Prospects for winter 2011/12· Page 12

The Weather Outlook

polarwind
Advanced Member

30 August 2011 17:05:13

With September NWP models looking to be unsettled and not too anomalously warm, I wonder if Gaze mild winter hints will take a knock?

Originally Posted by: John S2

No, because there is no connection between September weather and the following winter. Mild or cold winters can follow settled or unsettled Septembers.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

The connection might not be strong, but I believe it exists. Septembers where the general circulation pattern could be described as anticyclonic southwesterly are more likely to be followed by mild winters than cyclonic Septembers. This cannot be considered a 'rule', but it would be a factor I would take into account if making a LRF guess/prediction.

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf

A cyclonic September followed by a similar October, 40 odd years ago, was according to leading climatologists one of the best indicators of a cold winter to follow.

The weather of the last 25 years or so, has been different with a jetstream way north in these parts but the jet has gone south again in a big way too. Watch out for a cyclonic cold September and October and then place your bets

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Dave,Derby

Jiries
Advanced Member

30 August 2011 17:38:58

#277

Both December and January were dry here actually. Only 19 mm of rain in December and around 33 mm in January, both of which were very sunny in these parts.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123

I will be watching that to see how many sunny days being counted for Autumn and Winter which I expected more than what we have this summer.

NickR
Advanced Member

30 August 2011 17:40:40

#278

Both December and January were dry here actually. Only 19 mm of rain in December and around 33 mm in January, both of which were very sunny in these parts.

Originally Posted by: Jiries

I will be watching that to see how many sunny days being counted for Autumn and Winter which I expected more than what we have this summer.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123

Of course, such days only have to manage 8 hours of sun by your standards, Jiries - summer days have more like 18 hours to get through without a cloud to qualify as a "proper" sunny day. So it's a pretty false comparison TBH.

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Brummie Snowman
Guest

30 August 2011 19:52:23

#279

When was the last time there were two consecutive winters with a sub zero CET month?

We missed out on a heavy snowfall last December here, whilst other places got hammered. It would be nice if this year was our turn.

Global Warming
Guest

30 August 2011 20:18:44

#280

When was the last time there were two consecutive winters with a sub zero CET month?

We missed out on a heavy snowfall last December here, whilst other places got hammered. It would be nice if this year was our turn.

Originally Posted by: Brummie Snowman

It has never happened!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There are a couple of examples where there was a gap of two years but never consecutive years.

Edited by user 30 August 2011 20:21:36 | Reason: Not specified

Essan
Advanced Member

30 August 2011 20:23:46

#281

Originally Posted by: Global Warming

It has never happened!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There are a couple of examples where there was a gap of two years but never consecutive years.

Originally Posted by: Brummie Snowman

Always a first time!

I would never say never. But my current feeling is that whilst we will have a notable cold spell this winter, it will not be as severe as last winter. And be balanced out even more than last winter was by a notable mild spell.

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

sunnyhighpressure
Guest

30 August 2011 20:39:00

#282

Ok, so what winters had all months below 0 cet?

Any places experience sub zero temperatures for a whole month?

Out of interest, does Paris get colder cets than the uk or france on the whole?

sunnyhighpressure
Guest

30 August 2011 20:45:11

#283

What amazed me about December 2010, not just the cold or snow, but the lack of rain! I don't think we got any? We might have got a little at the very end when it got a bit milder to new year. Maybe sleet was the closest we got? Anyone not receive any rain?

Global Warming
Guest

30 August 2011 20:45:34

#284

Ok, so what winters had all months below 0 cet?

Any places experience sub zero temperatures for a whole month?

Out of interest, does Paris get colder cets than the uk or france on the whole?

Originally Posted by: sunnyhighpressure

Again never happened! There are 4 years where 2 of the winter months had negative CET's (always consecutive months).

Essan
Advanced Member

30 August 2011 20:59:08

#285

Originally Posted by: sunnyhighpressure

We had rain at the end of the month. And no sleet or snow at all in Jan or Feb. Which is almost as remarkable.

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

LeedsLad123
Advanced Member

30 August 2011 22:00:26

#286

Originally Posted by: sunnyhighpressure

I recorded around 19 mm in December, so yes very dry for a winter month in the UK. It was alsy very sunny, for me nothing beats waking up in the morning to see crystal clear skies and a perfect frost.. especially over the past 5 years crystal clear skies aren't very common in summer!

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

NickR
Advanced Member

30 August 2011 22:16:05

#287

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123

Originally Posted by: sunnyhighpressure

I don't actually recall any rain - just snow - but I'd have to check my records.

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Jiries
Advanced Member

30 August 2011 22:22:40

#288

Both December and January were dry here actually. Only 19 mm of rain in December and around 33 mm in January, both of which were very sunny in these parts.

