A mild Winter is what we need now after 3 cold ones and many wash out Summers the only problem with a mild winter certainly early on is the day's are so sort you hardly feel the benefit, once late January and February arrives then that's when the benefits are felt better as the day's slowly get longer.

I bet those cold and snow fans are crossing their fingers the CFS charts are wrong as certainly February looks mild to say the least 

At this early stage there's around a 35% chance of above average precipitation during the 3 months of March, April and May, but there's the same 35% chance of above average temperatures, so maybe a warm and wet spring. 

No, not really. A cold December would do me good. February is totally irrelevant for me as there hasn't been a cold February here for a long time.

But I do think it's about time we get a reminder of how cold February can be. Or maybe March? 

With respect Gavin.
No we dont need a mild winter Gavin.
Nature is based on having decent cold winters/or a good severe cold spell.
Its far better for nature, kills bugs etc.

Also Gavin, winter is not based around Jan and Feb as we releasied this winter just gone.
Personally I think we are better off with a 2/3 week severe spell of weather then average or whatever nature brings us. I hate those will it wont it winters where nothing much happens.
Also personally I wouldnt give a t*** if Jan and Feb are warm if we get a good cold December, having said that we missed out down here in reagrds to the really cold stuff, not saying it wasnt cold but!!!!!

Positive Weather Solutions long range forecast pretty much goes with the CFS charts so far,

Remainder of autumn: from wet to dry

PWS continues to predict a fairly typical mid and end of autumn overall, with wet and unsettled periods – notably at first – before drier and perhaps colder stretches then take hold.

By October, the jet-stream will be influencing throughout: a breezy succession of bands of rain and clearer passages with showers. However, as the month progresses anticyclonic conditions seem likely to become ever more prevalent, with an increasing prospect of some dry and largely sunny days, especially for southern regions, interspersed with more unsettled and occasionally wet periods.

As we move through November we are beginning to see increased indications for more recurrent drier conditions affecting the UK and Ireland. Precipitation for the two months would on balance appear likely to be around the long-term norm. Temperatures will also be about average, probably above for most during October and below during November – especially towards the end.

Ray Anthony

Chief Assistant Forecaster

Saturday August 27th 2011

Certainly looks like late November will be Cold or Very Cold.

1) A mild winter overall (I know many people disagree with this)
2) A sharp or severe cold outbreak within ~6 weeks

Other indicators are the usual suspects - October dry and warm, solar activity, anomalous warmth / cold during the preceding 12 months or so, recent winters, ENSO etc. Probability is a factor too (again many won't like this), 3 successive cold winters increases (not decreases) the chance of the next one being cold. Imagine you are throwing a weighted coin...for 20 years successive years it lands heads, so you'd reasonably conclude the odds of a landing a head are higher than a tail. So on the 21st year you'd start off by thinking there's a higher probability of another head. Likewise, 3 tails on the bounce, and you'd start to increasingly think something in the weighting of the coin had changed, and the chance of another tail would be higher. This is applicable to the weather because the weather isn't 'random', it just appears that way because of lack of data and understanding of the current starting position. So if you were issuing a winter lrf now, and you were purely guessing (ignoring all other available information) this would be a better than average year to guess cold. Much better actually.

FWIW, some of the local amateur lrf'ers here are beginning to indicate a very cold winter for much of Norway. No indication on ppn but it would generally follow that it would be drier than normal which has been very much the pattern in the last 3 winters or so.

I have hit -40c in the last 2 years and so maybe we could be looking at mid minus 40s. Snowfall, though always substantial, has trended lower in the last couple of years as a result.

Interesting.

Here is JMA for Sept-Nov:-

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/4mE/fcst/fcst_gl.html

So in General you expect a mid winter in General? If so that's perfect with the cost of Gas now

Now A sharp or severe cold outbreak within ~6 weeks is that within 6 weeks of today or at some point during winter ie November?

Given the weak ENSO,weak sunspot activity.inconclusive SST's then the influence of Autumn conditions(Autumn is the sesaon most closely correalted with the follwing winter) will be particularly important.

Th emost strongly correlated weather type is  the dry warm autumn is highly likely to be followd by a warmer tahn average winter.So if this is the final(but I think unlikely outcome), thenI  shall certainly change  my current view from a below average to an  above average winter.

Gavin...

You shouldn't take literally what people say or the maps on display as all lrfs are very basic guides. I'm sure you know that of course and although Brian does have a fairly good record wrt lrfs, even he would not be able to give you such detail at this range.

I'm not taking it literally, at least Brain got this summers LRF pretty much right, I was just enquiring as to which month he thinks maybe the coldest

Hi Folks , I think it's simply too early to be able to predict with any amount of certainty what this winter will hold.

One thing I will say is that if it ends up mild, it's likely to be quite stormy, which is always fun.

If it ends up cold than we can possibly all enjoy some snow (as long as its wet and cold).

Personally the only thing I really hope DOESN'T happen, is that it's cold and dry all winter, or bog standard average.

