Just out of interest I've produced these figures which show the mean temperature across September, October and November in the middle row and the mean temperature across the following December, January and February in the bottom row, these being for my own location.

The mildest Autumn was followed by the mildest winter, agreeing with the point made by Roger above. Then, however, we can see that the second mildest winter followed on from the third coldest Autumn here. The coldest Autumn did lead to the third coldest winter, however, this being a pretty chilly one at that, mostly due to that extraordinary December of 2010. The coldest winter of all followed a middle-ground Autumn, suggesting little of much worth.

Obviously, the data source is way too small and locallised to be able to determine the existence or not of a pattern that is fairly weak on the much wider scale. At least the strong relationship between very mild Autumns and mild winters is supported. Little insight can be offered regarding the relationships elsewhere, but this has been an interesting venture for me nonetheless

Currently Autumn looks cold according to a number of sources that I've seen over the past month or so (IRI for one: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2011/jul2011/images/SON11_Eur_temp.gif and then the CFS posted earlier for another) so the liklihood of a cold winter could be viewed to be higher than 50% on that regard alone. If only it were that simple.

Here is a chart classifying seasons according to a combination of wetness/dryness and warm/cold.It is based on years 1850-2005 using a classifcation developed by Lionel Smith  in his book "Seasonal Weather" and based on readings from Kew and later Heathrow (adjusted to Kew averages).Full details of classifcation sysyem are set out to right of the chart.

The chart shows that there is liitle link beween preceding seasons and the following winter except in infrequently occurring years.Th eeception is Autumn but here it is the wet dry criteria which is more important than the warm/cold.

The most reliable indicator for frequently occurring seasonal types is the combination of warm and dry which has 48 years in it and where 77% 0f the follwing winters were above average.

Although infrequent in ocurrence,7 out of  8 very cold,very wet summers produced below average winters.I'm not sure whether summer 2011 will fall in this group.

There's been a much higher occurence of high pressure located generally over Greenland in the past few years, which has obviously influenced our weather in across seasons at times (although not continuously).

I think the only conclusion I would draw is that if this propensity for blocking at more northen latitudes continues through the winter, it will give a greater chance of the UK being affected by cold and snowy weather.

Beyond that, we move toward crystal ball gazing.

What a farce!!! Most of Europe colder than average except the UK!!! Same old same old....pretty boring really, you see these similar forecasts every year!

CFS Seasonal T2m probability forecast:

Does anyone have the link where it shows the above or below average temperature anomaly!?

Sorry what a stupid comment to.
NOt the same old same old, I can remember some years with very little blue anywhere.
That doesnt mean that one of those months is still very cold.
A forecast for between 3-6 months plus away and you come out with the same old same old!!!!!!!

Like the Meto GloSea4 projections, you need to look at several runs in order to be able to determine any possible forecast. 

Which is why the media constantly get it wrong.  Remember last autumn when they told us it'd be a mild winter - because they didn't undertand the model output

What you have posted is the percentage probability charts, no sign of an orange or red pixel anywhere near the UK on the T2m anomaly charts.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mSea.gif 

Well I have to say based on those charts above, that must be "based on just these charts" that lookds like one of the most average winters for the whole of NW Europe, no blue, no orange, in fact I dont remember seeing anything like that quoted here before.

Well I have to say based on those charts above, that must be "based on just these charts" that lookds like one of the most average winters for the whole of NW Europe, no blue, no orange, in fact I dont remember seeing anything like that quoted here before.