Originally Posted by: NickR

I will be watching that to see how many sunny days being counted for Autumn and Winter which I expected more than what we have this summer.

Originally Posted by: Jiries

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123

You can work it out if we have 2 sunny days in Dec which give 8 x 2 make 16 hours so that would be 1 sunny day in the summer. So if we have 10 sunny days in Dec it would equal 5 sunny days in June.

I just wish we can can get sunny days at any temps, it doesn't have to be compulsory and restricted to hot days, I am sure in New Zealand they get sunny days at any temps.

LeedsLad123
Advanced Member

30 August 2011 22:29:56

#289

Both December and January were dry here actually. Only 19 mm of rain in December and around 33 mm in January, both of which were very sunny in these parts.

Originally Posted by: Jiries

I will be watching that to see how many sunny days being counted for Autumn and Winter which I expected more than what we have this summer.

Originally Posted by: NickR

Originally Posted by: Jiries

You can work it out if we have 2 sunny days in Dec which give 8 x 2 make 16 hours so that would be 1 sunny day in the summer. So if we have 10 sunny days in Dec it would equal 5 sunny days in June.

I just wish we can can get sunny days at any temps, it doesn't have to be compulsory and restricted to hot days, I am sure in New Zealand they get sunny days at any temps.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123

New Zealand is surprisingly cloudy actually. Auckland manages 2,060 hours of sun annually but that only peaks at 229 hours in January, similar to Eastbourne or Scilly Isles.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

Lionel Hutz
Advanced Member

31 August 2011 08:09:14

#290

New Zealand is surprisingly cloudy actually. Auckland manages 2,060 hours of sun annually but that only peaks at 229 hours in January, similar to Eastbourne or Scilly Isles.

That would still make Auckland quite a bit sunnier, though, when you take into account the shorter hours of daylight available at Auckland's latitude. Further South in NZ I would imagine there's little to choose in sunshine hours between us and them.

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL

roger63
Advanced Member Topic Starter

31 August 2011 08:12:47

#291

Originally Posted by: Global Warming

It has never happened!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There are a couple of examples where there was a gap of two years but never consecutive years.

Originally Posted by: Brummie Snowman

Nearest consecutive years I can find are;

Jan 1940 -1.4,Jan 1941 0.5,

Jan 1879 -0.7,Jan1880 0.9,Jan 1881 -1.5

Jan 1814 -2.9,J AN 1815 0.3.

Jan 1694 0,Jan 1695 -1

Jan 1684-3,jan 1685 0.5

Joe Bloggs
Guest

31 August 2011 08:41:59

#292

Originally Posted by: NickR

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123

I don't actually recall any rain - just snow - but I'd have to check my records.

Originally Posted by: sunnyhighpressure

No rain, just snow, in an entire month?! Pretty impressive for the UK.

roger63
Advanced Member Topic Starter

31 August 2011 08:45:26

#293

[quote=nouska;196065]You can get the CFS charts for France (includes most of England) on Meteociel. Latest update on 28/08 shows a big low over W Iberia for December so drier and cooler is indicated.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs.php?mois=12&annee=2011[/quote]

Nouska thanks for the link.Two comments.

The tables which show temerature anomalie sfor recent daily runs bounce around all over the place from day to day.

You have to be careful in reading the pressure anomalies. An anomaly of 3 to 4 mb in December does not change the normal overall pressure distribution which would still have HP of around 1020 mb west of Iberia and LP close to Iceland

nouska
Advanced Member

31 August 2011 09:43:09

#294

Nouska thanks for the link.Two comments.

The tables which show temerature anomalie sfor recent daily runs bounce around all over the place from day to day.

Originally Posted by: roger63

Yes, Roger. I know that the charts have huge daily swings and it's unlikely that any one pattern would predominate over a month - the reply was to MVH, who mentioned what the long range CFS charts were showing on Netwether's subscription service. Seems each site has a different formula for interpreting the data as there is so much variance on what each update portrays. We know it's not to be taken as gospel but that will never stop the fun or enthusiasm of being an armchair weather detective. Is there a 'get a life' smiley on here lol.

Essan
Advanced Member

31 August 2011 10:10:45

#295

I think this is the earliest I've officially posted any thoughts about winter!

Down in Australia it's been Canberra's warmest winter - I doubt we'll get quite the same here this winter but I don't expect it to be nearly so cold (or snowy) as the start of last winter was and I think we'll have a fair bit of milder stuff than normal. I don't think we'll see a complete return to mild, wild, wet, westerlies, but I wouldn't be counting on long lasting snow and ice in the West Highlands this winter.