The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
06 October 2026 10:23:23

If a dry winter happens this time I should be expecting the water company to stop whining about it and start following other countries' examples with water rationing cuts like in Cyprus before and even in the Philippines during dry seasons.   This way will force those who keep wasting water like overwatered gardens, long showers and etc.  A cut at certain times will change their behaviour on water use.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Of course it will. It will also tank the economy in ways that are best not thought about. People we pay are thinking/planning how to cope in the worst-case scenario and it's scary. Just hope that the rains fall sooner. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Lionel Hutz
06 October 2026 13:01:53
The differences between England and Ireland really are extraordinary in terms of drought. Admittedly, we had a spell from mid June or so to late August which was bone dry and I only recorded 10mm or so during that period. I visited Oxfordshire mid August and there wasn't a whole lot of difference between home and there in terms of the landscape. However, we got good rainfall during the last week of August with above average rainfall in September(110mm here) and 37mm in one night right at the end of last month. A week into September, it looked as if we hadn't had a drought at all. By contrast, the drought seems to have never really ended over most of England. Judging from Johnms's posts, most of Scotland seems to be out of drought too and you can possibly put West Wales and perhaps Devon & Cornwall in that category as well. To compare rainfall figures between England and Ireland for September, you would think that there was an ocean between us and not just a relatively narrow sea.
Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Jiries
06 October 2026 14:43:31

Of course it will. It will also tank the economy in ways that are best not thought about. People we pay are thinking/planning how to cope in the worst-case scenario and it's scary. Just hope that the rains fall sooner. 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

i experienced that in Cyprus was no fun having to wait to use water for showers, washing machine and cleaning the house that need water.  The good thing in Cyprus we have water tank to use when it cut off but here God help as we don't have water tanks anymore since we have combi boiler so if we get water cut times it will be a problem.  

ozoneaurora
06 October 2026 14:54:47

Is Darren on holiday? Not seen any posts from him for a while.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

He could have accidentally locked himself out of this forum after 30 day break thing (although it shouldn't happen with a computer expert!). It happened with me after I had a 30 day break. Had to create a new forum account.

fairweather
06 October 2026 15:06:42
Just watched the Met Office video forecast for tomorrow. Saying rain is going to pep up and have forecast up to 50mm for exactly here tomorrow! That's a bit like forecasting 2 foot of snow for Torquay this winter! I'll believe it when I see it but I would be quite happy with 20mm. 😊
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Devonian
06 October 2026 16:33:03

The differences between England and Ireland really are extraordinary in terms of drought. Admittedly, we had a spell from mid June or so to late August which was bone dry and I only recorded 10mm or so during that period. I visited Oxfordshire mid August and there wasn't a whole lot of difference between home and there in terms of the landscape. However, we got good rainfall during the last week of August with above average rainfall in September(110mm here) and 37mm in one night right at the end of last month. A week into September, it looked as if we hadn't had a drought at all. By contrast, the drought seems to have never really ended over most of England. Judging from Johnms's posts, most of Scotland seems to be out of drought too and you can possibly put West Wales and perhaps Devon & Cornwall in that category as well. To compare rainfall figures between England and Ireland for September, you would think that there was an ocean between us and not just a relatively narrow sea.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

The drought is still serious in most of Devon (less so in Cornwall but not much less?). Here, (east of Dartmoor)  everything is fairly green but below a few inches of the top soil its dust for feet down.

Reservoirs east of Dartmoor are below 20% full - without serious rains soon it looks like only allowing water use for essential purposes is on the cards around Exeter. I rekon we need 500mm+ to get back to full aquifers and reservoirs. Time is running out for that - though it may well still happen.

The Beast from the East
07 October 2026 02:25:50

He could have accidentally locked himself out of this forum after 30 day break thing (although it shouldn't happen with a computer expert!). It happened with me after I had a 30 day break. Had to create a new forum account.

Originally Posted by: ozoneaurora 

I didnt know that.  Hope Brian is aware of this 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
07 October 2026 02:27:21
A lot of rain for SE England tomorrow as the  temperature contrast peps up the front as it moves east. 

Not quite a drought buster but very welcome.  Though perhaps surface flooding in time for evening rush hour in London


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Roger Parsons
07 October 2026 06:35:19

The drought is still serious in most of Devon (less so in Cornwall but not much less?). Here, (east of Dartmoor)  everything is fairly green but below a few inches of the top soil its dust for feet down.

Reservoirs east of Dartmoor are below 20% full - without serious rains soon it looks like only allowing water use for essential purposes is on the cards around Exeter. I rekon we need 500mm+ to get back to full aquifers and reservoirs. Time is running out for that - though it may well still happen.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

On the other hand... Lundy is dry.

Puffin island on cusp of closure as it runs out of water

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6jdv4vp3rl3o 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
07 October 2026 06:44:44
Looking at the current radar, it seems Lundy is a long way away from the rain that fell last night. 
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

johncs2016
08 October 2026 19:31:47
Here in Scotland, SEPA have just released this week's water scarcity report which can be viewed here .

