Not quite sure where my head lies with this. As the username would suggest, I'd like there to be plenty of Snow. However, Although the last 3 or so winters have been a little colder than average (hardly on a par with the so called 'severe winters' of the past), I'm not sure (given the fact it hasn't happend before) that a 4th one would be on the way. Doubt keeps creeping in and I keep being drawn to the 87 summer and the winter that followed Then of course, the 'polar presutti' winter is nigh

I remember a few years back when we were due a 'Hale winter' - I think Waterspout championed it?  Well, we're now well past that.  The only way is, er, up .....

I think an 87 style winter will be hard to repeat but you never know, I expect December, January and February all to be mostly dominated by High pressure and fairly dry conditions, the best chance for snow will most likely be the usual suspect areas, Scotland and maybe the North East everywhere else it could well be a pleasant winter.

Interesting article here on the Record Cold Spell of 1987: How It All Started

Shame Pete doesn't post here any more. I used to enjoy the frequent graphs and stuff, even if they were quite contraversial

Winter 09/10 was the coldest UK winter since 78/79 and the coldest since 1963 for Scotland.

December 2010, as we know, was the coldest CET since 1890 and another .2c would have been the coldest on record back to 1659.

We have actually been through a pretty exceptionally cold period, but as we know, that doesn't automatically mean feet and feet of snow for everyone.

Well said Gavin. 😄

I think CFS has definately picked up on an emerging La Nina signal. Indeed, La Nina is already beginning to take shape in the ENSO region;

http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

However, the extent of the La Nina is still open to question. CFS says it will become a strong event by mid winter, but my own view is that its over-doing and a weak to moderate event is more likely.

Assuming CFS is over-estimating this La Nina event, you have to consider that a lot of the weather patterns its forecasting mayneed re-adjustment as well.

Patterns have changed in recent years and a new period of colder weather is now upon us.

A few lrf'ers here are going for very cold and my prediction is for a very cold winter.

I think for Norway then yes probably 8 out of 10 winters are severe over there, but for the UK it is certainly not set in stone, we will wait and see as I remember last year we were talking about the wet and windy November and then BANG things changed so quickly when winter arrived for a month, so I think for Britain its' the waiting game, for Norway and Scandinavia it's almost guaranteed.

And Feb 2010 was one of the mildest on record, though most seem keen to forget this fact    It wasn't such a cold winter - taken as a whole - as some want to beleive. 

But, I'm sure somewhere will be cold and snowy this winter.    Godthaab sounds a good bet

I suspect last years La Nina saved the UK from a very cold Winter. In late December we saw a switch in the Jet, which often buckles in our part of the world when a decent La Nina is established. 

It was 1.3°C below average overall which is chilly enough.

February was 1.9° above average and December was 5.0 below. January was near average - just a little below. Overall a cold winter would be a fair assessment even if it did end on and relatively snowless note.

Edit: Naturally I cannot count and therefore I am of course discussing an entirely different year 😛

February 2010 was one of the mildest on record? What the? It certainly wasn't. February 2010 had a mean temperature of 1.2C here, with a mean minimum temperature of -1C and a mean maximum temperature of 3C, so yes, it was a cold winter overall with all winter months colder than average.

February 2010

It was a cold month with mean temperatures 1.0 to 2.0 °C below the 1971-2000 normal over England and Wales, and 2.0 to 2.5 °C below over Scotland and Northern Ireland. It was the coldest February over the UK since 1991.

A maximum temperature of 13.3 °C was recorded on 24th at Porthmadog (Gwynnedd). A minimum temperature of -19.2 °C was recorded on 23rd at Braemar (Aberdeenshire).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2010/february.html

I meant Feb 2011.  I think.  I get confused which year it is these days.  It's all this mucking about in time machines in order to forecast tomorrow's weather

I'd hedge my bets on an early winter again this year, and potentially similar levels of precip (probably as snow). 

I'm so confident in fact, that I bought myself a collapsable snow shovel for the boot of the car when they finally restocked them in B&Q this summer!! ;)

Positive Weather Solutions are going for a largely Dry October and Cold November, temps above normal for most of October below for November.

PWS continues to predict a fairly typical mid and end of autumn overall, with wet and unsettled periods – notably at first – before drier and perhaps colder stretches then take hold.

By October, Atlantic depressions will begin losing some of the influence they have held on British weather since May and, as the month progresses, anticyclonic conditions seem likely to become ever more prevalent, with an increasing prospect of some dry and largely sunny episodes, perhaps of several days’ duration. Where this happens night temperatures will be cold and the risk of fog patches overnight and into the next day increases.

As we move through the middle of the period a disturbed spell of repeated wet and windy episodes looks likely before drier conditions return to affect the UK and Ireland during late November. Precipitation for the two months would on balance appear likely to approach the long-term norm or be slightly in deficit. Temperatures will also be about average, probably above for most during October and below during November – especially towards the end.

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

That bunch focus more on blonde hair and good looks than weather forecasting... 

If I read a LRF I expect to be provided with some methodology - ie reasons for tthe conclusions. If no reasons are given, it is difficult to judge how likely the predicted outcome is.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbSea.gif

The latest CFS 3 month seasonal temperature forecast for the winter months Dec-Feb shows a higher probability of negative anomalies over most of Europe including most of  the UK,and at best normal levels.There are currently no positive  temperature anomalies.

However  a better clue to the nature of the winter may lie with the precipitation charts (link above).These show a large area of dryer than normal conditions stretching with the strongest anomalies from Northwest Russia and Finland and then dryer than normal through Scandinavia and into the UK.This lack of precipitation suggests higher pressure than normal in all of these areas.However it also suggest that the main area of HP would be situated in the far north east of Europe with a seperate area of HP in the mid Atlantic(Ireland looks on the dry side)

.In this scenario the UK would alternate between HP over and to the wdest of the UK introducing some clear cold weather but with a lot of rather cloudy northwesterly flow.There could be incursions of colder air frm the continent but given the likelihood of the main HP being to the far northeast very often these airflows would be S Easterly or southerly ie not from the coldest direction.

Indeed roger things are shaping up to disappoint many cold fans whilst also pleasing those of us who don't like extreme cold, of course cold periods are inevitable but last years winter may not be repeated this winter, if we look at the 3 month temperature charts you can't help but look at February to April, well above normal

That seems very much like last winter to me... 

So you notice February but ignore November and December. Looking like a repeat of last year which is fine to me, aslong as the entire winter isn't dominated by zonal trash.

I have talked about November and December yesterday in this thread when i posted an update , if you look at the monthly charts some places are on the average for temperature for the 2 months stated above most are just below.