Well I still hope we see no snow here until Jan - simply for the novelty value of having a whole calendar year without snowfall  

Given this summer has been different to recent years (August esp.) then I see no reason at this stage to suppose next winter will be a repeat of last.

It would be good if we got at least one major snow event this winter.For those of us close to the south coast the maximum snow depth was only around 3 inches last December.I'm still kicking myself that I didn't head up north during last December to see deep lying snow.

What we have not seen in the last thrree winters is snow accompanied by reallly strong winds.Even if it only lasts for a week I'd  love to see a full scale blizzard with huge snow drifts at some stage in Winter 2011/12.

Amazing to think that roughly 3 Months from now we will be at the same time of Year that produced the first widespread Snow in 2010. Time goes fast doesn't it !!...Still 1/4 Year away though

I walked back into work today after a lovely Week off and guess what was on my desk?...A Christmas Menu   then this caused a discussion about our last Christmas Doo which was a White out with Snow ( Thurs 2nd Dec 2010 )

I'll put the Question to you, like i did them....

Q: If you could choose 2 Heavy Widespread Snowfall Events would you want them before Christmas again like Last Year ( SE Remained Snow Free after Christmas ), or 2 events after Christmas or 1 either side? NONE AT ALL is NOT and option !!!

I think what made last year seem so bad for many was 2 Heavy Snowfall eventsalmost a week/two apart, If they were spread out I don't think Winter 2010 would of had the same impact in terms of discussion.

Here in east Leeds, there was no snow in late December, just very cold with a permanent rime frost. I would rather have snow after Christmas, in February, that way winter wouldn't feel like such a let down if it started cold and ended mild, for example. Just the way the human mind works I guess. 

Beijing updated for August and here is the Dec-Feb pressure forecast;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L4.GIF

Basically ridging in the Atlantic and troughing over Scandinavia. Very snowey for Nodic regions and into central/eastern europe. For us, I think we'd be constantly alternating between northerly and westerly winds.

Model updates from September onwards will be more significant, IMO.

Latest CFS Updates,

Anyone get the feeling December will be our coldest month again with Janurary and February been warmer than normal.

Gavin how would you see the resulting CET panning out from a mixture of westerlies and northerlies?

Probably near normal with great variation both ways tending to cancel each other out.

Thanks for the posts Gavin, looking at the charts if I'm reading it right that is almost an identical pattern to what happened last winter and spring? i.e. cold December and then a warm to average Jan - Feb followed by a warm spring?

I agree i'd settle for more a less the same as last winter a bit less snow and not as extreme temperatures would be better, but other than that a cold start followed by a warmer than average Jan and Feb follwed by a warm spring, that would be suite me fine.

hmmm, the UK is due a reminder of just how cold February can be I think.

A very unscientific post this, but I'll say it anyway.

I've just had a quick look through the NWP for past couple of months over on wetterzentrale, and pressure has been pretty high to our north and west for almost the whole summer, on and off of course.

Obviously there is no way of telling whether this will continue through the winter months, it may well not. But assuming we continue to be stuck in this blocking rut then I see no reason why we won't be at risk of yet more cold and snow once we get into the winter period.

I don't believe in random probability with our weather, I believe in trends and patterns, and as far as I can tell, we are still in a notable blocking phase.

I have to take my summer tyres home  when I change to winter tyres. I may be leaving it later this year

.... and what do you mean by that exactly Tom?

So are we to take it the Met thinks the cold will be later on in the winter this time, rather than front loaded?

I have been looking at the jetstream charts for several months and forecasts for the next couple of weeks and imo, the polar vortex has expanded as the more meridional jetstream has persisted. Does anyone have any views as to how this might affect winter conditions if these anomalies continue?

Isn't this coming winter supposed to be the first Polar Presutti one? Hopefully Tom will make an appearance in this thread soon.

If he does it'll be his first visit since 11th Feb this year.

I feel like Darren S

This coming winter - A cold one.

I'll leave it to Gary this year, he is working with the Met O this Autumn

Highs to the north and west give the UK more cold air to contend with/work with.

That's part of the reason why calm conditions have often given chilly nights this summer; the 850's have been below average as they mix with colder air being subtley fed into the mix by the blocking highs.

Amazing! Will have to meet up with him for a pint (to get some inside goss) 😂

Anyone seen this?

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 "I therefore expect the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was in 2010 for the vast majority of this winter. It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. "