The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
26 September 2026 15:21:53

Never understood why people not in a drought area keep whining about people who are in one, demonstrating with data, that they are!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Dews don't really break droughts IMO. I read that both the Met Office and BBC predict rain heavy at times, yet the % chance of rain is generally modest to minimal for here. Hope the percentages rise this week but after the 1st October the dry returns in strength perhaps.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Devonian
27 September 2026 17:56:33
Just to say I do read this thread and it is excellent. I've learnt where to get water storage kit, just how damn dry SE Essex is and, yes, I don't get why those not in drought can't understand that others are in a serious situation. Keep informing us  👍

The local reservoirs to me are at ~20% full. Our land's, local land's, most reliable springs are dry, the streams likewise. Will our bore hole keep going for next year? Not unless we get 400mm this winter is my guess. We might yet see that much rain but there is no sign of it atm - the opposite tbh.

Devonian
27 September 2026 18:06:05

Never know whether to post these stats here or the precipitation (lack of) thread so I have posted it in both!

No measurable rain to speak of (2 x 2mm) for two weeks now. Total for last 6 months (24th March - 24th Sept)  132mm with over half of that at the start of June. 39mm total for last 3 months.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Yikes.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
28 September 2026 14:54:00
I'll continue to bang this drum until the time when the water shortage danger is past IMBY. I'm not the only once with concerns though I appreciate some 'think' the drought ended a month or so ago. And all is tickety boo. 

Looks dry, more or less, until the end of October and then who knows?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-2026-summary-reports/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-18-to-24-september-2026 

On the England map the orange shading shows the situation well enough.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 September 2026 15:01:17

I'll continue to bang this drum until the time when the water shortage danger is past IMBY. I'm not the only once with concerns though I appreciate some 'think' the drought ended a month or so ago. And all is tickety boo. 

Looks dry, more or less, until the end of October and then who knows?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-2026-summary-reports/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-18-to-24-september-2026 

On the England map the orange shading shows the situation well enough.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

The map is well worth looking at.

Although our friends in the north have now had a reasonable amount of rain(in the south we haven't even had that) so surface features such as grass growth and germination of field-sown crops can proceed, that rain isn't yet getting into reservoirs, and public water supplies are still effectively operating under drought conditions.


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Jiries
28 September 2026 15:50:26

I'll continue to bang this drum until the time when the water shortage danger is past IMBY. I'm not the only once with concerns though I appreciate some 'think' the drought ended a month or so ago. And all is tickety boo. 

Looks dry, more or less, until the end of October and then who knows?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-2026-summary-reports/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-18-to-24-september-2026 

On the England map the orange shading shows the situation well enough.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

There are some places in Norfolk are slight below sea levels but not as extreme low as Jericho, Palestine which sit at below 400m sea levels while Death Valley is nearly 300m that why when I watch the rainfall radar it always break up to the west of the Valley and regrow again on other side, it seem clouds and rain find it hard to push in areas below sea levels that why Death Valley get little rain most of the time and once in a while major rain event if they have power to push in this areas.  That the reason why the East are much drier and then it rain a lot once it get to North Sea.  I learned this from school about the sea levels height and can't remember how low is in Norfolk, maybe 50-100mm below?

fairweather
28 September 2026 18:47:09

Just to say I do read this thread and it is excellent. I've learnt where to get water storage kit, just how damn dry SE Essex is and, yes, I don't get why those not in drought can't understand that others are in a serious situation. Keep informing us  👍

The local reservoirs to me are at ~20% full. Our land's, local land's, most reliable springs are dry, the streams likewise. Will our bore hole keep going for next year? Not unless we get 400mm this winter is my guess. We might yet see that much rain but there is no sign of it atm - the opposite tbh.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Good to hear from you, though I have been missing your support elsewhere. 😉


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
28 September 2026 18:48:56
One for Darren on Sheppey where Elmley Nature Reserve is and a place I often visit:- 

