The Weather Outlook

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Alun
  • Alun
  • Advanced Member
23 August 2011 14:15:22

Anyone seen this?

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

 "I therefore expect the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was in 2010 for the vast majority of this winter. It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. " 

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 

 

Yep, Brian did on Page 2...

Exacta Weather going for a big freeze it seems.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 


Alun,

Home: Strood, Rochester, Kent - 69M ASL

Work: Currently N/A...

western100
24 August 2011 21:21:49

Basic pattern matching over the last 3 years , this year seems to fall relatively close to previous 3 years leading up to winter. This summer like last year has been similar, simialar set ups, similar temperatures (nothing extreme), been pretty dry tho in comparison. Very little rain here since march really.

 


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

X…..@Weather4u2

llamedos
24 August 2011 21:30:25

Isn't this coming winter supposed to be the first Polar Presutti one? Hopefully Tom will make an appearance in this thread soon.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

If he does it'll be his first visit since 11th Feb this year.

 

I feel like Darren S

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 Have you told Darren about your feelings?


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

picturesareme
24 August 2011 21:33:39

Last winter was pants for cold & snow.... one very significant cold snap lead to sub zero maxes and laying snow but this lasted only couple of days.

Hopefully this winter will deliver more but i suspect it will be be a mild one with plenty of rain around.

RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
24 August 2011 22:35:17

I'd take a cold November and December again with snow on the ground on Xmas Day as was last year than a slightly cold winter but with rain around. February could be mild again for all I care, last year was magical with the depths and icicles on the big day even if no snow actually fell!


Winter 23/24 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)

Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21

Days Snow Lying: 8

Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)

Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6

Days Snow Lying: 6

Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27

Days Snow Lying: 24

Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)

Gavin P
25 August 2011 08:38:08

Last winter was pants for cold

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Yes, it was only the coldest December since 1890 and just 0.2c milder than the coldest December in the entire CET series dating back to 1659.


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Maunder Minimum
25 August 2011 09:02:39

This coming winter - A cold one.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

The ENSO signal would appear to favour a cold start and a mild end, like last winter.


New world order coming.
Snow Wolf
25 August 2011 09:12:57

LOL at this thread! We get an autumn thread started yesterday and a day later its winter

Anyway, agree with Moomin

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 Blimey that makes a change someone agreeing with me!

I must be going soft in my old age!

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Where's Moomin's winter forecast???

Snow Wolf
25 August 2011 09:24:07

Looks like another re-run of last year with a cold November / December milding up as we head into Jan / Feb

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

moomin75
25 August 2011 09:53:10

LOL at this thread! We get an autumn thread started yesterday and a day later its winter

Anyway, agree with Moomin

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

 Blimey that makes a change someone agreeing with me!

I must be going soft in my old age!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Where's Moomin's winter forecast???

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Don't worry Snow Wolf, I will produce one as normal.....Just a tad too early at the moment!


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Jonesy
25 August 2011 10:02:09

Looks like another re-run of last year with a cold November / December milding up as we head into Jan / Feb

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

I wouldn't mind that aslong as it doesn't mess up the run up to Christmas.

Last Year was a shock to the system because up till the first Snowfall it wasn't too bad then BANG freezing and Snow around for almost a Month !!!...After Christmas last year we hardly got a frost


Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !

hedgehog4
25 August 2011 19:57:28

Its kind of weird as to how many Forecasters are forecasting a cold winter already yet it is only August. 

25 August 2011 20:41:12
oh my this can't be good after december for cold lovers!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif  stronger la nina and runs are going off the chart? If I am correct that the lower the minuses, the stronger the la nina?

Younger Dryas
25 August 2011 21:23:43

Looks like another re-run of last year with a cold November / December milding up as we head into Jan / Feb

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Which we would take given a choice of that or an average winter. However, it wasn't so good for the SE last year as we know. I was lucky in being in the north of the UK in the week leading up to Christmas and therefore got to experience the deep cold that didn't really fully get a grip down here during that time period.

If we had a re-run of last year with slightly warmer in Cumbria / Northern Ireland and slightly colder in the SE, I am sure there would be no complaints in here (except the inevitable ones from the (majority of?) people on here who don't actually like cold weather in winter even though they say that they want to see it)

Gavin P
25 August 2011 21:26:34

oh my this can't be good after december for cold lovers!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif stronger la nina and runs are going off the chart? If I am correct that the lower the minuses, the stronger the la nina?

