correct, let's face it one site (not this one) issued a summer forecast in May and failed at it badly, so it goes to show just how quickly the weather changes.

Gusty
06 September 2011 12:49:52

I'm not getting involved in any discussion about the coming winter until I've heard from the sage - Tom Presutti

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

You don't need to wait Neil. Tom gave his LRF for this winter back in 2007.

2011/12 is the start of the Polar Presutti Winters.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



moomin75
06 September 2011 13:00:42

Not sure if this has been posted already so apologies if duplicate but there has been a recent update from Exacta:

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Yes it has and if you believe that then you'll believe anything, i'd take that with a huge pinch of salt.

Originally Posted by: beanoir 

 

Why's that? 

As least Exacta back up their forecasts with some science, unlike that twoddle you posted up from PWS yesterday that doesn't provide any reson behind their forecast whatsoever. 

Or is it just because you simply don't like the sound of that particular forecast...?

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Harsh!

"Backed up by science" & "twoddle"........unfortunately it doesn't matter whichever is true. LRF's are liking pxssing in the wind. I or anyone else from Moomin to the Meto can produce a LRF which could be spot on. If it was correct that would be due to a huge slice of luck. Maybe not entirely, but largely. 

Despite PWS'sor Exactaweathers capacity to produce sensationalist nonsense, they could be right. We won't know until verification. Mind you, they'd probably claim it was correct whatever

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Absolutely spot-on. I will be producing another winter LRF (simply because I enjoy doing them)....whether I'm right or wrong has little to do with science and more to do with luck!!!

Incidentally, early hints are, I don't expect this winter to be a repeat of the previous few....but there will be some excitement at some stage throughout the winter.

 

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Jonesy
06 September 2011 13:15:18

I'm not getting involved in any discussion about the coming winter until I've heard from the sage - Tom Presutti

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

You don't need to wait Neil. Tom gave his LRF for this winter back in 2007.

2011/12 is the start of the Polar Presutti Winters.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

You better make sure you got enough film left on that tape Steve

Looks like your going to be in for a busy time this Winter, Perhaps 2 forecasts a week and plenty of "Ciao for Now" going on

P.S Could you not also have your own little Video Thread in the NEW SUB FORUM section Photos/Videos?

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !

Younger Dryas
06 September 2011 15:31:27

Very deep La Nina looking likely now:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

Colder than last year's event

westv
06 September 2011 15:36:31

I'm not getting involved in any discussion about the coming winter until I've heard from the sage - Tom Presutti

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Where is Tom now? The man the met office fears!

Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

Gavin D
06 September 2011 15:40:09

Very deep La Nina looking likely now:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

Colder than last year's event

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

On the other hand these charts arn't as deep.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images1/nino12SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images1/nino4SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/nino4SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino4SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images1/nino12SSTSea.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images1/nino4SSTSea.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/nino4SSTSea.gif

Remove ads from site