We have just had the first significant rain of the Autumn on 8th September which was long overdue after the hottest and driest Summer on record at Elmley. The breeding birds have faired relatively well with a brilliant season for lapwing, yellow wagtails and skylarks as well as our barn owls. However, the sustained hot, dry Summer has had several significant impacts on the Reserve's aquatic species, which have been amplified by the relatively low amount of winter rain and a very dry summer of 2025.  The marshes are currently very dry and the remaining pools are now anaerobic (lack oxygen) and stagnant. This has caused a significant number of small fish and larger eels to die. In addition, botulism has broken out amongst ducks kept for shooting on a neighboring farm - this is often caused by vegetation rotting in very warm water and unnaturally dense concentration of birds around the scarce pools. They have worked hard to contain the spread but it has had an impact on several of our wide species, most notably the resident ducks sharing the remaining pools and the predators like marsh harriers which feed on sick ducks. It appears the worst is over and we continue to monitor the situation and act to prevent further spread when necessary.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
28 September 2026 19:42:58
Just been looking at a few more stats. Since the end of January I have had no single day with over 20mm of rain and just 4 over 10mm. One in February, two in June and one in September.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
29 September 2026 20:12:18

I'll continue to bang this drum until the time when the water shortage danger is past IMBY. I'm not the only once with concerns though I appreciate some 'think' the drought ended a month or so ago. And all is tickety boo. 

Looks dry, more or less, until the end of October and then who knows?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-2026-summary-reports/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-18-to-24-september-2026 

On the England map the orange shading shows the situation well enough.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

It’s still pretty dire here. The water level in our pond continues to fall and it’s by far the lowest in our ten years here.  Ours is fed by a couple of pipes that tap into the groundwater just up the lane from us and a few metres higher, and they’ve been dry for months now.

The larger pond about 200 metres up the slight slope from us is just as bad.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



johncs2016
01 October 2026 15:45:15
Here in Scotland, SEPA have just released this week's water scarcity report which can be viewed here .

As there has been some rain in the last week, this week's report is much improved from other recent reports. As a result, all of the areas which were previously at significant water scarcity status have now had their status downgraded to either moderate water scarcity status or alert status.

This leaves us with not a single area at significant water scarcity status which means that all of the previous water extraction restrictions which were in place, have now been lifted as a result.

However, this still comes with a warning that the Lower Tweed catchment area could once again have its status upgraded to significant water scarcity status within the next week unless there is some sustained rainfall in that area over that time.

However, the highest status which any area now has is moderate water scarcity status and even that status is now confined to East Lothian and the Borders.

Edinburgh is still at alert status with Fife, Clackmannanshire, Tayside, the south of Aberdeenshire and the city of Aberdeen also having their status downgraded to alert status.

A couple of areas have had their status downgraded to early warning status and in fact, it is parts of the north Aberdeenshire and the Moray Firth area, along with a large part of central Scotland which are currently at early warning status.

Two areas including Speyside (an area which was really badly affected by last year's water scarcity situation) have now completely returned to normal status and everywhere else which has not been mentioned on this post so far, is currently also at normal status.

From that, it is clear that the worst affected areas are now really in SE Scotland, rather than being in the east of Scotland more generally and that fits in quite nicely with the fact that large parts of England and Wales are still very much in a drought situation.

Here in Scotland, more rain is still going to be needed in order for the recovery to continue but now, river and groundwater levels continue to be at average or high levels across much of the country, but remain low to very low in much of the east of Scotland.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

tierradelfuego
01 October 2026 17:54:00
Another disastrous month down here, a grand total of 26mm for September.

The positives - 90% of the lawn has greened up so it looks to the casual observer/insert whatever you wish like things are getting better.

The reality - another month of well below rainfall. Apart from 2023 the warmest September for at least the last decade. The models showing the next 10 days with about 3mm of rain, rain is always beyond the reliable on the models.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

The Beast from the East
04 October 2026 01:56:01
Never seen the garden so dry in October before! Soil is rock hard like August.  the grass is green again but that is deceptive.  Not a lot of rain in the forecast either even though it will turn colder


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
04 October 2026 09:27:33

Never seen the garden so dry in October before! Soil is rock hard like August.  the grass is green again but that is deceptive.  Not a lot of rain in the forecast either even though it will turn colder

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Would you care to have another Beastial stab as to when the rains will arrive?