Originally Posted by: sunnyhighpressure 

My own view is still that CFS is over-doing this and it'll be a far weaker La Nina than predicted, but we'll see.


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Brian Gaze
25 August 2011 21:40:32

Which we would take given a choice of that or an average winter. However, it wasn't so good for the SE last year as we know. I was lucky in being in the north of the UK in the week leading up to Christmas and therefore got to experience the deep cold that didn't really fully get a grip down here during that time period.

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

I don't want to go over the same ground again YD, but it would be better to say "However, it wasn't so good for PARTS OF the SE last year as we know". As I noted at the time, we had a lot of snow here, and it lasted up to Xmas. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Younger Dryas
25 August 2011 21:48:16

Which we would take given a choice of that or an average winter. However, it wasn't so good for the SE last year as we know. I was lucky in being in the north of the UK in the week leading up to Christmas and therefore got to experience the deep cold that didn't really fully get a grip down here during that time period.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I don't want to go over the same ground again YD, but it would be better to say "However, it wasn't so good for PARTS OF the SE last year as we know". As I noted at the time, we had a lot of snow here, and it lasted up to Xmas. 

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

Agree completely. I was meaning more London and to the south of it, though even here I believe there was some snow that stayed around for quite a few days. I am in agreement with you - I'm just saying that the far SE getting some snow that then thawed over a few days wasn't as good (from this point of view) as the days of deep powder, sub -5c maxima and rime on the telephone lines that northern parts got

Jiries
25 August 2011 22:08:06

Which we would take given a choice of that or an average winter. However, it wasn't so good for the SE last year as we know. I was lucky in being in the north of the UK in the week leading up to Christmas and therefore got to experience the deep cold that didn't really fully get a grip down here during that time period.

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

I don't want to go over the same ground again YD, but it would be better to say "However, it wasn't so good for PARTS OF the SE last year as we know". As I noted at the time, we had a lot of snow here, and it lasted up to Xmas. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Agree completely. I was meaning more London and to the south of it, though even here I believe there was some snow that stayed around for quite a few days. I am in agreement with you - I'm just saying that the far SE getting some snow that then thawed over a few days wasn't as good (from this point of view) as the days of deep powder, sub -5c maxima and rime on the telephone lines that northern parts got

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

Agreed and don't want to remember last Dec at all, was very painful to see the deep cold missed my area completely full time, only 1 night was cold enough but forced me to get up at 3am to see it before the uneccessary cloud came up and sent the temps back to above 0C by 9am as if nothing cold happened overnight.  I rather go for mild winter to avoid this pain.

LeedsLad123
26 August 2011 01:11:26

Which we would take given a choice of that or an average winter. However, it wasn't so good for the SE last year as we know. I was lucky in being in the north of the UK in the week leading up to Christmas and therefore got to experience the deep cold that didn't really fully get a grip down here during that time period.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I don't want to go over the same ground again YD, but it would be better to say "However, it wasn't so good for PARTS OF the SE last year as we know". As I noted at the time, we had a lot of snow here, and it lasted up to Xmas. 

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

Agree completely. I was meaning more London and to the south of it, though even here I believe there was some snow that stayed around for quite a few days. I am in agreement with you - I'm just saying that the far SE getting some snow that then thawed over a few days wasn't as good (from this point of view) as the days of deep powder, sub -5c maxima and rime on the telephone lines that northern parts got

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Agreed and don't want to remember last Dec at all, was very painful to see the deep cold missed my area completely full time, only 1 night was cold enough but forced me to get up at 3am to see it before the uneccessary cloud came up and sent the temps back to above 0C by 9am as if nothing cold happened overnight.  I rather go for mild winter to avoid this pain.

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

December was an absolutely amazing month for the majority of people in the UK. I understand you though, December 2010 was a dull month in the South East but the sunniest on record in Northern Ireland and very, very sunny here, day after day of clear skies, frost, snow.. absolutely amazing, no mild winter will ever deliver that.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Jiries
26 August 2011 07:58:15

Which we would take given a choice of that or an average winter. However, it wasn't so good for the SE last year as we know. I was lucky in being in the north of the UK in the week leading up to Christmas and therefore got to experience the deep cold that didn't really fully get a grip down here during that time period.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