I'm leaning towards a mix of all the above which would be just fine thankyou  :)

If and it's a big if the CFS charts are somewhere near they are now we could be looking at a repeat of last Winter. A very cold end to November lasting into December before becoming drier and warm through Jan and Feb progress. Very early stages yet though.

I don't have a view at the moment. I'm convinced a lot of lrf'ers decide what they think the winter will be like in summer, and then spend the next 6 months making the 'evidence' fit their favoured outcome. My approach is to be like a sponge until mid-October. In other words I listen to what people are saying, look at the NWP constantly, look at the long range models, look at temperature trends and patterns, look at recent weather patterns etc, ENSO, NAO etc and try to absorb all this information. I'll usually then start weighing things up and put out an initial view in mid-October, either to the press if they're interested, or directly to this site. Then in mid-November I'll start firming up my views for the release of the full TWO winter forecast in late November.

Thanks Brian.

It won't be a good sign if a repeat next winter which mean hot Spring will follow and then another poor summer.  It best if we have some real cold in Jan or Feb and return to cooler Spring with normal April showers.

That would be the best outcome I think.

I for one am very much looking forward to this sites Winter forecast, and can completley understand why one would want to wait until Mid November to formulate a winter forecast

The problem with LRF's is that it's simply too hard to make a prediction with any amount of certainty when looking more than a few months in advance, the best one can do at this stage is give an indication based on the CURRENT set up, pattern, anomoly's , trends, etc etc etc.

As we all know one slight change in any one of a number of factors influencing our weather can and sometimes will, have a domino effect on other factors, and the end result (i.e what we end up experiencing) can be completely different from what had looked to be ''on the cards'' or ''likely'' just a month before (or in extreme cases just a week before).

I have great sympathy for those who stick their necks on the line , if they get it right their hailed as a weather forecasting god ,but ridiculed if their forecats go wrong.

so good luck with the winter forecast when it comes out, but we have a nice stormy autumn to get through first :)

The latest CFS charts continue to show that a dry Autum is looking very likely now for many Areas only Western England, Parts of Wales and Northern Ireland are above during September

September is near normal for all but parts of Western England, Parts of Wales and Northern Ireland, October, November and December is below average for many areas some areas that arn't below are on the Average. Janurary contnues the below average look for all but Scotland, Feburary average for all



As for temperatures well, September continues to look like it will be a below average month for all, October is below average for all but Northern England and Scotland (for a change), November is looking very cold for all as per last year, December looks slightly warmer than November but still cold, January is below average for Northern England and Scotland above or average everywhere elese, February is above for all,



The 3 month look at the percipitation confirms a below average Autumn and Winter,



The 3 month look at the temps confirms the the temperatures from Januray through to May are well above for all, so a cold end to the year but becoming warmer as we head into January and 2012 (Hopefully)

These CFS charts are crap and are not to be trusted especially, at this range.

The CFS predictions seem to indicate that the progression of the atmosphere will slow right down as we go through the winter, with the resultant lack of zonal conditions and (ergo Atlantic attacks) leading to a dry winter overall, perhaps even one of the driest on record...?

That's also a good scenario for getting snowy breakdowns to cold weather albeit only small amounts of precipitation

When it comes to trends regarding the atmospheric setup through time, CFS has proven to be of some use to me at the 3-4 month range. Details often seem to change quite dramitcally, however.

Crap like what crap.
They are used for trends not a perfect forcast.
If studied over a period of time one can see movements or a steady confirming nearer the time of a type of pattern.
Come on Duane, you cant just make a statement like that as an overall sweeping comment.

well the jury is out, if autumn turns out to be dry, it will likely be due to blocking being in place, with LP systems enroaching from the altantic, and beeing shunted North of the UK, due to HP being close to the UK or even over the UK keeping us on the whloe dry

If that trend continues into winter then it's likely we'll see a cold but relativley dry winter.

So my point is that the precipitation charts, and temperture anomolys seem to be at odds with each other, and it's then that one can see why temperatures, and snow fall in NW Europe is of interest to us, if NW Europe turns out to be milder than everage the effect of blocking wont bring such deep cold pooling this winter as we have seen recently, if the opposite is true and NW Europe is colder and wetter than normal, than this will increase our chances of tapping into it, but that's only going to really have a big effect on us if blocking continues...at least that's my take on it ?

I think it's also quite important that if blocking does take place, that it's due to HP systems being in the rght place, if HP gets centered over the UK, then that's pants for snow potential, if it ends up just to the North and West of the UK, I think that's about the best position to allow weather to com from the North and East ???

The more i try to get my head around it all the more confused I get ..so apologys if im talking complete rubbish..i'm still new to all this and learning

Some have said this summer that the effects of NAO/AO/PDO on the N Hemisphere atmospheric pattern are better understood/more straightforward in winter than they are in summer.

Perhaps this is reflected in the ability of CFS to predict the broad scenario in winter when compared to in summer; it was rather good for (at least part of) last winter but poor for nearly all of this summer. Obviously that tendency needs to be noted across numerous years before it can be considered to really exist - anyone viewed the output for several years now who can remember how the performance has varied?