Starting to wonder if I should switch on 'Autumn Mode' looking at the ECM 00z today...
The predicted storm is frankly ridiculous - not in terms of liklihood, but generally speaking. Seems less likely that this one will suddenly be progged to go north of us instead of across us.
Now, on to the subject at hand; I'm still keeping an eye on those CFS charts. Alas, their failiure to pick up on the tendancy for the Greenland High to hang on until about the 7th of the month (the anomaly prediction has had to go from neutral to slightly positive to account for this) has reduced by respect for them.
Nevertheless, the anomaly predicted for August has been consistent during the past 10 days, showing high pressure over and extending east of the UK:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif
Its going to take a lot to go wrong to drastically alter that setup. Unfortunately we've seen that happen a number of times in the past few years.
Still, the prediction is by far the most positive seen for any summer month this year. To me, it kind of feels like something that should happen, something that could well save the summer from being below par for many (if close to normal in the south). It fits nicely in with my expectations from April for a summer that is opposite to last year; June was the best last year and August the worst, this year June could be the worst and August the best. As far as I'm concerned, July has already had enough decent days to place it ahead of June in the rankings.
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