The Weather Outlook

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Gandalf The White
22 July 2011 22:56:32

Prediction: There will be weather.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Wow, even Matty can't take issue with that.....

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



LeedsLad123
23 July 2011 01:03:33

If sunspots were at a record high, right now, and we were experiencing a record breaking hot summer then surely a LRF suggesting a milder winter would have some credence. Like wise a run of colder winters, low sunspot activity, and cool summers would suggest a very mild winter would be less likely. To me this kind of thinking does allow you to make an educated guess at future weather, be it summer or winter.

Now I really don't pay any attention to the detailed LRFs but a general theme based on the above type of thinking gives some credit to those attempting a general winter forecast.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Not sure why it allowing N America getting all the hot weather despite the low sunspot activity, because if that the case then cool poor summer should occur everywnere, not just the UK.

Originally Posted by: Chris 

 

Jiries I was simply, theoretically, using this scenario as an example for LRFs. I was not saying we have or will have certain types of weather. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Yes I know but when you mentioned solar stuff, it triggered me why it allowing such strong widespread heat over N America atm and not us? 

Originally Posted by: Chris 

Well, Toronto and Chicago both have humid continental climates, located in the middle of a massive continent where heat can build easily, summers are always hot there, and temperatures there at the moment, such as 42c at Newark, would be almost impossible here, 38c is pushing it alone, where as the UK is surrounded by mild waters, and for extreme heat here there almost always needs to be extreme heat in France also, at the moment France is also enduring a rather poor summer..

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
23 July 2011 05:36:51

Technically last winter was near average, I thought?

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I think it was well below average, though not quite as cold as 2009/10.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Sevendust
23 July 2011 08:35:41

Technically last winter was near average, I thought?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think it was well below average, though not quite as cold as 2009/10.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

The difference last winter was that the cold started in November rather than a third into December as in 09/10

Snow Hoper
23 July 2011 09:26:24

Technically last winter was near average, I thought?

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

I think it was well below average, though not quite as cold as 2009/10.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The difference last winter was that the cold started in November rather than a third into December as in 09/10

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Last winter was about 1.3C below average and the one before about 2C below IIRC

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Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Brian Gaze
23 July 2011 09:51:08

Technically last winter was near average, I thought?

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

I think it was well below average, though not quite as cold as 2009/10.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

The difference last winter was that the cold started in November rather than a third into December as in 09/10

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Last winter was about 1.3C below average and the one before about 2C below IIRC

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 Thanks - I couldn't remember the details.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Steam Fog
23 July 2011 10:29:10

Winter 2011 mean temperature anomaly

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/16/2011_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

Winter 2010 mean temperature anomaly 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/16/2010_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

Winter 2009 mean temperature anomaly

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/16/2009_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

Winter 2008 mean temperature anomaly

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2008/16/2008_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 July 2011 20:48:03

Next winter is an easy call IMO because historically we never get 4 cold winters in a row, not in the last 100 years anyway.

If this winter is cold then we really have seen a shift back to Maunder Minimum conditions but I doubt this will happen.

We could have an average winter but a cold one is very unlikely.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Andy an example of four cold winters (ie below average CET DJF) in a row.

1962 3.6,1963 -0.3,1964 3.5,1965 3.3.

Scandy 1050 MB
26 July 2011 07:25:45

If sunspots were at a record high, right now, and we were experiencing a record breaking hot summer then surely a LRF suggesting a milder winter would have some credence. Like wise a run of colder winters, low sunspot activity, and cool summers would suggest a very mild winter would be less likely. To me this kind of thinking does allow you to make an educated guess at future weather, be it summer or winter.

Now I really don't pay any attention to the detailed LRFs but a general theme based on the above type of thinking gives some credit to those attempting a general winter forecast.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Not sure why it allowing N America getting all the hot weather despite the low sunspot activity, because if that the case then cool poor summer should occur everywnere, not just the UK.

Originally Posted by: Chris 

 

Jiries I was simply, theoretically, using this scenario as an example for LRFs. I was not saying we have or will have certain types of weather. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Yes I know but when you mentioned solar stuff, it triggered me why it allowing such strong widespread heat over N America atm and not us? 