I will stick my neck out and forecast a wet summer next year for the south of the UK. Based purely on having a serious garden rainwater collection system in place by then.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

The Beast from the East
05 October 2026 01:37:10

Would you care to have another Beastial stab as to when the rains will arrive?

I will stick my neck out and forecast a wet summer next year for the south of the UK. Based purely on having a serious garden rainwater collection system in place by then.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Friday is looking wet, but probably just enough to keep the grass happy


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 October 2026 07:15:23
Catalonia flood - 2 drowned - Bahrein floods- F1 race chaos - and here?
I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

speckledjim
05 October 2026 07:19:40

Catalonia flood - 2 drowned - Bahrein floods- F1 race chaos - and here?

Originally Posted by: DEW 

No floods in Bahrain, it was Malaysia. 


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 October 2026 07:31:37

No floods in Bahrain, it was Malaysia. 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Oops! 😳😳


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

bledur
05 October 2026 08:05:42
Very dry here but I have known it as dry right through to December. Dry and wet times come in cycles. All exacerbated by a bigger population and lack of investment in storing water.

If not much rain this Winter it will be serious next year IF we get a hot dry summer.

If you read old farming related books ,talk of drought is quite a common occurrence.

Jiries
05 October 2026 08:24:42

Very dry here but I have known it as dry right through to December. Dry and wet times come in cycles. All exacerbated by a bigger population and lack of investment in storing water.

If not much rain this Winter it will be serious next year IF we get a hot dry summer.

If you read old farming related books ,talk of drought is quite a common occurrence.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

if a dry winter happen this time I should be expecting the water company to stop whining about it and start following other countries example with water rationing cuts like in Cyprus before and even in the Philippines during dry seasons.   This way will force those who kept wasting water like over water gardens, long showers and etc.  A cut at certain times will change their behaviour on water use.  

fairweather
05 October 2026 14:38:06

One for Darren on Sheppey where Elmley Nature Reserve is and a place I often visit:- 

We have just had the first significant rain of the Autumn on 8th September which was long overdue after the hottest and driest Summer on record at Elmley. The breeding birds have faired relatively well with a brilliant season for lapwing, yellow wagtails and skylarks as well as our barn owls. However, the sustained hot, dry Summer has had several significant impacts on the Reserve's aquatic species, which have been amplified by the relatively low amount of winter rain and a very dry summer of 2025.  The marshes are currently very dry and the remaining pools are now anaerobic (lack oxygen) and stagnant. This has caused a significant number of small fish and larger eels to die. In addition, botulism has broken out amongst ducks kept for shooting on a neighboring farm - this is often caused by vegetation rotting in very warm water and unnaturally dense concentration of birds around the scarce pools. They have worked hard to contain the spread but it has had an impact on several of our wide species, most notably the resident ducks sharing the remaining pools and the predators like marsh harriers which feed on sick ducks. It appears the worst is over and we continue to monitor the situation and act to prevent further spread when necessary.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Is Darren on holiday? Not seen any posts from him for a while.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
05 October 2026 14:47:20
Just three days with more than 3mm of rain since the end of June here. Lawn has a few green blades here and there following the 16mm at the start of September and a shower that produced 2mm on the last day of September. At least the rain we get now won't evaporate as quickly and the plants have stopped growing. 336mm YTD, images taken just now although they could have been taken in early May.

UserPostedImageUserPostedImage


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
05 October 2026 15:10:03
Looks quite green here, but the ground is like rock!

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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The Beast from the East
06 October 2026 01:10:18

Is Darren on holiday? Not seen any posts from him for a while.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Hope he's ok.  He got the hump on the AI thread and hasn't posted since. But he maybe on one of his Japan trips


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
06 October 2026 10:18:02
More controls possible as reservoir level drops

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmvg6dwwj2jzo 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

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