Just a quick question as I am not on the ball with publication of these charts.
How often are they produced.

Every 2 day's they are updated.

With September NWP models looking to be unsettled and not too anomalously warm, I wonder if Gaze mild winter hints will take a knock?

I recall looking at the forecast accuracy graphs which support this - the winter pattern is generally more predictable than the summer one, presumably because the jetstream is more dominant in winter.  I think the same applies to the southern hemisphere forecast accuracy, IIRC.

No, because there is no connection between September weather and the following winter. Mild or cold winters can follow settled or unsettled Septembers.

Yesterday's update has brought very little change with October, November and December all below average for precipitation for almost everywhere, January is below for all but Scotland and February is on the average.

As for temperatures there's also very little change with September to December below average for all except Scotland in October, January is below average for Scotland, Northern England and Ireland everywhere else is Normal, February is above normal for everyone.

I think a dry Autumn and Winter is looking on the cards, this could cause drought problems next year if we struggle to get sufficient rain fall over this period

"A mild winter overall (I know many people disagree with this)"

Just looking back at some weather records and in 1962 the hottest day of the year was in September, and we all know what followed in winter, much like September 2006 was the warmest on record, followed by a mild winter.

There have been no mild winter hints at all from me.

 Increased solar activity may well reduce the chances of colder weather this winter.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted

 Could be a Bartlett / Eurotrash dominated winter? 1988 came after a run of mostly colder winters too.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted

mild winter on the cards

Hopefully

The connection might not be strong, but I believe it exists. Septembers where the general circulation pattern could be described as anticyclonic southwesterly are more likely to be followed by mild winters than cyclonic Septembers. This cannot be considered a 'rule', but it would be a factor I would take into account if making a LRF guess/prediction.

I'll have to immigrate then.

mild winter on the cards

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

I'll have to immigrate then.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Why where do you live now?

Originally Posted by: sriram 

I must immgirate from the UK, I can't bear another zonal trash winter!

Bring it on the milder the better

Interesting final line from Philip Avery today in the BBC Monthly weather forecast

Next week

After what seems like many weeks of autumnal weather in the summer, might we see some summer weather as we move into the autumn? Surely that can't be it, can it?

Are the BBC /Met Office giving the first hint's of a Mild Dry Autumn? Wouldn't be surprised with what the CFS charts have been showing, the Energy companies will be fuming if this happens there plans of high profits could go down the toilet.

I'll be keen to follow the deep LP systems that look for all intensive purposes to be sweeping in off the atlantic after this week is out, and seeing if they do indeed take a more southerly or northerly route across the UK and then seeing if this has a correlation on the coming winter.

I have noticed that thus far this year (for the most part) the LP systems that have fed in to the UK from the immediate west have weakened before they get to the UK, and have veered off to take a NW'sterly route, clipping Scotland, and some have taken a route to Iceland, and spun themselves out of energy...is this what blocking does ???

Lp that has encorached from the SW and Bay of Biscay area has for the most part tracked along the channel, and Northern France, clipping the south East, moved up the North Sea, and into Norway ??

So the bulk of the UK has pretty much been sandwiched in between, and perhaps this is why many areas have seen a large amount of dry conditions at least for the first half of the summer ???

Like I have said in a few previous posts im NO expert, im just relaying what I think I have seen :)

I'm noticing a change taking place though, at last in terms of what the GFS is predicting, in that the deep LP systems look as if they might not be taking the NW route, of Channel route, and instead passing over the middle of the country, will be intersting to see if this does come to pass, and then even more interesting to see if there IS  acorrelation come winter.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs.php?mois=12&annee=2011 

Hopefully, can't be doing with last years snow amounts again.

December 2010 was very dry here with only 8 days of rain and 4 of those were minimal 0.3mm

Both December and January were dry here actually. Only 19 mm of rain in December and around 33 mm in January, both of which were very sunny in these parts.