Originally Posted by: Chris 

Surely that's to do with the jetstream? I saw that the western side of North America is having a cool summer - varying solar input may have an effect on the jetstream. During active solar years the jet flows in such a way that seems to favour mild winters and hot summers here yet when we were having our mild winters that certainly wasn't the case in the US. Of course it's a lot more complicated than that and there are many other factors that come into play, however given the sudden change over the last few years combined with lower solar activity that would at the very least suggest some sort of a link.

Sevendust
26 July 2011 18:20:57

If sunspots were at a record high, right now, and we were experiencing a record breaking hot summer then surely a LRF suggesting a milder winter would have some credence. Like wise a run of colder winters, low sunspot activity, and cool summers would suggest a very mild winter would be less likely. To me this kind of thinking does allow you to make an educated guess at future weather, be it summer or winter.

Now I really don't pay any attention to the detailed LRFs but a general theme based on the above type of thinking gives some credit to those attempting a general winter forecast.

Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 

Not sure why it allowing N America getting all the hot weather despite the low sunspot activity, because if that the case then cool poor summer should occur everywnere, not just the UK.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

 

Jiries I was simply, theoretically, using this scenario as an example for LRFs. I was not saying we have or will have certain types of weather. 

Originally Posted by: Chris 

Yes I know but when you mentioned solar stuff, it triggered me why it allowing such strong widespread heat over N America atm and not us? 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Surely that's to do with the jetstream? I saw that the western side of North America is having a cool summer - varying solar input may have an effect on the jetstream. During active solar years the jet flows in such a way that seems to favour mild winters and hot summers here yet when we were having our mild winters that certainly wasn't the case in the US. Of course it's a lot more complicated than that and there are many other factors that come into play, however given the sudden change over the last few years combined with lower solar activity that would at the very least suggest some sort of a link.

Originally Posted by: Chris 

I would agree

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 July 2011 09:57:38

Re solar infuence conclusion of article by MIke Lockwood et al on solar influence on European winters.Key sentence "there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking  and the winter mean differs by several degrees between high and low -solar terciles" 

"We demonstrate that open solar flux (Fs, derivable from geomagnetic data) exhibits stronger correlations with atmospheric circulation variations than conventionally-used measures of solar activity. The circulation anomalies are particularly enhanced over the North Atlantic/Eurasian sector, where there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking and the winter mean surface temperature differs by several degrees between high- and low-solar terciles. The relationship is stronger and simpler for Fs, being more linear between high- and low-solar winters. While the circulation anomalies strongly resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation they also extend deeper into Eurasia, especially in high-solar conditions. This distinct signature may be useful for the detection and attribution of observed changes and also the identification of dynamical mechanisms."

polarwind
27 July 2011 16:22:51

Re solar infuence conclusion of article by MIke Lockwood et al on solar influence on European winters.Key sentence "there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking  and the winter mean differs by several degrees between high and low -solar terciles" 

"We demonstrate that open solar flux (Fs, derivable from geomagnetic data) exhibits stronger correlations with atmospheric circulation variations than conventionally-used measures of solar activity. The circulation anomalies are particularly enhanced over the North Atlantic/Eurasian sector, where there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking and the winter mean surface temperature differs by several degrees between high- and low-solar terciles. The relationship is stronger and simpler for Fs, being more linear between high- and low-solar winters. While the circulation anomalies strongly resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation they also extend deeper into Eurasia, especially in high-solar conditions. This distinct signature may be useful for the detection and attribution of observed changes and also the identification of dynamical mechanisms."

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Yep. All associated with and demonstrated by the jet stream in our parts at least, behaving strangely by and large, for up to say, three years.

And it's still behaving strangely with no signs that I can see, of it changing anytime soon.

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roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 August 2011 08:22:38

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Latest seasonal maps -NOAA continuing to show cold autumn and early winter for Europe and UK.If anything trend is moving towards cold.

Solar Cycles
03 August 2011 10:14:48

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Latest seasonal maps -NOAA continuing to show cold autumn and early winter for Europe and UK.If anything trend is moving towards cold.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

I expect those to turn more blue in the months ahead. For me a strong signal is emerging for another cold winter.