It's probably rather ironic that I'm posting this in an evening in which it's currently raining here in Edinburgh as it has been since this afternoon. In the last week or so though, we haven't actually had all that much in the way of rainfall here. That is important because without any sustained rainfall, there can be no recovery whatsoever, in the overall water scarcity situation.

This week's report actually shows that up really well because as a result of there not being much rain during the last week, there isn't a single area which has had its water scarcity downgraded this week.

In one area of the Scottish Borders, there was a warning given out last week that without any sustained rainfall in the last week, that area was going to be at risk of having its status upgraded all the way back up to significant water scarcity status. That is what has now ended up happening in that area which is located in the far SE of the Borders, very close to the border with England. As a result, water extraction restrictions have also been imposed there once again.

In addition to that, there is another area in Aberdeenshire which has had its status upgraded from early warning status to alert status. Other than that though, there has been no other changes this week.

East Lothian and the rest of the Borders is still at moderate water scarcity status whilst Edinburgh along with a large part of eastern Scotland stretching through Fife, Tayside and Aberdeenshire are still at alert status. The Moray Firth area and two areas in central Scotland are still at early warning status with the rest of Scotland at normal status.

This message from this report is very clear though because whilst this evening's rainfall will be very welcome, we will need to be continuing to receive some further sustained rainfall from now on if we are see any further recovery in the overall water scarcity situation.

River levels continue to be low to very low in eastern Scotland in particular, and have even dropped a bit once again during the past week with the relative lack of rain during that period, although they are still fairly high in the west of Scotland.

Groundwater levels are also very low in the east, but around normal in SW Scotland and the north of Scotland.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 October 2026 22:18:35
The Times reports today that if rainfall remains 60% below average, then Ardingly reservoir, which serves 280,000 people in mid-Sussex, will run out of water in a month's time. 

Street standpipes and rota cuts are possible.


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Gandalf The White
12 October 2026 23:24:38

The Times reports today that if rainfall remains 60% below average, then Ardingly reservoir, which serves 280,000 people in mid-Sussex, will run out of water in a month's time. 

Street standpipes and rota cuts are possible.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I listened to an hour-long webinar today by the National Emergency Briefing people.  They had a professor of climate change as one of the presenters and she made the point I made a couple of days ago that this El Niño is unprecedented in the modern era (the last comparable one was in the 19th century) and coupled with the underlying climate change, the usual prediction of a wet and windy autumn could just be wrong; we’re in uncharted territory.

She also made the point that the world is now warming by 0.2c every eight years and El Niño is likely to push up temperatures by 0.2c next  year, so it will be a taste of conditions in around 2033-34. Of course by then we’re likely to see at least another El Niño.

Another contributor talked about the decline in crop yields here in the last 2-3 years and how vulnerable we are becoming to not just another bout of food price inflation but also shortages,


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



The Beast from the East
13 October 2026 01:46:29

The Times reports today that if rainfall remains 60% below average, then Ardingly reservoir, which serves 280,000 people in mid-Sussex, will run out of water in a month's time. 

Street standpipes and rota cuts are possible.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Why isnt this a mainstream news story?  This is the sort of thing that would directly affect people rather than abstract stuff from the middle east and Ukraine. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
13 October 2026 05:48:07
Unless you have a rain gauge, for many people, I suspect this autumn has been bog standard. The ground looks damp, leaves are falling so, understandably, many will not be particularly concerned. I've heard this firsthand on several occasions. Across the road, the lakes are still falling in level. The chalk streams are notably low, running mainly on treated wastewater. 

On this link, the man from SE Water seem confident the rains will arrive later this autumn. They have been pushed forward since August though. November is now the start of the rains for southern England. However, in the worst-case scenario, mid-winter restrictions on a wide scale would be a nightmare. See hosepipe ban extended in video section. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/england/sussex 

I watch the forecasts on BBC iPlayer, and they do mention the lack of rain from time to time but perhaps don't hammer it in enough Beast.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Jiries
13 October 2026 06:06:40
The recent floods in Las Vegas and Death Valley is the only way to end the drought here from this example than drizzle fest days  with fake high 850s which no use, no flow to dams just wet ground and a nuisance.  We need proper thunderstorms and much lower 850s like Nicosia and Death Valley which both don’t have droughts now.
Devonian
13 October 2026 07:29:08

Unless you have a rain gauge, for many people, I suspect this autumn has been bog standard. The ground looks damp, leaves are falling so, understandably, many will not be particularly concerned. I've heard this firsthand on several occasions. Across the road, the lakes are still falling in level. The chalk streams are notably low, running mainly on treated wastewater. 

On this link, the man from SE Water seem confident the rains will arrive later this autumn. They have been pushed forward since August though. November is now the start of the rains for southern England. However, in the worst-case scenario, mid-winter restrictions on a wide scale would be a nightmare. See hosepipe ban extended in video section. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/england/sussex 

I watch the forecasts on BBC iPlayer, and they do mention the lack of rain from time to time but perhaps don't hammer it in enough Beast.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Weather forecasters went on about the winter floods, they don't about the drought - that's odd. They feed (because good news is easier) the 'It's autumn init, we've had enough rain! I'm 'cold' and what about all the leaks' thinking.

