As posted in the Climate Forum:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

2010?

mild winters in this country usually mean zonal dross with days, weeks, months of rain and mist.. yuck

Originally Posted by: PK2 

And wind-storms, which bring their own interest. Although I'll freely admit they're probably just as disruptive to the general population as snow.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Why I don't like mild winters

http://bubl.ac.uk/org/tacit/tac/tac48/talesfro.htm

A foot of rain fell on me - and my ice axe, crampons and severe cold weather gear - that night

Now I really don't pay any attention to the detailed LRFs but a general theme based on the above type of thinking gives some credit to those attempting a general winter forecast.

Hope you're right, Chris. A mild winter would be a dream. I'd relish the whinging of a certain unnamed few on here if it were to happen  After the last few winters containing noteworthy cold spells, hopefully this winter will be a traditionally mild one  And for those who choose to whinge, I give you your own argument back about summer: If you want cold winters all winter then move to another country

I didn't say we'd have a mild winter  just general thoughts on LRFs in general, and that I think they can have some relevence in a very broad sense.

Anyway Tom P predicted 2012 to be "the" winter years ago so it looks like your going to have to get your scarf, hat and gloves out come December

I was playing the role of YD: Picking out personally favourable words and scenarios and using them to my advantage and preference

Not sure why it allowing N America getting all the hot weather despite the low sunspot activity, because if that the case then cool poor summer should occur everywnere, not just the UK.

Dont have a clue what this winter will be like and dont care..hate it...if i could live down under when we get winter id be gone quicker than the postman seen leaving my house on several occasions with a red face and his name aint pat

http://youtu.be/yiKGF14Dahc

mild winters in this country usually mean zonal dross with days, weeks, months of rain and mist.. yuck

Originally Posted by: Essan 

And wind-storms, which bring their own interest. Although I'll freely admit they're probably just as disruptive to the general population as snow.

Originally Posted by: PK2 

Why I don't like mild winters

http://bubl.ac.uk/org/tacit/tac/tac48/talesfro.htm

A foot of rain fell on me - and my ice axe, crampons and severe cold weather gear - that night

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Yes, I've been in a similar situation in the Cuillin. We set off from Slig in about 20cms of level snow that had fallen overnight to meet up with some mates at the bothy at Coruisk for a birthday party. This was early November, so the snow at sea level was quite early. Everything was iced up under the snow, it was a nightmare hike. In the end we had to turn back and decided to console ourselves with a few drams by the fire at the slig hotel (the nice bit). My boot laces were iced up when we got to the hotel, had to thaw them out to get them undone.

So, headed off home and woke up the next day to wet, wet, wet. It had rained all night, and a very rapid thaw took place. When my mates finally got out of Coruisk they told us of the nightmare journey, and basically got soaked with all their ice gear. How the weather changed from frozen to mild!

Ah, the West Highlands weather......fond memories of very changeable weather day. No harm was done in the end though 

To keep on thread, no idea about this winter.....time will tell.

[quote=Matty H;181360]

Hope you're right, Chris. A mild winter would be a dream. I'd relish the whinging of a certain unnamed few on here if it were to happen

Rubbish!  You just want lots and lots and lots more snow!  We know your true colours

I see, I can do that with letters 

aoiryourshdgc

chris your a god 

thanks Matty, I didn't know you cared 

I agree with that Matty.

We're not a Continental climate so the same rules apply in winter as they do summer. Both extremes in temps are rare, however, can occur if the right conditions allow.

Very true, but this won't stop us from wanting certain extremes occuring, since our own climate can be rather dull and un-eventful. All we can do is pray and hope the up coming winter is NOT mild, or I shall have to take a holiday to Sweden 

Yes but some poster think that having cool and unsettled weather all the time in summer will allow cold winter, which does not work and I feel that Toronto and Oak Lawn still get very cold winter despite getting 38C temps recently.  You can have 14-18C cold unsettled summer days but you still get almost the same in winter months by seeing 13-15C on very mild days.  That would be very boring for a weather observers.

This shows a La Nina value of around -1.6 October 2010 to January 2010.The best fit forecast October  11- jan 12 is around -1.2 so not as strong as last year and current  NOAA forecast going for a much weaker La Nina.Does  anybne know what is the normal lag in months between strongest La Nina  values in the southern Oceans and onto north atlantic winter circulation?

Next winter is an easy call IMO because historically we never get 4 cold winters in a row, not in the last 100 years anyway.

If this winter is cold then we really have seen a shift back to Maunder Minimum conditions but I doubt this will happen.

We could have an average winter but a cold one is very unlikely.

Andy

Jiries I was simply, theoretically, using this scenario as an example for LRFs. I was not saying we have or will have certain types of weather. 

just to put a different spin on 'probability'.... If we *never* get 4 cold winters in a row, then don't you think it's about time we did?

I think nov/dec will be as cold as last year with an average/boring jan/feb. But then weather is so capable of throwing a few surprises, so don't lock thos sledges away yet!

In all fariness the winter of 2008/2009 was not very cold here, just one notable snowfall in February, the rest of the month was average, if not, slightly above average.

Technically last winter was near average, I thought?

A deep-freeze December does not a cold winter make

Just watching us struggle to achieve even near average temperatures this July, despite sunshine levels not a long way from average, makes me wonder just how easy it would be to lose what little warmth we have attained so far this summer.

That said, you wouldn't bet against another dry Autumn thats warm until mid October, seeing as the nature of spring has managed to remain similar for yet another year running (2008 was an exception, aside from that we'd still be counting from spring 2007 as all the others have been warm, dry affairs) and with the summer displaying many similar tendancies too (namely the Azores high struggling to arrive from the southwest even when the Greenland high has finally taken a break).

To be fair you would think five poor summer on the trot would be pushing it.

Yes I know but when you mentioned solar stuff, it triggered me why it allowing such strong widespread heat over N America atm and not us?