Essan
03 August 2011 10:59:25

Why do I have this feeling that Spring will arrive even earlier in 2012 ..... ?  

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

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Solar Cycles
03 August 2011 11:11:03

Why do I have this feeling that Spring will arrive even earlier in 2012 ..... ?  

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Maybe not as early as the previous two Andy, ENSO conditions are forecast to be more neutral/weak nina throughout the coming winter. I think this winter will see a more prolonged cold spell than the last one, of course having said that we will now see a Bartlett dominated winter and a cold spring. 

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 August 2011 09:50:22

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.7.7.2011.gif

Latest SST's. I am not an axpert on the interpretation of these.However the belt cold water persists across ther Atalantic from Newfoundland eastward.What might it mean for winter.?

JoeShmoe99
06 August 2011 10:39:25

With fuel prices through the roof and the economy in s**t street I think a large %age of the poulation would be more than happy with a mild winter

Including me

Matty H
06 August 2011 10:41:11

With fuel prices through the roof and the economy in s**t street I think a large %age of the poulation would be more than happy with a mild winter

Including me

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 

I'm certainly hoping for a mild winter. It'll have to come at the expense of a wet one too one would imagine, but I'd take that as well. We've had winters here in the not too distant past where we've only had the odd one or two frosts. That's what I'm hoping for this time around

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

DTHFCJ
06 August 2011 10:47:19

With fuel prices through the roof and the economy in s**t street I think a large %age of the poulation would be more than happy with a mild winter

Including me

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I'm certainly hoping for a mild winter. It'll have to come at the expense of a wet one too one would imagine, but I'd take that as well. We've had winters here in the not too distant past where we've only had the odd one or two frosts. That's what I'm hoping for this time around

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 

I agree with you Matty,and if that happens it "might" set up a good summer

Jiries
06 August 2011 10:49:22

With fuel prices through the roof and the economy in s**t street I think a large %age of the poulation would be more than happy with a mild winter

Including me

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I'm certainly hoping for a mild winter. It'll have to come at the expense of a wet one too one would imagine, but I'd take that as well. We've had winters here in the not too distant past where we've only had the odd one or two frosts. That's what I'm hoping for this time around

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 

Agreed and it will help to bring back proper summers with some occasional hot spells like before and to end the heat and dryness in Spring time.  I like the cold winter if provided snow every now and then with deep cold but rather not to have a cold winter with continuous cold rain, nothingless weather and 1 snowy event in whole winter time.  Thanks but no thanks, they can go away. 

future_is_orange
06 August 2011 10:51:23

With fuel prices through the roof and the economy in s**t street I think a large %age of the poulation would be more than happy with a mild winter

Including me

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I'm certainly hoping for a mild winter. It'll have to come at the expense of a wet one too one would imagine, but I'd take that as well. We've had winters here in the not too distant past where we've only had the odd one or two frosts. That's what I'm hoping for this time around

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 

Oh i certainly hope this year is a cold snowy one. We got the cold last winter in my location but precious little in the way of snow !!

Matty H
06 August 2011 10:53:07

With fuel prices through the roof and the economy in s**t street I think a large %age of the poulation would be more than happy with a mild winter

Including me

Originally Posted by: future_is_orange 

I'm certainly hoping for a mild winter. It'll have to come at the expense of a wet one too one would imagine, but I'd take that as well. We've had winters here in the not too distant past where we've only had the odd one or two frosts. That's what I'm hoping for this time around

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Oh i certainly hope this year is a cold snowy one. We got the cold last winter in my location but precious little in the way of snow !!

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 

Was similar here. We had two dustings last winter and that was it. Winter, the worst season in the UK, compounded by a lack of the ONLY thing that makes it remotely bearable. That's why I'd much rather just have a mild and damp one. We're kind of due one, so fingers crossed

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Gavin P
06 August 2011 10:59:02

It would be ironic if the winter was much milder than last winter, but had more days with snow falling for the majority of us.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

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Matty H
06 August 2011 10:59:43

It would be ironic if the winter was much milder than last winter, but had more days with snow falling for the majority of us.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I'd take that one, Gav

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

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