Roger Parsons
13 October 2026 07:44:56

Weather forecasters went on about the winter floods, they don't about the drought - that's odd. They feed (because good news is easier) the 'It's autumn init, we've had enough rain! I'm 'cold' and what about all the leaks' thinking.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

I doubt that the media people take the logic that far, Dev. Flood photos may make a better visual impact than dry fields and riverbeds.  Don't get me going on leaks - there are so many here! Constant unexpected road closures. Example:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqlym33yvz9yoeak  leaves villagers questioning hosepipe ban


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Devonian
13 October 2026 07:47:38

I doubt that the media people take the logic that far, Dev. Flood photos may make a better visual impact than dry fields and riverbeds.  Don't get me going on leaks - there are so many here! Constant unexpected road closures. Example:

Lhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqlym33yvz9yoeak  leaves villagers questioning hosepipe ban

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

No rain? No leaks.

Roger Parsons
13 October 2026 07:53:12

No rain? No leaks.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Well, yes - and no fuel, no pothole problems! 🙄


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Devonian
13 October 2026 08:11:36

Well, yes - and no fuel, no pothole problems! 🙄

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

I think I mean that leaks are (and I really am guessing here) a small fraction (or even a fraction) of total use or demand.

Further, unless the whole network is replaced leaks are how it is. You repair a leak, then you get re-repaired leaks, the pipe get nacked, the leaks get worse - less easy to repair. Does anyone want the street dug up and a whole new section put it? Nope. And round it goes. There's a place in our village that's been repaired many times - it'll blow again soon I'm sure and people will complain.

It the Teign valley these a wet spot ('how can there be a trickle and a big puddle there now?'  sort of wet patch) that will mean digging up the main road. People will complain about that too....

We need rain, lots of it, 500 mm minimum by March here now, more like 750 tbh. We've had 15mm this months and 50mm last....

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
13 October 2026 09:54:14
I suppose there are good leaks and there are bad leaks. The good ones percolate into the rocks/subsoil and sometimes help prevent a small stream from drying up. Seen it. The bad ones close roads.  Been there. So I'm sort of laissez-faire about them sometimes. Leaks are often seen of course, as an easy fix by those on the periphery.

One thing no Govt has yet been strong enough to face off the ire of the housebuilders is by making it mandatory for all new builds to have rainwater collection tanks for garden and washing and re-using greywater for toilet flushing. That would reduce the amount of potable water we waste and extract from reservoirs, rivers and so on. Too expensive they say. A feeble, short-sighted excuse IMO.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

MRazzell
13 October 2026 11:10:32

I suppose there are good leaks and there are bad leaks. The good ones percolate into the rocks/subsoil and sometimes help prevent a small stream from drying up. Seen it. The bad ones close roads.  Been there. So I'm sort of laissez-faire about them sometimes. Leaks are often seen of course, as an easy fix by those on the periphery.

One thing no Govt has yet been strong enough to face off the ire of the housebuilders by making it mandatory for all new builds to have rainwater collection tanks for garden and washing and re-using greywater for toilet flushing. That would reduce the amount of potable water we waste and extract from reservoirs, rivers and so on. Too expensive they say. A feeble, short-sighted excuse IMO.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

I'm glad you bought this up NMA - i've been banging this drum for years. As someone who works in construction, and has a fairly seasoned understanding of MEP, i'd say that rainwater harvesting if co-ordinated correctly during the design & build would be a negligible expense to the builder - on a par with solar, probably cheaper. Its belt and braces stuff and such an easy win for the housebuilder, the consumer and the environment.


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
13 October 2026 11:29:28
The technology is all there. Rainwater diverters filter out the crud. Proper tanks, not the plaything 100 litre butts we're encouraged to use, which run out within a day or two's use. Reliable pumps and so on. It's all there. The development across the road has solar panels. How long these last is another matter but I would guess around twenty years is a ballpark figure before the house owner needs to replace them.

But there is no provision for greywater reuse, let alone practical rain capture tanks that can be put in during the build, which, as you say are no great issue to install. You would think the people on the planning departments both sides would know about these things and implement them. But no.  So frustrating for me at least. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Jiries
13 October 2026 11:41:40

The technology is all there. Rainwater diverters filter out the crud. Proper tanks, not the plaything 100 litre butts we're encouraged to use, which run out within a day or two's use. Reliable pumps and so on. It's all there. The development across the road has solar panels. How long these last is another matter but I would guess around twenty years is a ballpark figure before the house owner needs to replace them.

But there is no provision for greywater reuse, let alone practical rain capture tanks that can be put in during the build, which, as you say are no great issue to install. You would think the people on the planning departments both sides would know about these things and implement them. But no.  So frustrating for me at least. 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

They need to follow what Cyprus does they have sufficent dams quite a lot of them for a small island, and each house have a heating and electric solar panels, large white water tanks on their roofs You can see them on pictures on google that every house have one.  They should make it cheaper here to buy and for your own personal use with those solar panels.

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