I don't want to go over the same ground again YD, but it would be better to say "However, it wasn't so good for PARTS OF the SE last year as we know". As I noted at the time, we had a lot of snow here, and it lasted up to Xmas. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Agree completely. I was meaning more London and to the south of it, though even here I believe there was some snow that stayed around for quite a few days. I am in agreement with you - I'm just saying that the far SE getting some snow that then thawed over a few days wasn't as good (from this point of view) as the days of deep powder, sub -5c maxima and rime on the telephone lines that northern parts got

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

Agreed and don't want to remember last Dec at all, was very painful to see the deep cold missed my area completely full time, only 1 night was cold enough but forced me to get up at 3am to see it before the uneccessary cloud came up and sent the temps back to above 0C by 9am as if nothing cold happened overnight.  I rather go for mild winter to avoid this pain.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

December was an absolutely amazing month for the majority of people in the UK. I understand you though, December 2010 was a dull month in the South East but the sunniest on record in Northern Ireland and very, very sunny here, day after day of clear skies, frost, snow.. absolutely amazing, no mild winter will ever deliver that.

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

I remember that well in the 85-87 winters in Boston Spa, near Wetherby, when we had lot of snow it always sunny afterward which failed to deliver in the SE.  I had got amount of snow cover in Decbut the clouds wouldn't let me record snow surface temps which could had been below -20C and estimated -15C air temps on Xmas day and estimated around -16 to -17C on 20th Dec if wasn't the clouds arrived.  Did you had a chance to record snow surface temps since you have lot of sunny days.   I used the old Brannon max and min thermometer as I worried the electronic sensors may go off from being too cold.

Here the first spot of snowcover in far east:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif 

 

polarwind
26 August 2011 08:09:49
Yes, saw that yesterday. A tad early?
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Dave,Derby

NickR
26 August 2011 08:14:50
Anyone been looking forward to winter ever since it was obvious this summer was a write-off (up here in the North, anyway - i.e., mid July)?
Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Jiries
26 August 2011 08:23:17

Yes, saw that yesterday. A tad early?

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

It look normal to see patchy snow cover for late August and sea ice would stop melting in early September and re-form again as the sun will disappeared on 21st September in the arctic regions.

LeedsLad123
26 August 2011 08:32:09

Which we would take given a choice of that or an average winter. However, it wasn't so good for the SE last year as we know. I was lucky in being in the north of the UK in the week leading up to Christmas and therefore got to experience the deep cold that didn't really fully get a grip down here during that time period.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I don't want to go over the same ground again YD, but it would be better to say "However, it wasn't so good for PARTS OF the SE last year as we know". As I noted at the time, we had a lot of snow here, and it lasted up to Xmas. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Agree completely. I was meaning more London and to the south of it, though even here I believe there was some snow that stayed around for quite a few days. I am in agreement with you - I'm just saying that the far SE getting some snow that then thawed over a few days wasn't as good (from this point of view) as the days of deep powder, sub -5c maxima and rime on the telephone lines that northern parts got

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Agreed and don't want to remember last Dec at all, was very painful to see the deep cold missed my area completely full time, only 1 night was cold enough but forced me to get up at 3am to see it before the uneccessary cloud came up and sent the temps back to above 0C by 9am as if nothing cold happened overnight.  I rather go for mild winter to avoid this pain.

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

December was an absolutely amazing month for the majority of people in the UK. I understand you though, December 2010 was a dull month in the South East but the sunniest on record in Northern Ireland and very, very sunny here, day after day of clear skies, frost, snow.. absolutely amazing, no mild winter will ever deliver that.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I remember that well in the 85-87 winters in Boston Spa, near Wetherby, when we had lot of snow it always sunny afterward which failed to deliver in the SE.  I had got amount of snow cover in Decbut the clouds wouldn't let me record snow surface temps which could had been below -20C and estimated -15C air temps on Xmas day and estimated around -16 to -17C on 20th Dec if wasn't the clouds arrived.  Did you had a chance to record snow surface temps since you have lot of sunny days.   I used the old Brannon max and min thermometer as I worried the electronic sensors may go off from being too cold.

Here the first spot of snowcover in far east:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif 

 

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

Sadly I didn't, but I'm guessing values well below -20C could have occurred, would have been interesting to see what the snow surface temperature was at Topcliffe, North Yorkshire when it recorded -19c


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
LeedsLad123
26 August 2011 08:33:11

Yes, saw that yesterday. A tad early?

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

They do it every year on Net Weather


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

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